Investor's Corner
Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 Model 3 output gets conservative estimate from Morgan Stanley
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and its upcoming Gigafactory 3-powered Model 3 push in China recently received a vote of support from Morgan Stanley, which adjusted its estimates for the facility’s start of operations. In a note published on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas stated that Tesla is poised to be China’s “leading luxury EV player,” though he quoted some curiously conservative estimates for local Model 3 production in the country.
Jonas noted that Morgan Stanley’s team had just returned from visiting Chinese suppliers, allowing them to gather “fresh feedback” on Tesla’s plans. Among these is the start of Gigafactory 3’s operations, which Jonas admits will likely be faster than what Morgan Stanley initially anticipated. “Our China team just returned from a visit of local Chinese suppliers with some fresh feedback on Tesla’s progress with its currently under-construction Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. If they’re right, Tesla may be able to ramp China production faster than we have currently anticipated in our model,” Jonas wrote.
Morgan Stanley currently has an “Equal-Weight” rating and a price target of $230 for TSLA shares.
The analyst added that Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 could start as early as November this year. By 2020, Morgan Stanley expects Tesla to produce 35,000 to 40,000 Model 3 in Gigafactory 3, ramping to 60,000 units per year in 2021. Over the next five years, the analysts noted that Tesla would likely lead the country in the luxury electric car market.
While it is notable that Jonas has admitted to Gigafactory 3’s potential to start operations sooner than expected, his expectations for the facility’s Model 3 production rate seems strangely low. At an expected run-rate of 35,000 to 40,000 vehicles per year in 2020, after all, Morgan Stanley is estimating Gigafactory 3 to have an output of only 673-769 Model 3 per week. That’s less than the initial output of Tesla’s sprung structure-based GA4 Model 3 line in Fremont last year.
For 2021, Jonas’ 60,000 per year estimate translates to around 1,150 Model 3 per week. With this estimate, Morgan Stanley seems to be suggesting that after over a year in operations, Gigafactory 3 will only be producing a fraction of Fremont’s weekly Model 3 manufacturing output. Considering China’s large EV market and the sheer scale of Gigafactory 3’s operations, this estimate seems curiously low.
Contrary to Morgan Stanley’s estimates, reports from local Chinese media have pointed to Gigafactory 3 reaching a higher output in 2020. Following a visit to the Gigafactory 3 complex in Shanghai, Ma Chunlei, Deputy Secretary-General of Shanghai Municipal People’s Government and Director of Shanghai Development and Reform Commission, noted that the initial capacity of Tesla’s facility would be around 150,000 units per year or around 3,000 vehicles per week once the facility enters volume production. Other reports from China also hint at Model 3 production starting as early as September this year, barring unexpected delays.
As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +1.85% at $257.04 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Elon Musk
Tesla blacklisted by Swedish pension fund AP7 as it sells entire stake
A Swedish pension fund is offloading its Tesla holdings for good.

Tesla shares have been blacklisted by the Swedish pension fund AP7, who said earlier today that it has “verified violations of labor rights in the United States” by the automaker.
The fund ended up selling its entire stake, which was worth around $1.36 billion when it liquidated its holdings in late May. Reuters first reported on AP7’s move.
Other pension and retirement funds have relinquished some of their Tesla holdings due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in politics, among other reasons, and although the company’s stock has been a great contributor to growth for many funds over the past decade, these managers are not willing to see past the CEO’s right to free speech.
However, AP7 says the move is related not to Musk’s involvement in government nor his political stances. Instead, the fund said it verified several labor rights violations in the U.S.:
“AP7 has decided to blacklist Tesla due to verified violations of labor rights in the United States. Despite several years of dialogue with Tesla, including shareholder proposals in collaboration with other investors, the company has not taken sufficient measures to address the issues.”
Tesla made up about 1 percent of the AP7 Equity Fund, according to a spokesperson. This equated to roughly 13 billion crowns, but the fund’s total assets were about 1,181 billion crowns at the end of May when the Tesla stake was sold off.
Tesla has had its share of labor lawsuits over the past few years, just as any large company deals with at some point or another. There have been claims of restrictions against labor union supporters, including one that Tesla was favored by judges, as they did not want pro-union clothing in the factory. Tesla argued that loose-fitting clothing presented a safety hazard, and the courts agreed.

