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Tesla posts ‘first positive surprise of year’ as Morgan Stanley breaks down Q2
Tesla posted what Morgan Stanley called its “first positive surprise of the year” as it beat delivery expectations for Q2 by around 6,000 units.
On Tuesday, Tesla reported its quarterly deliveries at 443,956, beating what Wall Street expected with its consensus figures at 438,019.
Tesla reports Q2 delivery and production figures, beating estimates
The beat was a big step in the right direction for Tesla, which has struggled to post any positive news so far in 2024 in terms of the grand scale. The automaker has struggled with growth, an expected bottleneck in its trek for EV sector domination as it finds itself in between two growth periods.
However, the Q2 numbers were labeled the “first positive surprise of the year” by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who said there were a few things to be happy about.
Delivery Beat
Tesla beat delivery expectations, but there is still a long way to go before bulls can truly be pleased with what they see. Although they increased deliveries quarter-over-quarter, the Q2 figures are lower than what Tesla reported in Q2 last year.
In order to keep things flat in terms of the annual growth rate and report 0 percent instead of a loss, Tesla will need to grow deliveries in the second half of next year by roughly 6 percent.
Inventory Reduction
Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than it produced, which means its inventory is starting to thin out.
This is a good thing from a consumer perspective because, in theory, it means that Tesla cannot keep up with consumer interest. It basically means demand for its vehicles is healthy, and people are willing to buy an inventory vehicle.
Jonas writes:
“Tesla delivered 33k units more than it produced in 2Q, driving a 7-day reduction in days’ supply of inventory (on a full calendar day basis) in the quarter. The 2Q inventory reduction substantially (but not fully) offsets the incresae in inventory seen in 1Q. At an ATP of $45k/unit this, by itself, drives a $1.5bn working capital inflow during the quarter — higher than the $600mm tailwind we have expected. Our 2Q forecast for $0.9bn FCF burn looks incrementally more conservative following this print.”
Energy Storage Deployments
Perhaps the biggest piece of information from the delivery report had nothing to do with cars in the slightest.
Tesla reported that it deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, its biggest in history by a wide margin.
This was a 132 percent increase from Q1 2024, which was previously its largest deployment. Tesla rolled out 4.053 GWh of energy during this three-month span.
Tesla Energy posts record 9.4 GWh of battery storage deployed in Q2 2024
Jonas said the news was a “show stealer” and was nearly two-times what Morgan Stanley predicted for the calendar year.
The firm believes this could be something Tesla investors should pay attention to in the coming months:
“As Gen AI acceleration spurs a multigenerational increase in energy demand, electricity generation, and data center investment, we believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130bn) as the business uniquely positioned to benefit from investment in the U.S. electric grid accelerated by the AI boom.”
Tesla Mojo
Jonas said that two weeks ago, clients were preparing for a rejection in ratification of Musk’s 2018 pay package. Now, they’re asking about “positive catalysts for 2Q and beyond.”
Investors were also asked this interesting question:
“Is this the same Tesla from early June?”
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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 rolled out late last week to Early Access Program (EAP) members, but its best feature is not what you think.
While Tesla has done a great job of refining the performance of the Full Self-Driving suite with the latest update, there are some other interesting additions, including one that many owners have requested for some time.
Upon the release of v14.2, many owners recognized the Blue Dot next to the Autopilot tab in Vehicle Settings, notifying them of a new feature. What was included as a new feature in the new update was a Full Self-Driving stats feature, which now will show you how many miles you’ve traveled in total, and how many of those miles were driven using FSD:
🚨 The coolest non-driving change of Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 pic.twitter.com/HOJcFaV2Ny
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) November 21, 2025
The feature seems to be more of a bragging rights thing than anything, but it will also give drivers a good idea of how many miles they are using Full Self-Driving for. Those who use telematics-based insurance services will also be able to run experiments of their own, and could determine whether their premiums are impacted by the use of Full Self-Driving, and whether it is more advantageous to use over manual driving.
