Investor's Corner
LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2019 earnings call updates
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third-quarter earnings call comes on the heels of a blockbuster earnings report that saw the electric car maker prove its critics wrong by posting a surprise profit and showing earnings per share of $1.91, far beyond Wall St’s expec. By beating Wall Street’s estimates, Tesla appears to be on the cusp of changing the narrative surrounding the company’s immediate future once more.
As revealed in the company’s Q3 2019 Update Letter, Tesla is GAAP profitable once more. The company is also seeing free cash flow, something that was largely unexpected during the days leading up to the earnings report.
For today’s earnings call, Tesla’s executives are expected to address questions surrounding the company’s plans for the immediate and CEO Elon Musk’s apparent ability to now underpromise and overdeliver. Tesla stock is currently trading +20.30% at $306.38 in after-hours trading. The earnings call will likely affect these results further, for better or for worse.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2019 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.
16:35 PT – And that concludes the third-quarter earnings call! We saw a far more tempered, far more restrained Elon Musk, and a more confident Zach Kirkhorn. Calm, composed and quick, this earnings call appears to be one of Tesla’s smoothest yet. I’m inclined to be more optimistic about the company’s future after this Q&A session. And it appears that the company’s shareholders are too. At the end of the call, TSLA stock has remained where it was when the session started. No wild swings — and everyone’s the better for it.
16:34 PT – Dan Levy from Credit Suisse questions Gigafactory 3’s Model 3 production ramp, and how smooth will it be. Elon notes that he is optimistic about Gigafactory 3’s ramp, but not on a week-by-week basis. This is quite impressive for Elon Musk. In previous earnings calls where he was much more emotionally charged, I can’t help but think that he would have given an ambitious estimate as a response. Not so much anymore.
16:30 PT – Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research asks about how Tesla’s thinking about Model S and X have evolved, and if Model 3 has cannibalized sales of the flagships. Elon explains that the S and X are niche products, made in low volumes and higher prices. “We continue to make them more for sentimental reasons than anything else,” Musk said, adding that “If you’re buying an electric (full-sized sedan) and you don’t buy a Model S, you’re making a mistake.” It is evident from Elon’s statements that the Model S still holds a special, special place in his heart.
Kirkhorn did state that Model S and X are seeing more production lately due to increasing demand. Though delivery numbers for the Model S and X this quarter actually “understate the interest in the product,” he said. Elon also announced an upcoming upgrade for the Model S, X, and 3 that will improve comfort, feel and range. VP for Tech Drew Baglino adds that this upcoming updates will make Supercharging better too.
16:23 PT – Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank asks about electric pickups, particularly the Tesla Pickup Truck. He also asks about the baseline for Tesla’s baseline for orders quarter to date. Musk responds by stating that the Tesla Cybertruck is the company’s best ever, though he also mentioned that he could be wrong about this.
Kirkhorn, speaking about Tesla’s baseline orders, noted that the company is focused on moving quickly as it can. “We believe everyone should be driving an electric car,” he said. Musk adds a long-term (very long) estimate of 20 million vehicles a year.
16:20 PT – Maynard Um of Macquarie Research asks about Tesla’s software and its potential monetization opportunities, Elon reiterated the company’s intention of giving customers the most fun they can have with a car. “People spend a couple hours on average in a car. It’s a lot of time,” Musk said, adding that Tesla can look at its software for profit down the line, but for now, the company is simply focused on improving user experience.
16:16 PT – Morgan Stanley asks if vehicles produced in China could be the most profitable vehicle in Tesla’s lineup. Kirkhorn states that Tesla expects China vehicles to be in line with the cars from Fremont. The company is still working on landing the right mix for the Chinese market. “For now, it’s safe to assume that it’s in line with the margins of cars coming out of the Fremont factory,” he said.
When asked if Tesla will be open to the idea of becoming a supplier of batteries and drivetrains to other OEMs, Elon Musk stated that it is in line with Tesla’s mission to help other carmakers in their EV initiatives. “It’s something we’re open to,” Musk said.
16:13 PT – Daniel Galves from Wolfe Research. He asks about the auto gross margin from Q2 to Q3, as well as potential headwinds for the Shanghai plant. CTO Kirkhorn states that Tesla is working hard to prevent ramp inefficiencies for Gigafactory 3 that it experienced in Fremont. He also explained that Tesla is working on a way to implement a “targeted” way of adjusting prices for its products.
