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LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2020 earnings call summary

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third-quarter earnings call comes on the heels of an impressive quarter that saw the electric car maker posting $8.771 billion in revenue and $809M GAAP operating income, beating Wall Street’s estimates once more. With these results, Tesla has now posted five consecutive profitable quarters.

As revealed in the company’s Q3 2020 Update Letter, Tesla currently sits on $5.9 billion in cash. This is despite the company’s simultaneous construction of Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin, and Gigafactory Texas. Impressively enough, Model 3 and Model Y production have reached a run-rate of 500,000 vehicles per year at the Fremont factory. This, together with the facility’s capability to produce 90,000 Model S and Model X annually, as well as Gigafactory Shanghai’s current 250,000-per-year capacity, allows Tesla to take a definitive step towards a run-rate of 1 million cars per year.

For today’s earnings call, Tesla executives are expected to address questions surrounding the company’s plans for the coming quarters, particularly its battery cell production strategy. Updates on future projects such as the Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster may also be mentioned, as well as more details on the third quarter’s surprising Tesla Energy results.

(Credit: Tesla)

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2020 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.

15:35 PT: And that’s it for the Q3 2020 earnings call! Thanks so much for staying with us for yet another live blog. We will see you in the next one.

15:34 PT: Final question from Philippe Houchois from Jefferies, who asks about Tesla’s business model for stationary storage. Johnson notes that Tesla is already seeing how energy prices are already seeing benefits from products like the Megapack and Powerwall. Using the hardware and software platform in the form of Autobidder, Tesla Energy has tons of potential.

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The analyst also asks about Tesla’s skateboard design, which Musk confirmed will be obsolete in the long term. Musk notes that Tesla is looking to make its vehicles kind of like the way a toy car is made, with large casts and few parts. Using batteries as part of the vehicle’s structure is used in aircraft and rockets, so this approach would likely work for cars too. With such a strategy, Tesla is literally borrowing from orbital-class rocket design philosophy.

“You wouldn’t want to put a box in a box,” Musk noted. He did state that the transition away from the skateboard design won’t happen overnight, but it is bound to happen.

15:30 PT: Ben Kallo of Baird asks about OEMs and how they can get their act together. Elon notes that there will definitely be other car companies even after the EV age. He notes that Tesla designs and builds so much more of its cars than traditional OEMs. “It’s not very adventurous, and all the parts end up looking the same since they go to the same suppliers,” he said. “We’re probably an order of magnitude more vertically-integrated than other companies,” he adds.

(Credit: Jerome Guillen/LinkedIn)

Tesla is working on several parties to ensure that the Semi will have a legitimate charging infrastructure on the vehicle. “We’re not working in isolation,” Guillen noted.

Musk adds that the Semi consumes about 5-6x the cells of conventional cars. “We need to solve cell constraints,” the CEO states. When asked if the Semi and autonomy could be a material business, Musk stated that there is no doubt. Guillen added that the tech that Tesla is putting on the Semi is identical to the tech the company is putting on its other vehicles.

As a follow-up, Levy asked about Tesla’s strategy with pricing, especially with regards to Berlin-made vehicles. Kirkhorn explains that this is affected by different factors, though Tesla is trying to move production higher to optimize pricing.

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15:20 PT: Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research asks about the Cybertruck and its ramp. Musk notes that he and the Tesla team are working hard on making sure that the Cybertruck will be better than the prototype that was unveiled last year. “We want the car we deliver to be better than the car we unveiled.” Musk notes that there are a “lot of small improvements” that have been made to the vehicle, making it better than its already-impressive prototype. “I think it’s going to be better than what we showed. It will be made in Austin,” he added.

Musk reiterates that the Cybertruck’s hard exoskeleton will likely present some challenges with the vehicle’s manufacturing. “But nevertheless, “if all goes well, we can do some Cybertruck deliveries towards the end of next year.” Musk predicts lots of deliveries in 2022 and the year after.

(Credit: @FutureJurvetson/ Twitter)

15:15 PT: Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer asks about Tesla’s processes and operations/equipment that are coming in-house. Musk notes that Tesla is “absurdly vertically integrated.” Tesla literally designs the machine, then the company makes the machine. “We made the machine that made the machine that made the machine. We’d like to outsource less,” Musk remarked. “This makes it quite difficult to copy Tesla,” he added. Musk admits that he’s not sure if insane vertical integration is a smart move, but so far, it appears that it is.

Musk is then asked about Tesla’s balance sheet, and how the company is looking to operate in the near future. “We’re trying to spend money at the fastest rate without wasting any of it,” Musk noted.

15:10 PT: Analyst questions begin. Wolfe Research is up first, asking about the targets that were announced during Battery Day. Elon noted that it’s difficult to predict Tesla’s actual output, but 20 million vehicles is a good number, representing 1% of the vehicles that are produced this year. Tesla has a mission to accelerate the advent of sustainability after all, and it needs volume to do that.

When asked about Tesla’s cell production, Musk noted that Tesla could and will change all aspects of the company’s battery cells. “We will change all aspects of the cell,” he said. Tesla will be exploring varying chemistries for its batteries over time. This is classic Tesla, in a way, as the electric car maker is still showing its tendency to continuously innovate.

