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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2
Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.
On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.
However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.
Delivery Beat
Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.
In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.
Inventory Reduction
Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.
This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.
Jonas writes:
“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”
Energy Storage Deployments
Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.
Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.
This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.
Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024
Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.
The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:
“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Tesla Mojo
Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”
Investors were also asked this interesting question:
“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”
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News
Tesla Cybercab display highlights interior wizardry in the small two-seater
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
The Tesla Cybercab is currently on display at the U.S. Department of Transportation in Washington, D.C., and observations of the production vehicle are highlighting some of its notable design details.
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
Observers of the Cybercab display unit noted that the two-seat Robotaxi provides unusually generous legroom for a vehicle of its size. Based on the vehicle’s video, the compact two-seater appears to offer more legroom than Tesla’s larger vehicles such as the Model Y, Model X, and Cybertruck.
The Cybercab’s layout allows Tesla to dedicate nearly the entire cabin to passengers. The vehicle is designed without a steering wheel or pedals, which helps maximize interior space.
Footage from the display also highlights the Cybercab’s large center screen, which is positioned prominently in front of the passenger bench. The display appears intended to provide entertainment and ride information while the vehicle operates autonomously.
Images of the vehicle also show an additional camera integrated into the Cybercab’s C-pillar. The extra camera appears to expand the vehicle’s field of view, which would be useful as Tesla works toward fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving.
Tesla engineers have previously explained that the Cybercab was designed to be highly efficient both in manufacturing and in operation. Cybercab Lead Engineer Eric E. stated in 2024 that the Robotaxi would be built with roughly half the number of parts used in a Model 3 sedan.
“Two seats unlocks a lot of opportunity aerodynamically. It also means we cut the part count of Cybercab down by a substantial margin. We’re gonna be delivering a car that has roughly half the parts of Model 3 today,” the Tesla engineer said.
The Tesla engineer also noted that the Cybercab’s cargo area can accommodate multiple golf bags, two carry-on suitcases, and two full-size checked bags. The trunk can also fit certain bicycles and a foldable wheelchair depending on size, which is quite impressive for a small car like the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI wins permit for power plant supporting AI data centers
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
Mississippi regulators have approved a permit allowing Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI to construct a natural gas power plant in Southaven. The facility is expected to support the company’s expanding AI infrastructure tied to its Colossus data center operations near Memphis.
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
According to the report, regulators “voted to approve the permit” of xAI subsidiary MZX Tech LLC to construct a power plant featuring 41 natural gas-burning turbines “after careful consideration of all public comments and community concerns.”
The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality stated that the permit followed a regulatory review process that included public comments and community input. Jaricus Whitlock, air division chief for the MDEQ, stated that the project met all applicable environmental standards.
“The proposed PSD permit in front of the board today not only meets all state and federal permitting regulations, but goes above and beyond what is required by law. MDEQ and the EPA agree that not a single person around our facilities will be exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution,” Whitlock stated.
The planned facility will help provide electricity for xAI’s AI computing infrastructure in the Memphis region.
The Southaven project forms part of xAI’s efforts to scale computing capacity for its artificial intelligence systems.
The company currently operates two major data centers in Memphis, known as Colossus 1 and Colossus 2, which provide computing power for xAI’s Grok AI models. xAI is also planning to build another large data center in Southaven called Macrohardrr, which would be located in a warehouse previously used by GXO Logistics.
Large-scale AI training requires substantial computing power and electricity, prompting technology companies to develop dedicated energy infrastructure for their data centers.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously stated that xAI plans to develop 1.2 gigawatts of power capacity for its Memphis-area AI supercomputer site as part of the federal government’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge. The commitment was announced during an event with United States President Donald Trump.
“As part of today’s commitment, we will take extensive additional steps to continue to reduce the costs of electricity for our neighbors. xAI will therefore commit to develop 1.2 GW of power as our supercomputer’s primary power source. That will be for every additional data center as well. We will expand what is already the largest global Megapack power installation in the world,” Shotwell said.
“The installation will provide enough backup power to power the city of Memphis, and more than sufficient energy to power the town of Southaven, Mississippi where the data center resides. We will build new substations and invest in electrical infrastructure to provide stability to the area’s grid.”
Elon Musk
Tesla China teases Optimus robot’s human-looking next-gen hands
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
A new teaser shared by Tesla’s China team appears to show a pair of unusually human-like hands for Optimus.
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
As could be seen in the teaser image, the new version of Optimus’ hands features proportions and finger structures that look strikingly similar to those of a human hand. Their appearance suggests that they might have dexterity approaching that of a human hand.
If the image reflects a new generation of Optimus’ hands, it could indicate Tesla is continuing to refine one of the most critical components of its humanoid robot.
Hands are widely viewed as one of the most difficult engineering challenges in robotics. For Optimus to perform complex real-world work, from manufacturing tasks to household activities, its hands would need to be the best in the industry.
Elon Musk has repeatedly described Optimus as Tesla’s most important long-term product. In posts on social media platform X, Musk has stated that Optimus could eventually become the first real-world Von Neumann machine.
In theory, a Von Neumann machine is a self-replicating system capable of building copies of itself using available materials. The concept was originally proposed by mathematician John von Neumann in the mid-20th century.
“Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
If Optimus is expected to carry out complex work autonomously in the future, high levels of dexterity will likely be essential. This makes the development of advanced robotic hands a key step towards Musk’s long-term expectations for the product.