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Tesla’s (TSLA) Q3 2019 earnings: What Wall Street is expecting

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into what could be its most important earnings results yet, with the company riding a momentum that has built up since the dip that resulted from the results of its Q3 vehicle production and delivery reports. With Q3 2019’s earnings call just around the corner, here are Wall Street’s current expectations for the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker. 

Earnings

Thirty-three analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $0.46 a share for the third quarter of 2019. This contrasts with an adjusted profit of $2.90 per share that Tesla exhibited in Q3 2018, a period that surprised critics with its GAAP and adjusted per-share profits. 

On the other hand, Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that aggregates estimates from Wall Street analysts, buy-side analysts, company executives, academics, fund managers, and the like, expects Tesla to show an adjusted loss of $0.29 per share. 

Revenue

FactSet analysts expect the electric car maker to report sales of $6.45 billion, down from $6.82 billion from Q3 2018. This is partly due to the majority of the company’s deliveries now being focused on the much more affordable Model 3 sedan, which is shipping in higher volumes compared to the flagship Model S and X. Compared to the flagship sedan and SUV, the Model 3 is yet to prove that it can be a fully profitable vehicle for Tesla. Q3 2019 could thus be a pivotal point for the all-electric sedan. 

Estimize, on the other hand, expects Tesla to show a revenue of $6.60 billion. 

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The stock so far

Tesla shares have experienced a steep fall in 2019, losing around 22% of its value and down less than 1% in the past 12 months. This compares unfavorably to the S&P 500, which has gains of 20% and 16%, respectively; as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has shown an advance of 9% and 7% for the 12-month period. 

Analysts polled by FactSet have an average price target of $269.67 for TSLA stock. That’s an upside of about 4% from the electric car maker’s current levels. 

Analysts’ Take

David Whiston, an analyst with Morningstar, is optimistic about the electric car maker’s chances for Q3 2019. Despite the declining numbers for the lower-volume but profitable Model S and X, Whiston believes that he remains “cautiously optimistic” about the electric car maker. 

“With Tesla young and trying to scale up, I’m always interested in their free cash flow or burn for a quarter. That’s the most important thing to me because it’s a measure of health and ultimately of its ability to service its debt. The shift to the Model 3 while Model S and Model X sales are declining, plus increased costs with a raft of planned new vehicles and investments in driverless-car technologies “always create the question of: ‘Is volume sufficient enough to make up for reinvesting in the business?’ Tesla is a long-term story, and one quarter is unlikely to make or break the company,” he said.

Bill Selesky, an analyst with Argus Research, is also convinced that demand for Tesla’s vehicles remain robust despite the stock’s headwinds this year. “Tesla still enjoys strong demand for its vehicles, especially for the Model 3, and from people who did not put down deposits. That’s a good sign for me, telling me that things continue to get better on the demand side. They just need to get production issues corrected and focus on cost controls,” he said.

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Tesla will be posting its financial results for Q3 2019 after the market closes on Wednesday, October 23, 2019. The company would be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its Q3 2019 Update Letter, which will be accessible from Tesla’s Investor Relations website. A live Q&A session is set for 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial results and outlook.

As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +0.55% at $254.90 per share. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a weird price target boost from a notable bear just a day after it announced its strongest quarter in terms of vehicle deliveries and energy deployments.

JPMorgan raised its price target on Tesla shares from $115 to $150. It maintained its ‘Underweight’ rating on the stock.

Despite Tesla reporting 497,099 deliveries, about 12 percent above the 443,000 anticipated from the consensus, JPMorgan is still skeptical that the company can keep up its momentum, stating most of its Q3 strength came from leaning on the removal of the $7,500 EV tax credit, which expired on September 30.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

The firm said Tesla benefited from a “temporary stronger-than-expected industry-wide pull-forward” as the tax credit expired. It is no secret that consumers flocked to the company this past quarter to take advantage of the credit.

The bump will need to be solidified as the start of a continuing trend of strong vehicle deliveries, the firm said in a note to investors. Analysts said that one quarter of strength was “too soon to declare Tesla as having sustainably returned to growth in its core business.”

JPMorgan does not anticipate Tesla having strong showings with vehicle deliveries after Q4.

There are two distinct things that stick out with this note: the first is the lack of recognition of other parts of Tesla’s business, and the confusion that surrounds future quarters.

JPMorgan did not identify Tesla’s strength in autonomy, energy storage, or robotics, with autonomy and robotics being the main focuses of the company’s future. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi efforts are incredibly relevant and drive more impact moving forward than vehicle deliveries.

