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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2

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Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.

On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.

Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates

The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.

However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.

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Delivery Beat

Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.

In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.

Inventory Reduction

Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.

This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.

Jonas writes:

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“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”

Energy Storage Deployments

Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.

Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.

This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.

Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024

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Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.

The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:

“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”

Tesla Mojo

Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”

Investors were also asked this interesting question:

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“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla launches new color from Gigafactory Berlin

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has launched a new color at Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, home of the company’s “world-class paint shop,” as Elon Musk once called it.

Bringing a new color to Tesla’s Model Y, there are now five available colors for those who will receive a vehicle from Gigafactory Berlin, with four of them being colors offered in other markets.

However, there is now one distinct color that is only available in Germany: Marine Blue.

Priced at €1,300, Marine Blue will cost the same as both Diamond Black and Stealth Grey, while Quicksilver and Ultra Red are available for double the price.

It is the third shade of blue Tesla offers across its lineup, as Deep Metallic Blue and Glacier Blue are also offered, but in other markets.

Tesla has routinely flexed Giga Berlin for having the most advanced paint shop throughout its factories, and it has produced some interesting colors over the past few years, some of which were truly awesome.

Tesla Giga Berlin is getting a world-class paint shop, new color ‘layers’ to come

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In 2020, Musk said, “Giga Berlin will have the world’s most advanced paint shop, with more layers of stunning colors that subtly change with curvature.”

He also detailed the company’s plans to upgrade the Fremont and Shanghai paint shops. Gigafactory Texas was not yet unveiled. Tesla has worked to improve those facilities, especially in Fremont.

It was able to roll out the new Diamond Black color earlier this year.

However, Giga Berlin seems to remain the standard in terms of paint for Tesla. It routinely offers new colors.

For example, back in 2022, Tesla rolled out its familiar Quicksilver color for the Model Y, while also introducing Midnight Cherry Red, a color close to burgundy. However, the company chose to discontinue the color after determining internally that customers no longer wanted to buy it.

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Midnight Cherry Red was removed as an option earlier this year, likely to make way for the development of the new Marine Blue.

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Tesla Autopilot visualization gets big upgrade with tons of new additions

The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.

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Credit: @greentheonly | X

Tesla’s Autopilot visualization just got a big upgrade as the company added tons of new additions to what it will be able to render in terms of a vehicle’s surroundings.

The AP visualization shows up on the center touchscreen and illustrates the surroundings of the cars. It has gotten better in recent years, as it is able to outline types of vehicles, pedestrians, animals, and more.

Tesla just fixed a four-year-old bug with Full Self-Driving visualization

However, it still does not have every single application, and acquiring them will take some time. If an object or vehicle is visible to the vehicle but an accurate render is not available, the car will instead pick whatever is closest.

For example, I passed an Amish family yesterday in Lancaster, PA, and instead of illustrating the horse and carriage, it simply showed a small box truck.

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In an effort to make the Autopilot and Full Self-Driving suites more robust and accurate, Tesla has added a substantial amount of vehicle renders, which will become available in the coming weeks.

The visualizations were found by Tesla hacker @greentheonly, who posted them on X.

The new visualization renders are:

  • Ambulance
  • Firetruck
  • Garbage Truck
  • Schoolbus
  • European Semi Truck
  • Golf Cart
  • Person on a Scooter
  • Person on a Skateboard
  • Stroller
  • Street Sweeper
  • Three-Wheeler
  • Trailer
  • Train
  • Tram
  • Person in a Wheelchair

Here is an image with all of the Autopilot visualization renders:

Credit: Green

The visualization is a crucial part of manual operation and can be considered a distinct advantage that Tesla has over other companies.

It continues to be an effort that Tesla invests heavily in, as it keeps refining the suite and making it more robust with additional visualizations and animations.

Recently, it was revealed that Tesla is planning to utilize Unreal Engine for driver visualization to create a realistic depiction of the vehicle’s environment. Tesla has not yet confirmed this, but coding found with the Model S and Model X showed it could be coming in the near future.

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Tesla dominates best-selling EVs in Q3, but there’s one disappointment

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla dominated the sales figures for electric vehicles in the third quarter in the United States, but there was one disappointment: the Cybertruck.

As a whole, the EV industry benefitted from the loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit in Q3, which was something many expected. As the credit expired, consumers rushed to showrooms to take the credit and remove $7,500 from the purchase price of their new vehicle.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

It was a very interesting time for many companies as they scrambled to figure out how to push as many vehicles out the door as they could in preparation for the tax credit’s removal. In typical fashion, Tesla was able to top every manufacturer and secure a dominating portion of the overall market in Q3.

However, some other OEMs pulled out some surprises, including Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford, which managed to get two vehicles in the top 10, as many as Tesla.

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Cox Automotive compiled the data in its Q3 Electric Vehicle Sales Report:

  1. Tesla Model Y – 114,897
  2. Tesla Model 3 – 53,857
  3. Chevrolet Equinox EV – 25,085
  4. Hyundai Ioniq 5 – 21,999
  5. Honda Prologue – 20,236
  6. Ford Mustang Mach-E – 20,177
  7. Volkswagen ID.4 – 12,470
  8. Audi Q6 e-tron – 10,299
  9. Ford F-150 Lightning – 10,005
  10. Rivian R1S – 8,184

10.5 percent of the automotive sales in the U.S. in Q3 were electric, a new record that surpasses that of Q3 2024, where the total share of sales for EVs was 8.6 percent.

Now, the disappointment that is evident from this list is the fact that there is no Tesla Cybertruck listed. That’s because it was the second-best-selling EV pickup on the market. The company sold 5,385 Cybertruck units in Q3.

The Cybertruck has been a vehicle that has confused many Tesla fans and owners, especially considering the company had such stratospheric expectations for the vehicle while it was in development. Reservation trackers had the truck sitting between one million and two million orders, but it has not lived up to that.

Pricing is the main issue with Cybertruck. Tesla introduced the pickup with Single, Dual, and Tri-motor configurations, priced at $39,990, $49,990, and $69,990. Those price points are simply a thing of the past.

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