Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 Update Letter. Similar to past quarters, Tesla remained profitable in Q4 despite factors like reductions in the company’s average selling price and the cost of the Cybertruck ramp. Still, Tesla posted revenues of $25.17 billion and an 8.2% operating margin in Q4 2023.
Tesla highlighted several details in its Q4 and FY 2024 Update Letter. For one, the company emphasized that the Model Y became the world’s best-selling car with 1.2 million units sold in 2023. Tesla Energy also had a breakthrough year, with energy generation and storage profits almost quadrupling in 2023.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.
17:33 CDT – And that wraps up Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call! In a way, this earnings call was quite smooth. Elon Musk avoided outlandish predictions (he didn’t even predict that Tesla would achieve full autonomous driving this 2024!), and the company’s executives addressed every question in a professional and objective manner. Overall, I’m quite optimistic about Tesla this 2024.
Thank you once more for joining us for yet another live blog. Until the next big event!
Q4 & Full Year 2023 Shareholder Update → https://t.co/sXBSeLibSL
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Highlights
Our global production reached a record level in Q4, achieving a nearly 2 million annualized run rate.
At Giga Texas, we delivered the first Cybertrucks to customers, with production & deliveries… pic.twitter.com/hMXmY5CIxp— Tesla (@Tesla) January 24, 2024
17:32 CDT – Colin Langan from Wells Fargo asks if there are still some opportunity for Tesla to go below its current costs. The CFO noted that Tesla is continually looking for places where it can lower its costs. Taneja declined to provide details, but he noted that Tesla is definitely opportunity to reduce costs Musk joked that a 1% reduction on costs is roughly equal to $1 billion in savings.
“With good execution, it’s not a slam dunk, but if we execute very well, Tesla would be the most valuable company in the world,” Musk said.
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17:22 CDT – Dan Levy asks what extent the Cybertruck is a proving ground for Tesla’s next-generation platform. Tesla executives noted that the Cybertruck is not really a proving ground for the next-gen platform, since Tesla is already far along in the development of its upcoming vehicles.
It should also be noted that the manufacturing machine that will be used for the next-gen car is unique, making it hard to copy.
Levy asks a follow-up question about Project Dojo. Musk notes that Tesla is pursuing a dual path with both NVIDIA and Dojo. He admits that Dojo is a long shot, however, since it is a higher-risk, high payoff program. He confirmed that Dojo is already working and doing training programs, and Dojo 1.5 and other iterations could be explored in the future.
17:20 CDT – Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley asks if Tesla will hold an AI Day event this year. Musk noted that Tesla’s competitors have started copying Tesla’s innovations that are highlighted in these events, so he is quite cautious. He did note, however, that an event may be held sometime this year.
As a follow-up, Jonas asks about China-based OEMs expanding to the Western market. He asks if Tesla would consider collaborating with Chinese carmakers. Musk admitted that China-based OEMs are very impressive so they would likely see a lot of success outside China. “They’re extremely good,” Musk said. “If there are no trade barriers, they would dominate.”
He noted that there is no obvious opportunity to partner with a Chinese OEM, though Tesla is happy to help with the Supercharger Network and FSD licensing.
17:17 CDT – In a follow up question, Ferragu asked about what Tesla believes is its total addressable market with the company’s current portfolio. Musk stated that Tesla does not have a firm idea of this, though executives noted that in the automotive industry, EVs still comprise a very small portion.
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Musk noted that cars like the Model Y are actually expensive vehicles, so it’s quite remarkable that the vehicle became the world’s best-selling car in 2023.
The $TSLA growth story continues… pic.twitter.com/VfwjUtInNx— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) January 24, 2024
17:13 CDT – Analyst questions begin. Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research asks about Tesla’s cost reduction. He notes that the costs per car is going down over several quarters, which is good but quite normal industries like microelectronics. He asks if Tesla can continue its pace.
The CFO reiterated that he believes Tesla can maintain its pace even if it is a game of pennies. “We are constantly looking for what we can do to reduce costs,” Taneja said. He did advise that one should not project previous cost reductions.
17:07 CDT – A question about Cybertruck orders is asked. Tesla executives noted that Cybertruck’s constraint right now is production, not demand. There is also a good chance that the company could meet the Cybertruck’s existing orders this year.
Tesla executives also responded positively to the idea of including Tesla Energy in the company’s quarterly production and delivery reports. Tesla Energy should be included starting Q1 2024.
As for the preliminary results and return on investment of Tesla ads and education campaign, executives noted that the company is currently adopting strategies that focus on its cars’ safety, features, and technology. So far, these digital ads seem to be working as they are reaching people who are not really that familiar with electric cars.
Tesla is going to keep exploring digital campaign, though the company also does not want to overspend on digital campaign. That said, Musk noted that there is definitely some need to raise awareness among consumers, particularly in areas like Japan.
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17:02 CDT – A question is asked about the timeline of Optimus’ production. Musk noted that Tesla’s experience with its vehicles would actually be useful since the company’s cars are already robots. He also noted that Optimus has the potential to far exceed the value of Tesla’s other products combined.
Musk noted that there’s a good chance some Optimus units could be shipped sometime next year. Considering Tesla’s history with its projects, however, it would not be surprising if it takes significantly more time before regular consumers can purchase a production Optimus robot.
“The team is dong amazing work,” Musk said. He also stated that Tesla is making sure Optimus is safe, especially at scale. He also noted that the barrier is getting Optimus to do something useful. “Gotta get the utility up,” Musk said.
