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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2
Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.
On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.
However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.
Delivery Beat
Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.
In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.
Inventory Reduction
Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.
This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.
Jonas writes:
“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”
Energy Storage Deployments
Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.
Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.
This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.
Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024
Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.
The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:
“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Tesla Mojo
Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”
Investors were also asked this interesting question:
“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”
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Just hours after Starship Flight 13 achieved a successful soft splashdown of its upper stage in the Indian Ocean on July 24, Elon Musk announced an ambitious next step for the company’s next launch of the rocket.
“Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on [the] next flight,” the SpaceX CEO posted on X on Friday.
That “next flight” is expected to be Flight 14. The plan involves returning the Starship upper stage, commonly called the “ship,” to the Starbase launch tower in Texas and catching it mid-air using the same mechanical “chopsticks” arms that have already proven themselves with the Super Heavy booster.
Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 25, 2026
A successful catch would mark the first time an orbital-class upper stage has been recovered this way, advancing SpaceX’s goal of full and rapid reusability for the entire vehicle.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the tower-catch technique multiple times with Super Heavy. The first successful catch came on Flight 5 in October 2024, when Booster 12 was plucked from the sky by the Mechazilla arms. Subsequent flights, including those involving Boosters 14 and 15, repeated the feat. Several of those recovered boosters were later inspected, refurbished, and flown again, proving the system’s viability for quick turnaround.
Traditional reusable rockets, such as SpaceX’s own Falcon 9 or Blue Origin’s New Shepard, land on legs either on land or droneships. Rocket Lab has recovered its small Electron first stages by helicopter, but those are far lighter vehicles.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
The China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), a subsidiary of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. (CASC), completed a catch of its booster on July 10. They are the only entity besides SpaceX to attempt and complete the feat.
Flight 13 provided encouraging data. The ship executed a controlled reentry, flipped, and soft-landed intact in the ocean after deploying Starlink satellites, offering the first clear post-splashdown views of an undamaged heat shield. The Super Heavy booster, meanwhile, experienced a harder splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico.
Musk has previously stressed that ship catches would only follow multiple successful soft ocean landings to minimize risk of debris over land.
If Flight 14 succeeds, SpaceX would take a major stride toward routine, rapid reuse of both stages—critical for lowering launch costs and supporting ambitious plans for lunar and Mars missions. For now, teams are reviewing the Flight 13 data. Should everything check out, the next Starship flight could deliver one of the most spectacular recoveries in aerospace history.
In a move echoing its earlier commitment to open innovation, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced recently that the company plans to make the design and software of its Model S and Model X fully open source.
This follows the same approach Tesla took with its original Roadster, releasing all available design, engineering, and diagnostic materials in November 2023 so that “whatever we have, you now have.”
Just as Tesla made the original Roadster design & software open source, we plan to do the same with Model S & X
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 24, 2026
The Model S, introduced in 2012, was Tesla’s first mass-produced vehicle and a groundbreaking luxury electric sedan. It offered impressive range, rapid acceleration, and over-the-air software updates that redefined expectations for electric cars.
The Model X, launched in 2015, built on that foundation as a high-performance electric SUV notable for its distinctive falcon-wing doors, spacious interior, and advanced safety features. Both models served as flagships that helped establish Tesla as a leader in the EV industry and popularized long-range battery-electric vehicles.
Production of the Model S and Model X was wound down earlier in 2026, with manufacturing ending in the second quarter. Tesla redirected the Fremont factory space previously used for these vehicles toward higher-priority projects, including Optimus humanoid robots and the Cybercab autonomous vehicle.
By the time of Musk’s open-source announcement, custom orders had closed and only remaining inventory was available.
Open-sourcing the designs and software offers several clear advantages. Owners of these aging but still capable vehicles gain better access to technical documentation, diagnostic tools, and software resources, making independent repairs and modifications easier and more affordable.
Independent repair shops and third-party specialists can support the large existing fleet without relying solely on Tesla’s service network. Enthusiasts and engineers can study real-world implementations of Tesla’s battery, powertrain, and software systems, potentially accelerating broader industry progress in electric mobility.
The step aligns with Tesla’s 2014 patent pledge and its overall mission to advance sustainable transport by sharing hard-won knowledge rather than locking it behind proprietary walls.
By releasing these materials now that the models have left production, Tesla ensures continued support for its early adopters while freeing internal resources for future technologies. The open-source release of the original Roadster already enabled simulations, community projects, and deeper technical understanding.
Extending that practice to the Model S and Model X should deliver similar benefits on a larger scale, helping keep these influential vehicles relevant and repairable for years to come
Tesla flexed one incredible Robotaxi metric during the Q2 Earnings Call that skeptics have to hate to hear. The company’s platform has already driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised ride-hailing across several states with no notable incidents.
During the company’s Q2 Earnings Call on Wednesday, Vice President of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said:
“First of all, I’d like to state that the Robotaxi program has been operating extremely well. Especially in terms of safety, the program has had an impeccable safety record. We have driven more than 380,000 miles of unsupervised Robotaxi, now across six cities in two different states. We have had zero notable incidents. Any reports have been of other actors impacting us when we were stationary. I like to emphasize how safe the operation has been so far. Zero notable incidents over 380,000 miles.”
Elluswamy’s claim over Robotaxi miles is a significant milestone for Tesla in the grand scheme, especially considering this is a sizeable number of miles without any incident.
0 notable incidents across over 380,000 miles traveled by Robotaxi
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 22, 2026
Tesla’s self-driving approach is much different than that of other companies. Tesla has maintained that vision is the only thing needed to have a solid and effective self-driving suite. Many self-driving companies utilize things like LiDAR, sensors, and other elements to improve performance, but Elluswamy sent a jab at those who believe it’s needed.
“Historically, the so-called experts have always claimed that you need LiDARs, radars, HD maps, and the entire kitchen sink to drive safely. Here we show that such is not true. You can have safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla’s entire AI approach.”
The feat of accumulating this many miles without any driver behind the wheel is impressive. The thing is, Tesla is also doing this across several different locations, with varying traffic rules, pedestrian levels, weather patterns, and other important factors.
While Tesla is not ready to roll out an unsupervised platform completely, it is a slow but steady indication that the company is well on its way to figuring things out.
The company’s attitude toward expansion is slow, safe, and controlled, and despite this huge milestone, it will still be some time until we see Tesla truly unleash unsupervised rides more aggressively.
SpaceX wants to catch Starship for launch 14, Elon Musk says
Tesla to open source Model S and Model X designs and software
