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Tesla’s (TSLA) Q3 2019 earnings: What Wall Street is expecting

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is heading into what could be its most important earnings results yet, with the company riding a momentum that has built up since the dip that resulted from the results of its Q3 vehicle production and delivery reports. With Q3 2019’s earnings call just around the corner, here are Wall Street’s current expectations for the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker. 

Earnings

Thirty-three analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of $0.46 a share for the third quarter of 2019. This contrasts with an adjusted profit of $2.90 per share that Tesla exhibited in Q3 2018, a period that surprised critics with its GAAP and adjusted per-share profits. 

On the other hand, Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that aggregates estimates from Wall Street analysts, buy-side analysts, company executives, academics, fund managers, and the like, expects Tesla to show an adjusted loss of $0.29 per share. 

Revenue

FactSet analysts expect the electric car maker to report sales of $6.45 billion, down from $6.82 billion from Q3 2018. This is partly due to the majority of the company’s deliveries now being focused on the much more affordable Model 3 sedan, which is shipping in higher volumes compared to the flagship Model S and X. Compared to the flagship sedan and SUV, the Model 3 is yet to prove that it can be a fully profitable vehicle for Tesla. Q3 2019 could thus be a pivotal point for the all-electric sedan. 

Estimize, on the other hand, expects Tesla to show a revenue of $6.60 billion. 

The stock so far

Tesla shares have experienced a steep fall in 2019, losing around 22% of its value and down less than 1% in the past 12 months. This compares unfavorably to the S&P 500, which has gains of 20% and 16%, respectively; as well as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has shown an advance of 9% and 7% for the 12-month period. 

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Analysts polled by FactSet have an average price target of $269.67 for TSLA stock. That’s an upside of about 4% from the electric car maker’s current levels. 

Analysts’ Take

David Whiston, an analyst with Morningstar, is optimistic about the electric car maker’s chances for Q3 2019. Despite the declining numbers for the lower-volume but profitable Model S and X, Whiston believes that he remains “cautiously optimistic” about the electric car maker. 

“With Tesla young and trying to scale up, I’m always interested in their free cash flow or burn for a quarter. That’s the most important thing to me because it’s a measure of health and ultimately of its ability to service its debt. The shift to the Model 3 while Model S and Model X sales are declining, plus increased costs with a raft of planned new vehicles and investments in driverless-car technologies “always create the question of: ‘Is volume sufficient enough to make up for reinvesting in the business?’ Tesla is a long-term story, and one quarter is unlikely to make or break the company,” he said.

Bill Selesky, an analyst with Argus Research, is also convinced that demand for Tesla’s vehicles remain robust despite the stock’s headwinds this year. “Tesla still enjoys strong demand for its vehicles, especially for the Model 3, and from people who did not put down deposits. That’s a good sign for me, telling me that things continue to get better on the demand side. They just need to get production issues corrected and focus on cost controls,” he said.

Tesla will be posting its financial results for Q3 2019 after the market closes on Wednesday, October 23, 2019. The company would be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its Q3 2019 Update Letter, which will be accessible from Tesla’s Investor Relations website. A live Q&A session is set for 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial results and outlook.

As of writing, TSLA stock is trading +0.55% at $254.90 per share. 

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Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX turned a heralding moment for Starship into its greatest moment

Starship reached orbit despite losing an engine, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Flight 14.

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SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on Monday, and for a few nail-biting minutes it looked like it wouldn’t. During ascent on Flight 14, one of Ship 41’s six Raptor engines shut down early, and SpaceX’s livestream host Dan Huot told viewers the team had decided not to commit to orbit. Minutes later, after what Huot described as a lot of conversation in the control room, the final poll came back in favor, and a roughly 19 second burn of a single Raptor pushed the ship into orbit about 170 miles up.

The reversal matters because SpaceX had written the exit ramp into the mission plan. The company said it would only fire the orbital insertion burn if flight controllers confirmed enough backup hardware remained for the deorbit burn, a condition Teslarati laid out ahead of the flight. Losing an engine was exactly the scenario that rule was built for.

Pressing forward fits Elon Musk’s history. Falcon 1 failed three straight times before its fourth launch reached orbit in 2008, with SpaceX nearly out of money, and Starship was developed by flying prototypes until they broke. What changed this year SpaceX going public, and with $SPCX sliding below its IPO price in July when Flight 13 slipped, the short interest climbed significantly, as Teslarati reported at the time. A Starship potentially lost today with revenue generating next-gen Starlink satellites aboard would have landed directly on shareholders.

That pressure showed up after orbit. SpaceX cut a flight planned to last nearly 10 hours to about three, moving splashdown from west of Chile to the North Pacific near Hawaii. SpaceX gave no reason, though Musk said this month the company was being extremely cautious about debris risk. The single Raptor for deorbit worked, and Ship 41 completed its flip and landing burn before breaking apart in the water, an outcome SpaceX expected. Musk has structured SpaceX’s governance to shield long term bets from market pressure.

