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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

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However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

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This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

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Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

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The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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NASA’s first human outpost on the Moon starts now – SpaceX on deck

NASA named the rovers, landers, and vendors that will build America’s first Moon Base.

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NASA has laid out its most detailed Moon Base plan to date, describing a permanent outpost near the Moon’s south pole that the agency intends to build over the coming decade as a direct stepping stone to Mars. “The Moon Base will be America’s and humanity’s first outpost on another celestial world,” NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said, adding that every mission crewed and uncrewed “will be a learning opportunity as we return to the lunar surface, build the infrastructure to stay, and master the skills required to live and operate in one of the most demanding and dangerous environments imaginable.”

The plan is structured in three phases involving both uncrewed and crewed missions to deliver equipment, vehicles, and infrastructure to the surface, with the first three moon base missions targeted to launch before the end of 2026.

Moon Base I, targeting fall 2026, will use Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1 lander to deliver scientific instruments to the Shackleton Connecting Ridge, the same region where Artemis astronauts will land. Moon Base II will send Astrobotic’s Griffin lander carrying more than 1,100 pounds of cargo including Astrolab’s FLIP rover to begin developing mobility systems on the surface. Moon Base III will carry the Lunar Vertex science mission on Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C Trinity lander to study lunar swirls near the south pole, with ESA and Korean science payloads aboard.

Elon Musk pivots SpaceX plans to Moon base before Mars

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On the rover side, NASA awarded Astrolab $219 million and Lunar Outpost $220 million to build the first phase of Lunar Terrain Vehicles, with both rovers targeted for deployment to the lunar surface by 2028. Astrolab’s crewed rover weighs roughly 2,000 pounds and can reach over 6 mph. Lunar Outpost’s Pegasus rover can operate autonomously or via remote control at over 9 mph. Blue Origin separately received $188 million with an option worth $280.4 million to deliver cargo landers for rover transport.

NASA also confirmed that MoonFall, a mission deploying four survey drones to scout Artemis landing sites, has selected Firefly Aerospace to build the transport spacecraft, with a 2028 launch target.

SpaceX sits at the center of that commercial layer. SpaceX holds the NASA Human Landing System contract for the Starship-derived lander that will put astronauts on the surface under Artemis IV, currently targeting 2028. Before that can happen, SpaceX must demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer at scale, a process requiring multiple Starship tanker launches to fuel a single mission. Water ice at the lunar south pole is central to the base’s long-term viability, as it can be converted into drinking water, breathable oxygen, and rocket fuel, directly reducing dependence on Earth resupply. That resource loop becomes far more practical if Starship can land and be refueled on or near the Moon itself.

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Elon Musk has publicly stated that Starship V3, which recently completed its first flight, should be capable enough for initial Mars missions. The Moon Base plan announced Tuesday is the infrastructure layer that connects everything between those two ambitions, and SpaceX is the only American company currently contracted to build the rocket that gets humans to either destination.

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Tesla patent reveals strategy for solving major Full Self-Driving, Optimus issue

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Credit: Tesla

A new Tesla patent that has been granted to the company this week has revealed a potential strategy for solving a major issue that could impact both the Full Self-Driving suite and Optimus.

The patent, which is No. 12,636,684, describes a “Lens Cleaning System,” and was submitted by Tesla in May 2025.

The language in the patent details a lens cleaning system that can dispense fluid and wipe it away with a wiper assembly.

This would effectively clean any debris that would potentially impact the visibility of the cameras on Tesla automobiles or Optimus’s camera eyes. Perhaps the most pertinent example is through the Full Self-Driving suite, as debris that can accumulate on the vehicle’s exterior cameras can impact the suite’s ability to operate effectively.

This requires a remedy through manual cleaning, but this patent hints that Tesla could be planning to implement this new technology on its upcoming vehicles.

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Interestingly, we have started to see it on some Robotaxi vehicles, and it will likely be included in the Cybercab, especially as that vehicle will enable full autonomy.

Back in January, the first Model Y Robotaxi units were spotted with camera washers on the side repeaters, as the video below shows fluid squirting and rinsing off any debris that is limiting visibility.

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This hardware patent does bring up an interesting question for those of us who own Teslas with AI4 and have been told that our cars will one day be capable of full autonomy: Will this washer be available as a retrofit on already-built cars?

Perhaps the “Lens Cleaning System” patent is a good look at one way Tesla plans to combat one of the most obvious issues of autonomy that utilizes a camera-based system. For Optimus, it could be less needed as it could be manually cleaned by owners. For cars, it seems like a bigger necessity, especially as autonomy nears and Tesla gets close to launching a feature-complete FSD suite.

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SpaceX Starlink gets its latest airline adoptee, grabbing three of the ‘Big Four’

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Credit: American Airlines

SpaceX’s Starlink product has just gotten its latest airline adoptee, and the move marks the successful partnership of three of the “Big Four” U.S. airlines.

American Airlines announced on Tuesday that it would utilize Starlink in more than 500 narrowbody aircraft beginning in the first quarter of 2027. These include the Airbus aircraft in its fleet, including the new A321XLR and A321neo.

With the new partnership with American Airlines, Starlink is now present on three of the largest airlines in the country: American, United, and Southwest.

Starlink gets its latest airline adoptee for stable and reliable internet access

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Starlink’s VP of Enterprise Sales, Jason Fritch, said:

“We are proud to bring Starlink on board American Airlines, delivering fast and reliable internet to passengers and crew. Whether traveling for leisure or business, Starlink enables a fully connected experience gate to gate, making every flight smoother and more enjoyable.”

Additionally, American Airlines Chief Customer Officer, Heather Garboden, said:

“As a premium global airline, we are continuously seeking out world-class partners like Starlink to deliver what our customers need and want. The addition of Starlink solidifies American as a leading airline in keeping passengers connected in flight.”

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Starlink has been on a tear over the past year, as it has continued to be adopted by a wide variety of airlines as a more consistent and reliable way to provide WiFi to its passengers. It has already gained a great reputation among residential users, but its biggest commercial application appears to be how it is being used in the air.

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The only airline of the Big Four not to adopt Starlink thus far is Delta, which chose to opt for the alternative, which is Amazon Leo. CEO Ed Bastian said to Bloomberg that Delta chose Amazon’s product over Starlink’s because “the opportunities, in terms of the improved bandwidth with a much lower price point than what we’ve ever seen from Starlink, will make a big difference.”

Delta will not start installing Amazon Leo until 2028.

“Of course, we expect Starlink will be warning people that we’re going to go with an inferior product,” Bastian said. “But I’m not too worried about partnering with Amazon.”

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