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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

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However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

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This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

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Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

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The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk hints at “official ceremony” with throwback photo to close Tesla Model S, Model X chapter

Elon Musk promises an official ceremony to mark the end of Tesla Model S and Model X production.

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lon Musk at the Tesla Model S production launch at the Fremont factory, June 2012. Photo shared by Musk on X, March 2026.

Tesla has officially begun winding down production of the Model S and Model X, sending farewell emails to U.S. customers on March 27 and updating the website to reflect the end of the line. Shoppers visiting Tesla.com now find only a limited set of Model S and Model X inventory units available for purchase, with no option to configure  a new factory build. The move formalizes what CEO Elon Musk announced on the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call in January, when he said it was “time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge.”

Musk posted on X a throwback photo of himself speaking at the Model S production launch in 2012, and noting “We will have an official ceremony to mark the ending of an era. I love those cars.”

The mention of an official ceremony is notable. Tesla has not held a formal farewell event for a vehicle before, and Musk’s wording suggests this will be something deliberate rather than a quiet line shutdown. Given that Musk’s X post shows a photo of him on stage with a microphone in front of an audience at the Fremont factory, it wouldn’t be too far-fetched to expect a closing ceremony to take place at the same location. Perhaps? Whether it becomes a public event, a private gathering for employees, or a livestreamed moment on X remains to be seen.

The Model S first went on sale nearly fifteen years ago and was Tesla’s first fully in-house designed vehicle, proving that an electric car could be fast, desirable, and capable of long distance on a single charge. The Model X followed in 2015, turning heads with its unmistakable and distinctive falcon-wing doors, while becoming one of the first all-electric SUVs on the market. Tesla’s two flagship vehicles would ultimately push legacy automakers to take all-electric transportation seriously and help fund development of the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y.

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By 2025, however, both models had been reduced to a rounding error in Tesla’s sales figures. Musk was direct about what comes next, stating “We are going to convert that production space to an Optimus factory. It’s part of our overall shift to an autonomous future.”

Elon Musk’s $10 Trillion robot: Inside Tesla’s push to mass produce Optimus

That shift is already underway. Tesla officially started Optimus Gen 3 production at its Fremont factory in January 2026, with the line targeting a run rate of one million units per year. The Gen 3 robot features 22 degrees of freedom per hand, runs on Tesla’s AI5 chip, and shares the same neural network architecture as Full Self-Driving. A dedicated Optimus factory at Gigafactory Texas is also under construction, with a planned annual capacity of 10 million units. The production lines that once built the Model S and Model X are being converted to support that ramp.

Tesla confirmed it will continue to support existing owners with service, software updates, and parts for as long as people own the vehicles. For buyers still interested in a new example, remaining U.S. inventory is discounted and the window is closing fast.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk announces disappointing Tesla Optimus update

In a post on X on March 31, Musk stated that Optimus 3 is mobile but requires some finishing touches before it is ready to be shown to the world. This update comes on the final day of the first quarter, a period when Tesla had previously signaled expectations for a Gen 3 reveal.

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Credit: Tesla China

Elon Musk announced a disappointing update to the unveiling of Tesla Optimus and its third-generation iteration, missing a timeline it aimed to hit in the first quarter of the year.

Musk has confirmed that the highly anticipated Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot is already walking around and operational, yet the public unveiling will face a short delay as the company applies final refinements.

In a post on X on March 31, Musk stated that Optimus 3 is mobile but requires some finishing touches before it is ready to be shown to the world. This update comes on the final day of the first quarter, a period when Tesla had previously signaled expectations for a Gen 3 reveal.

The announcement follows reports of Optimus Gen 3 appearing at the Tesla Diner in Los Angeles, where it was observed serving and moving about until sunset. Images and videos shared by observers captured the robot in action, highlighting its progress in real-world mobility.

Tesla had aimed to showcase the production intent version of Optimus Gen 3 during the first quarter of 2026, positioning it as a major step toward factory deployment and eventual commercial availability. Musk has described the robot as featuring advanced capabilities, including highly dexterous hands with significant degrees of freedom, powered by Tesla’s AI systems for complex tasks.

This minor postponement aligns with Tesla’s iterative approach to development. Earlier statements from Musk indicated that Gen 3 would represent the most advanced humanoid robot yet, designed primarily for internal factory use before scaling to external customers.

