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Tesla’s Q3 results and Wall St’s reaction: When record deliveries is bad news

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third-quarter results set new production and vehicle delivery records for the electric car maker. With a total of 96,155 electric cars produced and about 97,000 delivered between July and September, as well as an update that revealed that the company achieved record net orders in Q3, Tesla’s results were objectively impressive.  

Yet, the market’s reaction to Tesla’s Q3 results was unforgiving. TSLA stock dipped over 4% in after-hours trading following the company’s release of its record third-quarter results. Bearish outlooks were shared by analysts covering the company once more, and questions about the demand for Tesla’s vehicles were rekindled. 

A key driver of this negative narrative was Tesla’s reported miss of Wall Street’s expectations, as analysts polled by FactSet had an average estimate of 99,000 deliveries for Q3 2019. It should be noted that this estimate did not represent the latest consensus numbers from the greater number of analysts covering the company prior to the release of the Q3 production and delivery results. 

FactSet usually utilizes about 10-12 analyst estimates to create a consensus, but over 20 analysts are covering Tesla. If one were to list the average estimates from 21 financial firms covering the electric car maker, one would see that Tesla’s “miss” might not really be a miss at all. In fact, it would appear that Tesla actually met Wall Street’s expectations. 

Among New Street, Baird, BAML, Nomura, CSFB, Macquarie, Bernstein, DB, Cowen, JPM, OpCo, CE, MS, UBS, Wolfe, JMP, Needham, ISI, RBC, Barclays, and Wedbush, the actual delivery estimates among analysts covering the company was 94,422 units, comprised of 76,831 Model 3 and 17,591 Model S and X. That’s more conservative compared to Tesla’s 97,000 deliveries, comprised of 79,600 Model 3 and 17,400 Model S and X. 

In a way, a good part of the bearish narrative that emerged following the release of the Q3 2019 results was due to a delivery target quoted in a leaked Elon Musk email that made the rounds just days before the end of the quarter. In the message, Musk rallied Tesla’s employees to push deliveries since the company has a chance of hitting 100,000 deliveries in Q3. That 100,000 delivery target was not official guidance from Tesla, but it seemed like it was practically considered as such by some analysts covering the electric car maker. 

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With Tesla’s official delivery figures falling short of the 100,000 mark, it became pretty easy to frame the narrative as a disappointing quarter for deliveries. The numbers are anything but, especially considering that sales among veteran automakers in the United States experienced a difficult third quarter. 

Japanese carmakers Toyota and Honda, two of the US’ leading Asian automakers, suffered double-digit declines that were worse than analysts anticipated. Ford, the maker of America’s most popular vehicle, also saw its sales sink by 4.9% year-over-year. Compared to these, Tesla’s 16.2% year-over-year improvement in deliveries is quite impressive. 

In the aftermath of Tesla’s Q3 2019 results and the unfortunate reaction of the market, is Tesla completely blameless? Not completely. It is unfortunate, but executives such as Elon Musk must realize that at this point, Tesla is playing a game that is not exactly fair, as evidenced by the CEO’s informal delivery target seemingly being considered as guidance by some analysts. In this light, emails with lofty forecasts might prove unwise in the future, or stronger safeguards must at least be placed to ensure that no internal emails are leaked. 

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -6.53% at $227.26 per share. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong

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Credit: @thaichiminh1907/X

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) showrooms have been picked clean ahead of the end of the third quarter of the year, as demand looks to be strong and delivery estimates for new vehicles are pushed into late 2026 and early 2027.

Tesla appears to have sold out of many of its Model 3 and Model Y trim levels in the United States, as only the Model Y RWD and Model Y All-Wheel-Drive are available for delivery before the end of the year.

Additionally, many showrooms are either completely empty or void of all but just one demo unit within the buildings themselves in an effort to bolster what could be one of Tesla’s best quarters in vehicle deliveries in recent memory.

Additionally, when I spoke to the guys at Tesla Mechanicsburg two weeks ago, when I returned the Model Y L, their third hauler of the week had just arrived, and every vehicle on it, along with every vehicle in their delivery lot, was accounted for and had a name attached to it for delivery.

Tesla saw a 25 percent increase in deliveries in Q2 compared to the same quarter the year before. The vast majority of the 480,126 units it delivered, 467,762 vehicles to be exact, were the Model 3 and Model Y.

In Q3 2025, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, once again a figure that was dominated by the company’s two mass-market vehicles. Analysts have unusually wide predictions for this quarter, likely because so many firms missed the Q2 delivery figure by such a substantial margin; Wall Street predicted 408,000 cars, while Tesla delivered 480,000.

Goldman Sachs has Tesla slotted for 435,000 deliveries in Q3, while JPMorgan said it anticipates 482,000. The median guess is about 449,000 deliveries for Q3.