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15:05 PT: Elon highlights why making Tesla’s cars affordable is pivotal. “All of these margins will look comically small when you factor in Autonomy,” Musk said. Adding to the CEO’s statement, Kirkhorn stated that Tesla is moving full speed ahead with as much volume as possible. He adds that Tesla has grown volume and margins even with all the price reductions of Tesla’s vehicle lineup. In addition to reducing costs, the cars get better, and this becomes a reason for more consumers to purchase the company’s cars.

15:00 PT: A question from an institutional investor is brought up about Tesla’s HVAC plan, especially in light of the Model Y’s heat pump. Drew Baglino notes that the Model Y’s heat pump does provide Tesla with some background in this sense, and Elon Musk noted that the company has tech that should allow for home products to be developed.

(Credit: Tesla)

14:58 PT: Shareholder questions begin with a question about the company’s 4680 cells and if they will be produced at the same time as vehicle ramp in Berlin, which Drew Baglino confirms will indeed be the case. As for the idea of FSD being carried over from one vehicle to the next, Elon Musk noted that Tesla will “give it some thought.”

An inquiry about Solar Roof installation constraints was also asked. According to Johnson, the main constraint today lies in the installers themselves. It is pertinent for Tesla to ensure that the Solar Roof is easy to install, and so far, the response from third-party installers have been positive. Elon Musk notes that Solar Roof’s true potential would likely be very evident next year.

In response to a question about the idea of one of Tesla’s businesses spinning off into its own company, Musk discusses how Tesla is essentially a series of startups. “Every major product line is a startup. Every big new plant is a startup. And frankly, sometimes we have to learn a lesson a few times before it sinks in,” Musk remarked. He also noted that “Tesla is not dependent on enterprise software,” implying that Tesla develops all of its operational software internally.

No plans to spin anything out yet though. “It just adds complexity,” Musk said.

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14:50 PT: RJ Johnson of Tesla Energy takes the stage. He discusses how Tesla Energy is ramping. “We have more demand than supply through 2021,” he said. Megapack is seeing more demand over the following year. He notes that as costs go lower, sustainable technologies are poised to replace fossil fuel-powered solutions. Other Tesla Energy products such as Autobidder and Powerwall continue to find more adoption as well.

Solar Roof is exciting as the company is gaining more experience in installing the product quickly. Solar Roof installation’s record now stands at 1.5 days.

14:45 PT: To conclude, Musk thanks Tesla’s employees and suppliers. He also extends thanks to investors who have stuck with the company through thick and thin. “I’ve never felt more optimistic about Tesla than I do today,” Musk said.

Zach Kirkhorn takes the stage. He mentions how Tesla now has five profitable quarter. The company’s regulatory credit sales continue to be strong. And despite expenses being higher due to Elon Musk’s payout from his compensation plan, the company was able to keep its numbers strong just the same. Manufacturing and operational costs continue to decrease, as per the CFO.

14:41 PT: The CEO also highlights that the Autopilot rewrite is a generalized approach to FSD, meaning that there are no specialized sensors needed for the vehicles to operate themselves.

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In terms of capacity, Elon mentions the expansion of Gigafactory Shanghai, Gigafactory Berlin, and Gigafactory Texas. “We’re making progress on three major factories,” he said, adding that “always impressed by how much the Tesla China team makes.” Musk also notes that Giga Berlin, due to the ramp of new technology, the production of the facility will start slow, and then ramp to greater outputs over time. Giga Berlin could take about 12-24 months to reach full production capacity.

(Credit: Tesla)

14:36 PT: Elon talks about how Q3 is a record quarter for Tesla. Full Stop. “Q3 was our best quarter in history,” he said. The CEO also discusses Battery Day, the culmination of years’ worth of work by the company. Musk notes that in a few years, batteries could cost half as much with cheaper production costs.

Musk also discusses updates to the rollout of Full Self-Driving. He specifically extends his thanks to the Autopilot team, which has been working like crazy to release the highly-anticipated rewrite. Musk states that the Autopilot rewrite could roll out to more drivers this weekend, with wide release by the end of the year.

14:34 PT: And we’re off! Tesla Investor Relations’ Martin Viecha takes the floor. Just like previous calls, CEO Elon Musk and CFO Zachary Kirkhorn are present, as well as other Tesla executives. Here’s Elon’s opening remarks.

14:32 PT: Then again, Tesla posted $809M GAAP operating income in Q3. That’s more than enough to justify a little delay, I guess.

14:30 PT: And… It’s starting! Here we go, folks… Wait, scratch that. It’s back to classical music.

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14:25 PT: I gotta admit, this classical music is getting more and more relaxing by the quarter.

14:20 PT: It is time once more for Tesla’s quarterly earnings report! This makes five consecutive profitable quarters for Tesla now, which is something that definitely did not seem to be on the horizon in early 2019. Back then, it seemed like TSLA was the punching bag of every bear and critic out there. But since Q3 2019, things have changed, a whole lot. Needless to say, this earnings call will definitely be interesting.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.

The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.

Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.

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This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.

The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.

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However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.

Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.

Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.

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Elon Musk

Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.

Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.

The analyst said:

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

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Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.

There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.

This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.

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Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.

Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale

By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.

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He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:

  1. Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
  2. Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
  3. Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.

Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.

Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.

So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.

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