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Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2023 vehicle delivery results: analyst consensus

Credit: Tesla Asia/Twitter

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to release its Q2 2023 vehicle delivery and production report this weekend. With this in mind, the Street has posted its estimates for the EV maker’s results, and they are quite optimistic. 

Amidst Tesla’s continued ramp in Gigafactory Texas, Berlin, and Shanghai, Wall Street is currently looking for deliveries of about 445,000 vehicles, as per analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. Estimates compiled by Bloomberg suggest that Tesla will be delivering around 448,000 vehicles in the second quarter. 

Similar to previous quarters, Tesla has also shared its own company-compiled consensus, which includes 27 analysts that are covering the electric vehicle maker. These analysts represent the following firms: 

Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, Bank of America, Canaccord, Citibank, Cowen, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, Exane BNP, Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim, Jefferies, JP Morgan, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, New Street Research, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler, RBC, Truist, Tudor, UBS, Wedbush, Wells Fargo, and Wolfe.

The delivery consensus of sell-side analysts as compiled by the EV maker suggests that Tesla would be delivering 446,823 vehicles in the second quarter, comprised of 15,800 Model S and Model X and 430,123 Model 3 and Model Y. At this pace, Tesla may be able to deliver a total of 1,832,049 vehicles in 2023. 

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The analyst consensus for Tesla’s Q2 2023 results are quite high, though it is feasible considering the demand for the company’s vehicles following a series of price adjustments in key markets like the United States and China. With these price adjustments in place, demand for the company’s best-selling vehicles like the Model Y and Model 3 likely saw some momentum. 

That being said, Tesla investors that have long followed the company would probably be wise to expect some volatility once the EV maker releases its Q2 2023 delivery report. Tesla skeptics, after all, tend to post inflated estimates prior to the release of the company’s quarterly results as a way to increase the chances of the EV maker “missing” their expectations. Such skeptics typically get featured in media outlets as well, highlighting the narrative that Tesla’s quarterly results are “disappointing.” 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Earnings Call: Top 5 questions investors are asking

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.

The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.

Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.

There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:

SpaceX IPO is coming, CEO Elon Musk confirms

  1. You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
    1. Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
  2. When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
    1. Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
  3. What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
    1. Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
  4. Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
    1. Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
  5. Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
    1. Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.

Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency

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(Credit: Tesla North America | X)

Elon Musk shared an incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab’s potential efficiency, as the company has hinted in the past that it could be one of the most affordable vehicles to operate from a per-mile basis.

ARK Invest released a report recently that shed some light on the potential incremental cost per mile of various Robotaxis that will be available on the market in the coming years.

The Cybercab, which is detailed for the year 2030, has an exceptionally low cost of operation, which is something Tesla revealed when it unveiled the vehicle a year and a half ago at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.

Musk said on numerous occasions that Tesla plans to hit the $0.20 cents per mile mark with the Cybercab, describing a “clear path” to achieving that figure and emphasizing it is the “full considered” cost, which would include energy, maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, and insurance.

ARK’s report showed that the Cybercab would be roughly half the cost of the Waymo 6th Gen Robotaxi in 2030, as that would come in at around $0.40 per mile all in. Cybercab, at scale, would be at $0.20.

Credit: ARK Invest

This would be a dramatic decrease in the cost of operation for Tesla, and the savings would then be passed on to customers who choose to utilize the ride-sharing service for their own transportation needs.

The U.S. average cost of new vehicle ownership is about $0.77 per mile, according to AAA. Meanwhile, Uber and Lyft rideshares often cost between $1 and $4 per mile, while Waymo can cost between $0.60 and $1 or more per mile, according to some estimates.

Tesla’s engineering has been the true driver of these cost efficiencies, and its focus on creating a vehicle that is as cost-effective to operate as possible is truly going to pay off as the vehicle begins to scale. Tesla wants to get the Cybercab to about 5.5-6 miles per kWh, which has been discussed with prototypes.

Additionally, fewer parts due to the umboxed manufacturing process, a lower initial cost, and eliminating the need to pay humans for their labor would also contribute to a cheaper operational cost overall. While aspirational, all of the ingredients for this to be a real goal are there.

It may take some time as Tesla needs to hammer the manufacturing processes, and Musk has said there will be growing pains early. This week, he said regarding the early production efforts:

“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk to attend 2026 World Economic Forum at Davos

The Tesla CEO was confirmed as a last-minute speaker for a session with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

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Elon Musk planned to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos for the first time, marking a notable shift after years of public criticism of the annual gathering. The Tesla CEO was confirmed as a last-minute speaker for a session alongside BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, signaling a thaw in Musk’s long-strained relationship with the global economic forum. Musk was confirmed as a late addition to Davos program Organizers of the World Economic Forum confirmed that Elon Musk was added shortly before the event to a Thursday afternoon session in Davos, where he was scheduled to speak with Larry Fink. The appearance marked Musk’s first participation in the forum, which annually draws political leaders, business executives, and global media to Switzerland. Musk’s attendance represented a departure from his past stance toward the event. He had been invited in prior years but declined to attend, including in 2024. His Davos appearance followed remarks from his political ally, Donald Trump, who addressed the forum earlier in the week with a wide-ranging speech. The session also underscored Musk’s expanding role beyond Tesla, reflecting his leadership across multiple ventures, including SpaceX and xAI. A previously strained relationship showed signs of easing Musk had frequently criticized the World Economic Forum in the past, describing it as elitist and questioning its influence. In earlier posts, he characterized the gathering as “boring” and accused it of functioning like an unelected global authority. Those remarks contributed to a long-running distance between Musk and WEF organizers. The forum previously said Musk had not been invited since 2015, though that position shifted as his global influence grew. Organizers indicated last year that Musk was welcome amid heightened interest in his political and business activities, including his involvement in efforts to improve government efficiency during Trump’s administration. Musk later stepped away from that role. Despite the past friction, Musk remained central to several global debates, ranging from SpaceX’s provision of satellite internet services in geopolitically sensitive regions to controversy surrounding content generated by xAI’s Grok chatbot. His decision to attend Davos suggested a pragmatic recalibration, even as his relationship with the forum remained complex.

Elon Musk is poised to attend the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos. The Tesla CEO was confirmed as a last-minute speaker for a session with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, signaling a thaw in Musk’s long-strained relationship with the event.

A late addition

Organizers of the World Economic Forum confirmed that Elon Musk was added shortly before the event to a Thursday afternoon session, where he was scheduled to speak with Fink, as noted in a Bloomberg News report. Musk’s upcoming appearance marks Musk’s first participation in the forum, which annually draws political leaders, business executives, and global media to Davos, Switzerland.

Musk’s attendance represents a departure from his past stance toward the event. He had been invited in prior years but declined to attend, including in 2024. His upcoming appearance followed remarks from his political ally, Donald Trump, who addressed the forum earlier in the week with a wide-ranging speech.

A previously strained relationship

Musk had frequently criticized the World Economic Forum in the past, describing it as elitist and questioning its influence. In earlier posts, he characterized the gathering as “boring” and accused it of functioning like an unelected global authority. Those remarks contributed to a long-running distance between Musk and WEF organizers.

The forum previously said Musk had not been invited since 2015, though that position has since shifted. Organizers indicated last year that Musk was welcome amid heightened interest in his political and business activities, including his involvement in the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk later stepped away from that role.

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Despite his friction with the World Economic Forum, Musk has remained central to several global events, from SpaceX’s provision of satellite internet services in geopolitically sensitive regions through Starlink to the growing use of xAI’s Grok in U.S. government applications.

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