Additionally, the confusion surrounding future delivery numbers in quarters past Q3 is evident.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Tesla will receive some assistance from deliveries of vehicles that will reach customers in Q4, but will still qualify for the credit under the IRS’s revised rules. It will also likely introduce an affordable model this quarter, which should have a drastic impact on deliveries depending on pricing.

Tesla shares are trading at $422.40 at 2:35 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q3 deliveries expected to exceed 440k as Benchmark holds $475 target

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

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(Credit: Tesla)

Benchmark has reiterated its “Buy” rating and $475 price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) as the company prepares to report its third-quarter vehicle deliveries in the coming days. 

Tesla stock ended the third quarter at $444.72 per share, giving the EV maker a market cap of $1.479 trillion at the end of Q3 2025. 

Benchmark’s estimates

Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg noted that he expects Tesla’s deliveries to hit around 442,000 vehicles this Q3, which is under the 448,000-unit consensus but still well above the 384,000 vehicles that the company reported in Q2 2025. According to the analyst, some optimistic estimates for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries are as high as mid-460,000s.

“Tesla is expected to report 3Q25 global production and deliveries on Thursday. We model 442,000 deliveries versus ~448,000 for FactSet consensus with some high-side calls in the mid-460,000s. A solid sequential uptick off 2Q25’s ~384,000, a measured setup into year-end given a choppy incentive/pricing backdrop,” the analyst wrote.

Benchmark is not the only firm that holds an optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Q3 results. Deutsche Bank raised its own delivery forecast to 461,500, while Piper Sandler lifted its price target to $500 following a visit to China to assess market conditions. Cantor Fitzgerald also reiterated an “Overweight” rating and $355 price target for TSLA stock.

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Stock momentum meets competitive headwinds

Tesla’s anticipated Q3 results are boosted in part by the impending expiration of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, which analysts believe has encouraged buyers to finalize vehicle purchases sooner, as noted in an Investing.com report.

Tesla shares have surged nearly 30% in September, raising expectations for a strong delivery report. Benchmark warned, however, that some volatility may emerge in the coming quarter.

“With the stock up sharply into the print (roughly ~28-32% in September), its positioning raises the bar for an upside surprise to translate into further near-term strength; we also see risk of volatility if regional mix or ASPs underwhelm. We continue to anticipate policy-driven choppiness after 3Q as certain EV incentives/credits tighten or roll off in select markets, potentially creating 4Q demand air pockets and order-book lumpiness,” the analyst wrote.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk slams ING Deutschland for denying TSLA shareholders ability to vote

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has slammed ING Deutschland after the bank confirmed that it was not offering a way for clients to vote in the upcoming 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholders Meeting.

Musk posted his criticism of the firm in a post on social media platform X. 

Musk’s criticism

Musk’s criticism of ING Deutschland came as a response to the bank’s comment to a Tesla shareholder. The shareholder, Maximilian Auer, noted that he has not received a response from the German bank’s customer support on how he could vote with his TSLA shares. In response to the Auer’s comment, ING Deutschland confirmed that it does not offer such a service.

“We do not offer the proxy voting process or the transmission of a control number. There is no legal obligation to do so for general meetings under foreign law,” ING Deutschland wrote in its post.

The firm’s reply received a lot of criticism from users on X, with many stating that such comments could drive clients away. Elon Musk later weighed in with some strong words of his own, stating that the bank is effectively denying shareholders the ability to vote. “Denying shareholders the ability to vote, as you are doing, certainly should be a crime,” Musk wrote in a post on X.

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Tesla’s annual meeting

Tesla’s upcoming annual meeting this year is particularly important as shareholders are voting on the approval of Elon Musk’s new CEO performance award. The pay package, which could pave the way for Musk to become a trillionaire, is also designed to increase his stake in the electric vehicle maker to 25%. This, Musk stated, should prevent activist shareholder advisory firms to disrupt the company.

Tesla highlighted the importance of this year’s annual meeting in a post on X. 

“We pay for outstanding performance – not for promises. In 2018, shareholders approved a groundbreaking CEO Performance Award that delivered extraordinary value. At our Annual Meeting on November 6, Tesla shareholders can vote on a pay-for-performance plan designed to drive our next era of transformational growth and value creation. Seven years ago, Elon Musk had to deliver billions to shareholders – now it’s trillions.

“This plan creates a path for Elon to secure voting rights and will retain him as a leader of the company for many years to come. But as explained below, Elon only receives voting rights after he has delivered economic value to you. Your vote matters. Vote ‘FOR’ Proposal 4!” Tesla wrote in its post on X. 

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