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Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2023 earnings: What the Street expects

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to release its second-quarter earnings results later today. With another record quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries under its belt and a series of positive updates from the company such as charging deals with several automakers and charging providers, expectations are high that Q2 results will be quite encouraging. 

Tesla stock has surged 58% in the past three months. This added over $100 in TSLA stock price for shareholders, and it also helped the electric vehicle maker achieve a market cap of $929 billion as of Tuesday’s close. With just hours before its second-quarter earnings call, Tesla seems to be within striking distance of a trillion-dollar market cap once more. 

Overall, Wall Street is expecting Tesla to report top-line revenue of $24.56 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.82, as noted in a report from Yahoo Finance. Such a revenue figure represents a slight gain from the first quarter but a more substantial 45% gain year-over-year. Tesla is also expected to post adjusted net income of $2.89 billion, which is slightly less than Q1 but almost $300 million more than Q2 2022. 

Tesla announced earlier this month that its global production for the second quarter reached an impressive 479,700 units, with deliveries totaling 466,140. These delivery numbers exceeded both Wall Street’s estimated figure of 448,599 units and the previous quarter’s total of 422,875. Interestingly enough, both production and delivery volumes set all-time records for Tesla during the second quarter.

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Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated in a note on Monday that Tesla’s auto gross margin for the second quarter will likely be less than the first quarter. For context, Tesla disclosed an auto gross margin of 19% and a GAAP gross margin of 19.3% in Q1 2023, marking a decline from the 24% reported in Q4. “We believe the line in the sand is Auto GM (ex credits) of ~17.5% with [Q2] being the trough quarter for Tesla GM that should ramp back over the coming quarters and back towards the 20% level heading into 2024,” Ives wrote. 

Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois expressed alignment with the consensus that Q2 would represent a low point for Tesla’s auto gross margin. The analyst noted that the Jefferies team observed a shift in valuation drivers, particularly with regards to Tesla’s leadership in AI-based self-driving software. Houchois also noted that the introduction of updated products like the Model 3’s Project Highland update and Tesla’s limited market share in the mid-size car segment indicates that there is still potential for growth despite price reductions.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.

Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.

Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.

Fiorani said:

“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”

Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.

Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:

It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.

The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.

Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.

The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.

In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.

This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.

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One of Tesla’s biggest threats just got banned in the U.S.

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In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.

The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.

Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.

Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.

The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.

While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.

Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.

Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:

Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns

The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.

By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.

For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.

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Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new Trump autonomy rules

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla Cybercab stands to gain from new rules that the Trump Administration is aiming to enforce on autonomous vehicles. On Thursday, NHTSA, under the Trump Administration’s U.S. Department of Transportation, commenced rulemaking on the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).

This effort aims to eliminate the mandate for manual brake pedals in vehicles that are designed to be driven exclusively by automated driving systems. This would impact the Tesla Cybercab, which the company has stated would operate without a steering wheel or pedals.

Tesla Cybercab launch is imminent after latest sighting at Giga Texas

The Trump Administration is looking to revise FMVSS No. 135, which requires standard braking systems on light-duty vehicles.

Currently, the regulation requires light-duty cars to use traditional manual braking systems that allow operators to slow the vehicle. With the advent of self-driving in the U.S., these regulations need updating, and these are the changes that could come to FMVSS No. 135:

  • Removes requirements for hand- or foot-operated brake controls for vehicles designed never to be operated by a human. Existing rules still apply to AVs that retain manual controls.
  • All subject vehicles must still meet the same stopping distance performance criteria via alternative testing procedures.
  • While this update ensures AVs can physically stop when commanded, NHTSA is separately developing safety performance requirements for AVs in real-world driving scenarios.
  • NHTSA will continue to use its broad defect enforcement authority to investigate unsafe ADS behavior and oversee recalls.

As autonomy becomes a greater part of passenger travel, these types of rule adjustments will be more than reasonable. It will give manufacturers the ability to self-certify their vehicles and avoid any red tape that could ultimately delay the deployment of these vehicles.

Administrators are also incredibly excited about the opportunity to play a role in the advancement of self-driving vehicles.

“We are at the cusp of the greatest technological revolution in vehicle technology since the innovation of the Model T,” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said. “If we want America to lead the way, we have to reimagine our regulatory framework. That’s why under Secretary Sean Duffy’s AV Framework, NHTSA is tearing down pointless barriers to innovative designs while strengthening the fundamental safety requirements that matter and holding AV developers accountable for safe performance.”

The Cybercab entered mass production at Gigafactory Texas in April. Tesla ultimately plans to push the vehicle into its Robotaxi fleet, potentially when frameworks like these are established.

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