(Photo: Tesla)
There have also been claims of racism at the Fremont Factory by a former elevator contractor named Owen Diaz. He was awarded a substantial sum of $137m. However, U.S. District Judge William Orrick ruled the $137 million award was excessive, reducing it to $15 million. Diaz rejected this sum.
Another jury awarded Diaz $3.2 million. Diaz’s legal team said this payout was inadequate. He and Tesla ultimately settled for an undisclosed amount.
AP7 did not list any of the current labor violations that it cited as its reason for
Investor's Corner
xAI targets $5 billion debt offering to fuel company goals
Elon Musk’s xAI is targeting a $5B debt raise, led by Morgan Stanley, to scale its artificial intelligence efforts.

xAI’s $5 billion debt offering, marketed by Morgan Stanley, underscores Elon Musk’s ambitious plans to expand the artificial intelligence venture. The xAI package comprises bonds and two loans, highlighting the company’s strategic push to fuel its artificial intelligence development.
Last week, Morgan Stanley began pitching a floating-rate term loan B at 97 cents on the dollar with a variable interest rate of 700 basis points over the SOFR benchmark, one source said. A second option offers a fixed-rate loan and bonds at 12%, with terms contingent on investor appetite. This “best efforts” transaction, where the debt size hinges on demand, reflects cautious lending in an uncertain economic climate.
According to Reuters sources, Morgan Stanley will not guarantee the issue volume or commit its own capital in the xAI deal, marking a shift from past commitments. The change in approach stems from lessons learned during Musk’s 2022 X acquisition when Morgan Stanley and six other banks held $13 billion in debt for over two years.
Morgan Stanley and the six other banks backing Musk’s X acquisition could only dispose of that debt earlier this year. They capitalized on X’s improved operating performance over the previous two quarters as traffic on the platform increased engagement around the U.S. presidential elections. This time, Morgan Stanley’s prudent strategy mitigates similar risks.
Beyond debt, xAI is in talks to raise $20 billion in equity, potentially valuing the company between $120 billion and $200 billion, sources said. In April, Musk hinted at a significant valuation adjustment for xAI, stating he was looking to put a “proper value” on xAI during an investor call.
As xAI pursues this $5 billion debt offering, its financial strategy positions it to lead the AI revolution, blending innovation with market opportunity.
Elon Musk
Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge
Tesla’s future lies beyond cars—with robotaxis, humanoid bots & AI-driven factories. Cathie Wood predicts a 9x surge in 5 years.

Cathie Wood shared that Tesla is her top stock pick. During Steven Bartlett’s podcast “The Diary Of A CEO,” the Ark Invest founder highlighted Tesla’s innovative edge, citing its convergence of robotics, energy storage, and AI.
“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI,” Wood said of Tesla. She emphasized the company’s potential beyond its current offerings, particularly with its Optimus robots.
“And it’s not stopping with robotaxis; there’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” she added.
In June 2024, Ark Invest issued a $2,600 price target for Tesla, which Wood reaffirmed in a March Bloomberg interview, projecting the stock to reach this level within five years. She told Bartlett that Tesla’s Optimus robots would drive productivity gains and create new revenue streams.
Elon Musk echoed Wood’s optimism in a CNBC interview last month.
“We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible,” Musk said.
Tesla’s stock has faced volatility lately, hitting a peak closing price of $479 in December after President Donald Trump’s election win. However, Musk’s involvement with the White House DOGE office triggered protests and boycotts, contributing to a stock decline of over 40% from mid-December highs by March.
The volatility in Tesla stock alarmed investors, who urged Musk to refocus on the company. In a May earnings call, Musk responded, stating he would be “scaling down his involvement with DOGE to focus on Tesla.” Through it all, Cathie Wood and Ark Invest maintained their faith in Tesla. Wood, in particular, predicted that the “brand damage” Tesla experienced earlier this year would not be long term.
Despite recent fluctuations, Wood’s confidence in Tesla underscores its potential to redefine industries through AI and robotics. As Musk shifts his focus back to Tesla, the company’s advancements in Optimus and other innovations could drive it toward Wood’s ambitious $2,600 target, positioning Tesla as a leader in the evolving tech landscape.
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