The payload is the bigger business story. Musk posted that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and are “operating nominally.” Each V3 is rated for about 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink, so this single launch adds roughly 26 Tbps, about 10 times what a Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini satellites adds. The V3 is too large for Falcon 9, making Starship the only vehicle that can build out the planned 100,000 satellite constellation, at up to 60 per flight once it reaches routine service. Unlike the 20 V3 units on Flight 13, which reentered on a suborbital path, these will raise their orbits and could begin serving customers within weeks and bring in hundreds of millions of additional dollars in projected Starlink revenue.

SpaceX has already begun winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship. Reported targets put Flight 15 as early as October 19, leaving about three weeks to diagnose Monday’s engine shutdown before the next orbital attempt.

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Elon Musk

SpaceX just got the green light Starship has waited years for

The FAA has cleared Starship Flight 14, setting up SpaceX’s first orbital attempt on Monday.

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SpaceX has cleared the last regulatory hurdle standing between Starship and its first trip to orbit. The Federal Aviation Administration issued the launch license for Starship Flight 14 late Saturday, keeping the mission on track for liftoff Monday, September 28, from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas.

The 75 minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central, and Boca Chica Beach closures are also scheduled for September 29 and 30 as backup dates. This will be Starship’s first revenue generating mission.

The license was the missing piece after SpaceX completed a full wet dress rehearsal with Booster 21 and Ship 41 on September 24. At the time, the company said the flight remained on track pending regulatory approval. Because Flight 14 flies an orbital profile, the FAA had to sign off on a modified license that met its safety, payload and financial responsibility requirements.

Observers combing through the new FAA paperwork also noticed that lightning no longer appears among Starship’s listed launch hazards. If that holds, it matters more for where Starship is headed than for Monday’s attempt. Florida and Louisiana, home to LC-39A and the planned Starbase Louisiana site, see some of the most frequent lightning in the United States.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Flight 14 is the mission SpaceX has been building toward for months. Ship 41 will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational V3 units to be deployed, and attempt roughly six orbits at about 275 kilometers over a flight lasting just under 10 hours. SpaceX says the ship will only perform its orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm enough hardware redundancy remains for the deorbit burn at the end of the mission. Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific west of Chile, while Super Heavy will return to the Gulf of Mexico.

The date carries some symbolism as well. A Monday launch would come 10 years and one day after Elon Musk first presented the Interplanetary Transport System, the design that became Starship, at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico.

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SpaceX has not announced what comes next, but air traffic planning slides reported this week, list Flight 15 no earlier than October 19 and a first Starship launch from LC-39A in Florida no earlier than October 30. Both dates depend on how Monday goes.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Optimus Gen 3 shows off a cleaner, factory-ready design in new app discovery

Renders hidden inside Tesla’s Android app show Optimus Gen 3’s design before any official reveal.

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Tesla Optimus Gen 3 [Credit: Tesla]

Tesla may have accidentally given a first look at its newest Optimus Gen 3 humanoid robot when photos were found in the Tesla smartphone app.

Design files tucked inside a recent Android version of the Tesla app appear to show the third generation humanoid robot next to the older Gen 2.5 prototype. The assets were extracted from the app package by Tesla community member @wholemars, who posted the renders on X late Tuesday night before deleting them. The Tesla Newswire reshared the side by side comparison on Wednesday, and the images have circulated widely since.

Tesla Optimus Gen 2.5 vs Gen 3 comparison via @WholeMars on X

Tesla Optimus Gen 2.5 vs Gen 3 comparison via @WholeMars on X

The files are labeled “gen3” and were built as models for Tesla app’s own interface, as validated directly by Grok to be official.

The comparison shows a robot that looks built for a factory line rather than a lab bench. Gen 2.5’s exposed mechanical linkages and gold plating on the knees and shins are gone. In their place, Gen 3 uses matte black fairings on the lower legs, paired with a more contoured champagne gold body. Flexible covers now seal the joint where the torso meets the upper thighs, keeping bearings and moving parts sealed from debris and unnecessary contact.

The body panels fit more tightly, and the hands, which Tesla has said carry 22 degrees of freedom, look far more refined than those on earlier units.

This most recent leak fills a gap Tesla has left open for most of the year. Elon Musk said on March 31 that Optimus 3 was walking around but needed “some finishing touches” before it could be shown, a delay Teslarati covered when Tesla missed its first quarter reveal target. Musk later said Tesla would hold the design back until closer to production, partly to keep competitors from copying it. No reveal date has been announced.

The app itself has been preparing for Optimus for months. In July, code in the Tesla app pointed to a dedicated robot phone key, a consent screen for collecting video and spatial data while Optimus works inside a home, and an alert system for low battery and mechanical faults. Finished 3D models of Gen 3 suggest the interface owners will eventually use is moving past placeholder code toward something Tesla intends to ship.

Manufacturing is moving in parallel. Tesla tore out the original Model S and Model X lines at Fremont this summer to make room for Optimus production, with a planned capacity of one million robots a year. At Giga Texas, the steel frame of a dedicated Optimus factory is nearing completion ahead of a targeted 2027 start, with Musk pointing to an eventual output of 10 million units annually.

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