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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

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Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

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“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

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Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Cybertruck

Tesla begins wide rollout of Full Self-Driving v14 to Cybertruck

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Credit: Weibo (via YYDS on X)

Tesla has officially begun the wide rollout of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14 to the Cybertruck about a month after the company started rolling it out to other vehicles in the fleet.

On Monday, Tesla officially started rolling out v14.1.5 to Cybertruck owners, the first FSD v14 rollout for owners of the all-electric pickup.

Owners have been anxiously waiting for Tesla to begin the wide release of v14 to Cybertruck, as the company said it would refine the suite for the vehicle.

Tesla has finally started rolling out to many owners, who are reporting that their Cybertrucks are downloading Software Update 2025.38.8.5, which contains FSD v14.1.5:

Tesla has to be more cautious with rolling out FSD on the Cybertruck than on other vehicles for a few reasons. Initially, the Cybertruck utilizes an all-wheel steering system that turns differently than the S3XY lineup. This creates a challenge for the Tesla AI team as they have to cater to this specific maneuvering change.

Additionally, the Cybertruck is much larger, and the exterior cameras responsible for seeing the vehicle’s surroundings are placed differently than those of the other vehicles.

This requires additional calibration to ensure safety.

The full release notes for Full Self-Driving v14.1.5 are as follows:

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  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
  • Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
  • Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
  • Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
  • Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
  • Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
  • Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
  • Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
  • Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!

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Elon Musk shuts down Tesla ‘AMG’ division speculation: ‘Focus is autonomy’

“I think it’s best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla’s focus is autonomous cars, building futuristic autonomous cars. We want the future to look like the future.”

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Credit: Unplugged Performance

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was asked by Joe Rogan late last week whether the company would ever consider establishing an “AMG division” like Mercedes-Benz has established for powerful, race-inspired vehicles.

However, Musk turned down any talk of that, highlighting that the company is laser-focused on autonomous vehicles, seemingly hinting that any distraction from autonomy would be a detriment to the future.

Rogan drives a Tesla Model S himself, but it is not your run-of-the-mill all-electric sedan. Already outfitted with the Plaid powertrain that Tesla developed, Rogan took his vehicle to Unplugged Performance for a true performance outfitting.

The vehicle is completely overhauled with performance parts and seats. Known as the Model S-APEX, Rogan took delivery of it from Unplugged in January.

Rogan asked Musk on Friday during his most recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast whether Tesla would ever establish an “AMG division” that would focus on catering Teslas to performance-based standards.

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Musk said:

“I think it’s best to leave that to the custom shops. Tesla’s focus is autonomous cars, building futuristic autonomous cars. We want the future to look like the future.”

Tesla fans have said for years that the company should consider acquiring Unplugged Performance and its Upfit Tesla division, which recently outfitted the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department’s fleet of Cybertruck cruisers.

However, it seems Tesla will keep things separate. Musk is primarily focused on autonomy, which will drive the technology forward and drive shareholder growth. Something like an outfitter for performance would be a cool thing for the owners who have the interest and the money.

It’s not a tremendous revenue driver or anything that would contribute to the financial state of the company. Mercedes-Benz, for example, is more accessible for consumers as it sold over 140,000 units from its AMG brand in 2024.

Tesla Model Y driver starts race in reverse, still wins against AMG SUV

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It helps with driving revenue higher by as much as 15 percent compared to similar models that are not AMGs. However, would Tesla see this much of a benefit? Likely not, because the Performance trim already caters to many owners.

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Cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck fleet takes over at SpaceX’s Starbase

Interestingly, the Cybertruck uses the same exterior, a stainless steel alloy, as SpaceX rockets. This synergy between the two companies and their very different products shows a very unified mentality between Musk companies.

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Credit: @derek1ee | X

Tesla Cybertrucks have taken over at SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas, as hundreds of the all-electric pickup trucks were spotted late last week rounding out a massive fleet of vehicles.

The Cybertruck fleet is geared toward replacing gas vehicles that are used at Starbase for everyday operations. The only surprise about this is that it was not done sooner:

Deliveries have been going on for a few weeks, as Cybertrucks have made their way across the state of Texas from Austin to Starbase so they could be included in SpaceX’s fleet of vehicles at the facility.

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Interestingly, the Cybertruck uses the same exterior, a stainless steel alloy, as SpaceX rockets. This synergy between the two companies and their very different products shows a very unified mentality between Musk companies.

However, there are some other perspectives to consider as SpaceX is utilizing such a massive fleet of Cybertrucks. Some media outlets (unsurprisingly) are seeing this as a move of weakness by both Tesla and SpaceX, as the aerospace company is, in a sense, “bailing out” lagging sales for the all-electric pickup.

It’s no secret that Tesla has struggled with the Cybertruck this year, and deliveries have been underwhelming in the sense that the company was anticipating between 1 million and 2 million orders for the vehicle before it was widely produced.

A lot of things changed with the Cybertruck between its 2019 unveiling and 2023 initial deliveries, most notably, price.

The price of the Cybertruck swelled significantly and priced out many of those who had pre-ordered it. Some have weighed the option of whether this purchase was a way to get rid of sitting inventory.

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However, it seems more logical to consider the fact that SpaceX was likely always going to transition to Teslas for its fleet, especially at Starship, at some point.

It doesn’t seem out of the question that one Musk company would utilize another Musk company’s products, especially considering the Cybertruck has been teased as the vehicle that would be present on Mars.

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