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Tesla stock sentiment ‘overdone’ as 2.1m delivery target takes focus: Wedbush

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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has been subject to negative sentiments that are “overdone,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Ives also believes Tesla can achieve a base delivery goal of 2.1 million units this year, with a “stretch” estimation of 2.2 million cars being delivered. The final three quarters of the year will have to prove to be an entirely different story than Q1 because the company is “tracking softly towards the ~430k level,” Ives writes in his note.

The consensus surrounding Tesla stock in the early portion of the year stands as questionable in terms of demand, production, and the advancement of its product line. Some analysts have even called Tesla’s lineup stale, stagnant, and aging.

While demand seems to be slowing slightly, production has been affected by a factory shutdown in Germany due to unforeseen circumstances that are out of Tesla’s hands. In the United States, most of the company’s focus has been on the launch of the new Model 3 and the Cybertruck.

Tesla price target cut by Morgan Stanley

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The new Model 3 could help secure return customers who want the newest version of the company’s most affordable vehicle, and the Cybertruck production ramp is slowly picking up pace, but will likely not substantially contribute to the overall delivery figures of the first half of the year.

There are certainly some indicators that Tesla is due to have a slower year in 2024. The company stated that its growth rate could be slow due to the focus on the next-generation platform, which is set to hit the market in the latter half of 2025.

Additionally, the projected start of 2024 has been slower than what most would have anticipated, which puts a lot of eyes on Q1 delivery and production numbers.

However, Ives feels these negative thoughts are overblown and out of context:

“We believe the stock is way overshooting on the negative front as the demand story for Tesla is more in stabilization mode heading to the rest of 2024, price cuts are moderating, battery costs/production is showing strong cost efficiencies, and a Model 2 (sub $30k vehicle) is on the roadmap for the next year. In the near-term, it’s not roses and rainbows with demand sluggish for 1Q, the Berlin arson shutdown, and noise around the Musk comp package. That said, we believe the risk/reward is extremely compelling at these levels with the AI story and FSD making major strides at Tesla, and, in our opinion, represents a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion as this next chapter of the Tesla growth story plays out in the field.”

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While Ives notes the negative sentiment is “overdone,” he does acknowledge the headwinds the company will face this year due to the various factors that are going to present challenges for Tesla.

Ives also writes that the Tesla Board had three non-negotiables to stop the bleeding for the stock:

1. Create a new comp package that supersedes this 2018 one along with a new package post proxy that will be voted at the next shareholder meeting in May

2. Devise a new comp package that would get Musk directly to the 25% voting share bogey he has discussed over the past month and voted on at the next shareholder meeting

3. We believe Tesla moving to Texas would clear the way for the Board to go down the path to get Musk towards the 25% voting rights and do a comp package that supersedes the 2018 plan; making the Delaware ruling noise.

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Ives and Wedbush maintained the Outperform rating on the stock and the $315 price target.

Disclosure: Joey Klender owns Tesla stock.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at . You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at .

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

Investor's Corner

Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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Investor's Corner

Two Tesla bulls share differing insights on Elon Musk, the Board, and politics

Two noted Tesla bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

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Credit: Tesla

Two noted Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls have shared differing views on the recent activities of CEO Elon Musk and the company’s leadership.

While Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called on Tesla’s board to take concrete steps to ensure Musk remains focused on the EV maker, longtime Tesla supporter Cathie Wood of Ark Invest reaffirmed her confidence in the CEO and the company’s leadership.

Ives warns of distraction risk amid crucial growth phase

In a recent note, Ives stated that Tesla is at a critical point in its history, as the company is transitioning from an EV maker towards an entity that is more focused on autonomous driving and robotics. He then noted that the Board of Directors should “act now” and establish formal boundaries around Musk’s political activities, which could be a headwind on TSLA stock. 

Ives laid out a three-point plan that he believes could ensure that the electric vehicle maker is led with proper leadership until the end of the decade. First off, the analyst noted that a new “incentive-driven pay package for Musk as CEO that increases his ownership of Tesla up to ~25% voting power” is necessary. He also stated that the Board should establish clear guidelines for how much time Musk must devote to Tesla operations in order to receive his compensation, and a dedicated oversight committee must be formed to monitor the CEO’s political activities.

Ives, however, highlighted that Tesla should move forward with Musk at its helm. “We urge the Board to act now and move the Tesla story forward with Musk as CEO,” he wrote, reiterating its Outperform rating on Tesla stock and $500 per share price target.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to Ives’ suggestions with a brief comment on X. “Shut up, Dan,” Musk wrote.

Cathie Wood reiterates trust in Musk and Tesla board

Meanwhile, Ark Investment Management founder Cathie Wood expressed little concern over Musk’s latest controversies. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Wood said, “We do trust the board and the board’s instincts here and we stay out of politics.” She also noted that Ark has navigated Musk-related headlines since it first invested in Tesla.

Wood also pointed to Musk’s recent move to oversee Tesla’s sales operations in the U.S. and Europe as evidence of his renewed focus in the electric vehicle maker. “When he puts his mind on something, he usually gets the job done,” she said. “So I think he’s much less distracted now than he was, let’s say, in the White House 24/7,” she said.

TSLA stock is down roughly 25% year-to-date but has gained about 19% over the past 12 months, as noted in a StocksTwits report.

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Investor's Corner

Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Tesla (TSLA) ‘Overweight’ rating amid Q2 2025 deliveries

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla China

Cantor Fitzgerald is holding firm on its bullish stance for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), reiterating its “Overweight” rating and $355 price target amidst the company’s release of its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. 

Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2 2025, falling below last year’s Q2 figure of 443,956 units. Despite softer demand in some countries in Europe and ongoing controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk, the firm maintained its view that Tesla is a long-term growth story in the EV sector.

Tesla’s Q2 results

Among the 384,122 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the second quarter, 373,728 were Model 3 and Model Y. The remaining 10,394 units were attributed to the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. Production was largely flat year-over-year at 410,244 units.

In the energy division, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of energy storage in Q2, which was above last year’s 9.4 GWh. Overall, Tesla continues to hold a strong position with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 17.7% gross margin, as noted in a report from Investing.com.

Tesla’s stock is still volatile

Tesla’s market cap fell to $941 billion on Monday amid volatility that was likely caused in no small part by CEO Elon Musk’s political posts on X over the weekend. Musk has announced that he is forming the America Party to serve as a third option for voters in the United States, a decision that has earned the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump. 

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Despite Musk’s controversial nature, some analysts remain bullish on TSLA stock. Apart from Cantor Fitzgerald, Canaccord Genuity also reiterated its “Buy” rating on Tesla shares, with the firm highlighting the company’s positive Q2 vehicle deliveries, which exceeded its expectations by 24,000 units. Cannacord also noted that Tesla remains strong in several markets despite its year-over-year decline in deliveries.

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