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SpaceX turned a heralding moment for Starship into its greatest

Starship reached orbit despite losing an engine, deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Flight 14.

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SpaceX’s Starship reached orbit for the first time on Monday, and for a few nail-biting minutes it looked like it wouldn’t. During ascent on Flight 14, one of Ship 41’s six Raptor engines shut down early, and SpaceX’s livestream host Dan Huot told viewers the team had decided not to commit to orbit. Minutes later, after what Huot described as a lot of conversation in the control room, the final poll came back in favor, and a roughly 19 second burn of a single Raptor pushed the ship into orbit about 170 miles up.

The reversal matters because SpaceX had written the exit ramp into the mission plan. The company said it would only fire the orbital insertion burn if flight controllers confirmed enough backup hardware remained for the deorbit burn, a condition Teslarati laid out ahead of the flight. Losing an engine was exactly the scenario that rule was built for.

Pressing forward fits Elon Musk’s history. Falcon 1 failed three straight times before its fourth launch reached orbit in 2008, with SpaceX nearly out of money, and Starship was developed by flying prototypes until they broke. What changed this year SpaceX going public, and with $SPCX sliding below its IPO price in July when Flight 13 slipped, the short interest climbed significantly, as Teslarati reported at the time. A Starship potentially lost today with revenue generating next-gen Starlink satellites aboard would have landed directly on shareholders.

That pressure showed up after orbit. SpaceX cut a flight planned to last nearly 10 hours to about three, moving splashdown from west of Chile to the North Pacific near Hawaii. SpaceX gave no reason, though Musk said this month the company was being extremely cautious about debris risk. The single Raptor for deorbit worked, and Ship 41 completed its flip and landing burn before breaking apart in the water, an outcome SpaceX expected. Musk has structured SpaceX’s governance to shield long term bets from market pressure.

The payload is the bigger business story. Musk posted that all 26 Starlink V3 satellites deployed and are “operating nominally.” Each V3 is rated for about 1 Tbps of downlink and 160 Gbps of uplink, so this single launch adds roughly 26 Tbps, about 10 times what a Falcon 9 load of V2 Mini satellites adds. The V3 is too large for Falcon 9, making Starship the only vehicle that can build out the planned 100,000 satellite constellation, at up to 60 per flight once it reaches routine service. Unlike the 20 V3 units on Flight 13, which reentered on a suborbital path, these will raise their orbits and could begin serving customers within weeks and bring in hundreds of millions of additional dollars in projected Starlink revenue.

SpaceX has already begun winding down Falcon 9 Starlink launches from Florida in favor of Starship. Reported targets put Flight 15 as early as October 19, leaving about three weeks to diagnose Monday’s engine shutdown before the next orbital attempt.

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SpaceX just got the green light Starship has waited years for

The FAA has cleared Starship Flight 14, setting up SpaceX’s first orbital attempt on Monday.

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SpaceX has cleared the last regulatory hurdle standing between Starship and its first trip to orbit. The Federal Aviation Administration issued the launch license for Starship Flight 14 late Saturday, keeping the mission on track for liftoff Monday, September 28, from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas.

The 75 minute launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central, and Boca Chica Beach closures are also scheduled for September 29 and 30 as backup dates. This will be Starship’s first revenue generating mission.

The license was the missing piece after SpaceX completed a full wet dress rehearsal with Booster 21 and Ship 41 on September 24. At the time, the company said the flight remained on track pending regulatory approval. Because Flight 14 flies an orbital profile, the FAA had to sign off on a modified license that met its safety, payload and financial responsibility requirements.

Observers combing through the new FAA paperwork also noticed that lightning no longer appears among Starship’s listed launch hazards. If that holds, it matters more for where Starship is headed than for Monday’s attempt. Florida and Louisiana, home to LC-39A and the planned Starbase Louisiana site, see some of the most frequent lightning in the United States.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Flight 14 is the mission SpaceX has been building toward for months. Ship 41 will carry 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first operational V3 units to be deployed, and attempt roughly six orbits at about 275 kilometers over a flight lasting just under 10 hours. SpaceX says the ship will only perform its orbital insertion burn after flight controllers confirm enough hardware redundancy remains for the deorbit burn at the end of the mission. Ship 41 is targeting a splashdown in the Pacific west of Chile, while Super Heavy will return to the Gulf of Mexico.

The date carries some symbolism as well. A Monday launch would come 10 years and one day after Elon Musk first presented the Interplanetary Transport System, the design that became Starship, at the International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico.

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SpaceX has not announced what comes next, but air traffic planning slides reported this week, list Flight 15 no earlier than October 19 and a first Starship launch from LC-39A in Florida no earlier than October 30. Both dates depend on how Monday goes.

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