Tesla rolled out numerous other improvements with Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2, most notably, the company seems to have resolved previous complaints about brake stabbing and hesitation. This was a major complaint in v14.1, but Tesla has seemed to resolve it with this newest branch of the FSD suite.
There were also improvements in overall operation, and it was notably smoother than past versions. Speed Profiles are seemingly refined as well, as they seem much more fixed on how fast they will travel and how aggressive they will be with things like passing cars on freeways and lane changes.
In future updates, Tesla plans to add Parking Spot selection, along with overall operational improvements. However, CEO Elon Musk recently said that the next branch, Full Self-Driving v14.3, will be where the “final piece of the puzzle is placed.” Tesla believes it is close to solving autonomy, so v14.3 could be a major jump forward, but it remains to be seen.
Tesla has adjusted the functionality of a crucial climate feature as Winter weather has started to arrive throughout some parts of the United States. The new feature was highly requested by owners.
Tesla has a Cabin Overheat Protection feature that helps keep the temperature regulated if it reaches a certain threshold. Inversely, it can be used in cold weather as well, which will automatically warm the cabin if it sinks to a temperature that is too low for the owner’s comfort.
This is a great way to keep the cabin either warmed up just enough or cooled down just enough so that it never gets too hot or too cold. Extreme temperatures could damage certain parts of the vehicle or damage personal belongings that are kept inside the car.
Overheat protection is a great thing to have in hot climates like Arizona or Texas, especially with the Premium trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, which feature a glass roof.
Many owners appreciate the feature, but they argue that using it at home will utilize too much energy, especially during extreme temperatures. For a while, many Tesla fans have requested an option to disable this feature when the car is parked at home, which the company recently added, according to Not a Tesla App.
The feature is part of Software Version 2025.44.3, and the release notes state:
“You can now choose Exclude Home when Cabin Overheat Protection or No A/C is enabled.”
Tesla has been great at listening to what owners want with new features, and this is one that will reserve some charge and prevent unnecessary utilization of available power, especially as the car is parked at home. If owners want to condition the cabin or get the car ready for operation with a comfortable interior, they can utilize the Tesla app to adjust the climate.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed today on the social media platform X that legacy automakers, such as Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, do not want to license the company’s Full Self-Driving suite, at least not without a long list of their own terms.
“I’ve tried to warn them and even offered to license Tesla FSD, but they don’t want it! Crazy,” Musk said on X. “When legacy auto does occasionally reach out, they tepidly discuss implementing FSD for a tiny program in 5 years with unworkable requirements for Tesla, so pointless.”
I’ve tried to warn them and even offered to license Tesla FSD, but they don’t want it! Crazy …
When legacy auto does occasionally reach out, they tepidly discuss implementing FSD for a tiny program in 5 years with unworkable requirements for Tesla, so pointless. 🤷♂️
🦕 🦕
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 24, 2025
Musk made the remark in response to a note we wrote about earlier today from Melius Research, in which analyst Rob Wertheimer said, “Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is,” in terms of autonomy and self-driving development.
Wertheimer believes there are hundreds of billions of dollars in value headed toward Tesla’s way because of its prowess with FSD.
A few years ago, Musk first remarked that Tesla was in early talks with one legacy automaker regarding licensing Full Self-Driving for its vehicles. Tesla never confirmed which company it was, but given Musk’s ongoing talks with Ford CEO Jim Farley at the time, it seemed the Detroit-based automaker was the likely suspect.
Tesla’s Elon Musk reiterates FSD licensing offer for other automakers
Ford has been perhaps the most aggressive legacy automaker in terms of its EV efforts, but it recently scaled back its electric offensive due to profitability issues and weak demand. It simply was not making enough vehicles, nor selling the volume needed to turn a profit.
Musk truly believes that many of the companies that turn their backs on FSD now will suffer in the future, especially considering the increased chance it could be a parallel to what has happened with EV efforts for many of these companies.
Unfortunately, they got started too late and are now playing catch-up with Tesla, XPeng, BYD, and the other dominating forces in EVs across the globe.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2’s best new feature is not what you think
Tesla adjusts crucial feature as winter weather arrives