Q4 & Full Year 2023 Earnings Call https://t.co/YxM7WA1LKe— Tesla (@Tesla) January 24, 2024
16:58 CDT – A question is asked about the construction of Giga Mexico and Giga Nevada. Tesla executives noted that Giga Nevada’s groundbreaking for its expansion already happened, and for Giga Mexico, Tesla has already started long lead work. But it is still taking it slowly.
When asked about other carmakers potentially licensing FSD, Musk noted that other automakers are probably still not believing that FSD could be real. But “some tentative conversations” are happening.
16:55 CDT – A question is asked if Tesla anticipates a 50% volume CAGR to be realized in either of 2024 or 2025. The CFO noted that there will be periods where Tesla won’t be growing at the same rate.
16:54 CDT – A question is asked about Tesla’s expectation for automotive gross margins in FY 2024. Taneja stated that Tesla is focused on reducing the costs of its vehicles in Q4. “This is a constant exercise and we just have chase down every penny possible,” the CFO said.
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“If the interest rates comes down quickly, I think margins will be good,” Musk said.
16:53 CDT – A question is asked about Elon Musk’s concerns that he does not have 25% of voting rights on Tesla has been asked. Musk noted that he sees a path to making Tesla an AI juggernaut, though he also is wary of activists that infiltrate Tesla’s institutional shareholders.
16:51 CDT – A question about the barriers to ramping 4680 cells is asked. Musk clarified that battery production is a notably challenging endeavor. The Tesla executives noted that 4680 production is ahead of Cybertruck ramp, and more efforts are underway to ramp the batteries’ production even further.
“Definitely this year would be a good year for ramping 4680,” a Tesla executive said. Musk adds that Tesla’s 4680 project does not in any way affect the company’s battery supply deals.
Here's how Tesla's Free Cash Flow looks on a trailing 12-month basis over the past several years.
Q4 Operating Cash Flows were the highest in 15 months and a Top 3 quarter all-time. ? pic.twitter.com/AReROSDy7U— James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) January 24, 2024
16:49 CDT – Investor questions begin. Musk joked that he is often optimistic with time, but Tesla’s current schedule states that production of the next-generation platform should start around the end of 2025. There’s just a lot of new technology in the car, but it also includes a lot of new manufacturing innovations.
It would be a hard project, but once optimized, it would probably be a game-changer when it comes to volume vehicle production. Musk also noted that the vehicle would be produced at Giga Texas, since it would be easier for Tesla to have its engineers on hand for the project.
“We’re currently expecting to start production in late 2024. We will be sleeping on the production line. But I am confident that once it’s growing, it would be heads and shoulders above,” Musk said.
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16:45 CDT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja takes the floor. Like Musk, he thanks Tesla’s team for their work in 2023. He notes that Tesla achieved record results in 2023 despite high interest rates.
Taneja also highlighted the idea that a lot of consumers are still not familiar with Tesla. Thus, it is pertinent for the company to educate as many customers as possible. The CFO also shared some optimism about Tesla Energy, whose growth should outpace the company’s automotive business this year.
“We are currently expecting our capital expenditure this 2024 to be in excess of $10 billion,” the CFO noted.
16:40 CDT – Musk states that Tesla is in the middle of its second growth wave. This wave, as per the Q4 and FY 2023 Update Letter, would likely be driven by the next-generation platform. Musk also noted that FSD V12 should be available to regular customers in the near future.
“Tesla is the most efficient company at AI inference. We’re quite far in regards to other companies in the world in terms of AI inference,” Musk said.
He also discusses the upgraded Tesla Model 3, a car that Musk noted would be great to test drive. He also noted that Tesla is far along in the development of its next-generation platform. Musk noted that the vehicle would start its production at Giga Texas, followed by other sites like Giga Mexico and other locations. “We’re very excited about [Tesla’s next vehicle.]” Musk said.
Summing up his remarks, Musk reiterated that he sees a path to Tesla becoming the world’s most valuable company.
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16:35 CDT – Elon Musk starts his opening remarks. He states that the Tesla team did a stellar job in 2023, with the company hitting an annualized run rate of 2 million vehicles per year near the end of Q4. The Fremont Factory also produced 560,000 cars in 2023, making it the highest productivity car plant in the United States.
“It was there when we got it, and now it’s the most productive plant on this side of the world. It’s enriched the community in so many ways. It’s really a gem,” Musk said. “I’m super proud of the people that work there.”
He also noted that the Model Y became the world’s best selling car in the world with over 1.2 million units sold in 2023. FCF is notable as well.
16:34 CDT – Tesla VP of IR Martin Viecha opens the call. He introduces Elon Musk and other Tesla executives.
16:32 CDT – Ok, it’s past 16:30 CDT and the call hasn’t started yet. Elon Time?
16:25 CDT – The ambient music begins in Tesla’s stream for the Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call. Will it start on time, in three minutes? We shall see.
16:15 CDT – Hello, everyone, and welcome to our live blog of Tesla’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings call. Tesla missed analyst estimates for a number of key metrics, and it shows in the after-market performance of TSLA shares. Despite this, it is difficult to deny that the electric vehicle maker had an impressive 2023, with the company meeting its vehicle delivery goal of 1.8 million vehicles and the Cybertruck finally starting its customer deliveries.
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Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