16:08 PT – Elon Musk confirms that Gigafactory 3 Phase 2 is for battery and module production. More construction is due in Shanghai as well, as preparations for Model Y production gets underway. As for Tesla Insurance, the CTO stated that the service will be expanded to other US states, as well as some foreign territories. “The goal here is to make sure that customers have an alternative if their insurance rates are high,” Kirkhorn said.
16:05 PT – Asked about the DeepScale acquisition and how it could help Tesla’s FSD initiative, Musk stated that the startup is a very tiny company. That being said, DeepScale has expertise in reducing the size of Neural Nets, “which is very helpful in slightly accelerating FSD,” he said.
16:00 PT – When asked if Tesla would consider selling NoA and Summon features as individual modules, Musk stated that the company will remain selling the suite as a whole. Responding to an inquiry about the Model Y’s launch and if it would interfere with Model 3 production, Musk assured that the electric sedan should not be affected that much.
15:57 PT – Questions from Say are up. First up, advertising. Is word of mouth enough? Elon says it’s more than enough. “We have no plans to advertise at this time,” he says. Tesla may do advertising in the future, but they will be more informative in nature.
When asked about Tesla Energy, Musk stated that he expects the business to be even bigger than the company’s automotive business. “Tesla Energy is the least appreciated element (of Tesla). For about 18 months, almost 2 years, we had to divert a tremendous amount of resources for the Model 3 production ramp,” Musk said, explaining that Tesla Energy’s resources paid the price for the electric sedan’s challenges. Now that Model 3 is humming along, Tesla solar and storage could see “crazy growth” in the future.
15:53 PT – Kunal Girotra, Energy Operations, discusses the improvements in Tesla’s energy business, which has seen a rise in recent months. “If it doesn’t print money, we’ll fix it or take it back,” Musk confidently said, referring to the company’s revived solar business. He also mentions how homes’ value increases if they are equipped with clean energy equipment such as solar panels.
Girotra also mentions that Tesla is able to offer low solar prices because it doesn’t do advertising, lowering the company’s costs of acquisition. An enthusiastic Elon Musk adds more details, interrupting Kunal. This is not annoyed Elon though — rather, the CEO in this call is more like a very excited Musk.
15:47 PT – CFO Zachary Kirkhorn takes the stage. He explains how Tesla achieved GAAP profitability. Model S and X ASPs increased, Model 3 ASPs declined slightly, the CFO noted. “With the release of Smart Summon, we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue,” Kirkhorn added, emphasizing Tesla’s strong positive free cash flow in the third quarter.
Kirkhorn emphasizes that despite increases to production backlogs, orders continue to grow for the company’s electric cars. Demand is strong. The no-demand narrative is dead, and Tesla is stepping on its carcass at this point. The CFO also pledges to further reduce costs.
15:43 PT – Early access release of a “feature complete” version of Full Self-Driving is expected to be rolled out by the end of the year, says Musk. He adds that Tesla is focused on opening more Gigafactories in several countries. Lastly, Tesla is also releasing Solar Roof Version 3, which is “finally ready for the big time.” Official product launch of Solar Roof Version 3 will be done tomorrow.
15:40 PT – CEO Elon Musk thanks the Tesla team for pushing hard to achieve GAAP profitability. “Operating costs are at their lowest levels since Model 3 production started,” Musk said. He also mentions that Gigafactory 3 is already conducting Model 3 production activities. Equipment in Gigafactory 3 was installed while the factory shell was still under construction.
Gigafactory 4 will be announced by the end of 2019. Tesla is “confident” that Model Y could enter production in Summer 2020. “Model Y will outsell S, X, and 3 combined.” Musk also mentions V10, which includes the first version of Smart Summon. “There’s now been a million uses of Smart Summon.” A new version of Smart Summon is set to be released soon, taking the learnings that were gathered from the feature’s initial release.
15:35 PT – And so it begins. Senior Director of Investor Relations Martin Viecha takes the stage. He provides an overview of the topics that the earnings call will cover. Hands over the stage to Elon Musk.
15:31 PT – The earnings call should start any moment now. That being said, it’s understandable if Tesla is taking its time. Unlike the previous quarters, the company is coming to this call not to explain a loss, but to highlight a victory.
15:26 PT – It’s now just a few minutes before the Q3 2019 earnings call is expected to begin. This is a very exciting time for Tesla.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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