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Elon Musk’s $10 Trillion robot: Inside Tesla’s push to mass produce Optimus

Production timelines point toward low-volume output starting in the summer of 2026, with volume ramp-up targeted for 2027. The delay underscores the company’s commitment to quality over speed, ensuring the robot meets rigorous standards for safety and performance in practical environments.

Optimus represents a cornerstone of Tesla’s long-term vision beyond electric vehicles. Musk has repeatedly emphasized that successful humanoid robotics could transform industries by addressing labor shortages and enabling new forms of productivity.

Competitors in the space continue to advance their own platforms, yet Tesla’s vertical integration, from custom actuators to end-to-end AI training, positions Optimus as a potential leader. Community reactions on social media range from excitement over visible progress to impatience with shifting timelines, a familiar pattern in Tesla’s innovation journey.

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Investors and enthusiasts view Optimus as critical to Tesla’s valuation, potentially surpassing its automotive business in scale. With the robot already demonstrating walking and basic interactions, the finishing touches likely involve software polishing, hardware fine-tuning, and reliability enhancements.

Musk’s update suggests the reveal could arrive in the coming weeks or months, maintaining momentum toward broader deployment.

As Tesla pushes the boundaries of physical artificial intelligence, this latest development keeps Optimus in the spotlight. The company continues to prioritize rapid iteration while delivering on its promises to shareholders and customers. The robotics revolution at Tesla appears closer than ever, promising profound impacts on manufacturing, services, and daily life in the years ahead.

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Elon Musk

Countdown: America is going back to the Moon and SpaceX holds the key to what comes after

NASA’s Artemis II launches Wednesday, sending humans near the Moon for the first time since 1972.

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For the first time since Apollo 17 touched down on the lunar surface in December 1972, the United States is sending humans back toward the Moon. NASA’s Artemis II mission is set to launch as early as this week from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying four astronauts on a 10-day journey around the Moon and back to Earth. It will not land anyone on the surface this time, but it is the first crewed flight in over half a century to travel beyond low Earth orbit, and it sets the stage for Elon Musk’s SpaceX missions to follow.

The mission uses NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and the Orion spacecraft, which will fly around the Moon before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean around April 10. For context, an uncrewed Artemis I flew the same path in 2022, proving the hardware worked. Artemis II now tests it with people aboard.

According to NASA’s official countdown blog, launch preparations are on track with an 80 percent chance of favorable weather. “Hey, let’s go to the moon!” Commander Wiseman told reporters upon arriving at Kennedy Space Center.

Source: NASA

Beyond Artemis II lies the lander question, and that is where SpaceX enters directly. In 2021, NASA awarded SpaceX a $2.89 billion contract to develop the Starship Human Landing System, a modified version of Starship designed to ferry astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface. The original plan called for SpaceX to deliver that lander for Artemis III, which was to be the first crewed lunar landing. Timing for Starship development, however, caused NASA to restructure the mission sequence entirely.

Before SpaceX’s Starship Human Landing System (HLS) can put anyone on the Moon, it has to solve a problem no rocket has demonstrated at scale, which is refueling in orbit. Because the Starship HLS requires approximately ten tanker launches worth of propellant loaded into a depot in low Earth orbit before it has enough fuel to reach the lunar surface, SpaceX plans to conduct this refueling process using its upgraded V3 Starship. And until that demonstration flies and succeeds, the Starship moon lander remains a question mark.

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SpaceX’s Starship V3 is almost ready and it will change space travel forever

In February 2026, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman confirmed that Artemis III, now planned for mid-2027, and will instead test lunar landers in low Earth orbit, with the actual landing pushed to Artemis IV that’s targeted for 2028.

Musk responded to earlier criticism of SpaceX’s schedule by posting on X that his company is “moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry,” and added that “Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission.” The contract competition was also reopened in October 2025 by then NASA chief Sean Duffy, who cited Starship’s delays and said the agency needed speed given China’s own stated goal of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2030.


Artemis came from the first Trump administration’s 2017 Space Policy Directive 1, which directed NASA to return humans to the Moon. The program picked up pace through the 2020s, with the Orion spacecraft and SLS taking years to develop at enormous costs. SpaceX entered the picture in 2021 as the chosen lander contractor, tying the commercial space sector into what had historically been an all government undertaking.

Whether SpaceX’s Starship ultimately carries astronauts to the lunar surface or shares that role with Blue Origin’s competing lander, this week’s Artemis II launch is the necessary first step. Getting four humans to the Moon’s vicinity and back safely is the proof of concept everything else depends on.

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