Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) rises amid hints of Fremont plant’s production boost, new hiring ramp
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is showing some momentum on Tuesday amidst the release of a leaked memo from Automotive President Jerome Guillen, which pointed to an upcoming production boost in the company’s Fremont, CA factory, as well a renewed hiring ramp. Guillen also provided some updates in the progress of Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, which is being constructed at a rapid rate.
The President of Automotive was quite cautious in his message, stating that while he can’t give any specific information at this point, he is confident that Tesla employees will be “delighted” at the upcoming developments in the company. The executive added that the company hit “new records in all production lines for output and efficiency” during Q2 2019 while maintaining record quality. This is true for both the Fremont factory, where the Model S, 3, and X are produced, as well as Gigafactory 1, where the Model 3’s 2170 battery cells and drive units are manufactured.
Perhaps quite surprisingly, Guillen’s leaked note also included a section where the Automotive President urged employees to inform their friends and acquaintances that there are a lot of open positions in the company. “As we continue to ramp up production, please tell your friends and neighbors that we have lots of exciting new positions open, both in Fremont and at Giga,” Guillen wrote. This is notable, mainly since Tesla CEO Elon Musk has conducted a series of job cuts in previous months in an effort to keep Tesla as lean and efficient as possible. A new hiring ramp then suggests that Tesla is preparing to tackle projects that cannot be accomplished with its existing team.
Tesla, for its part, has not released a comment about the Automotive President’s leaked memo.
The contents of Guillen’s memo appear to have been appreciated by TSLA shareholders, as shown by the electric car maker’s 2% rise during Tuesday’s pre-market. This is quite understandable, considering that a production boost, a renewed hiring ramp, and quick progress in Gigafactory 3 all bode well for Tesla’s future.
In the aftermath of the first quarter’s lower-than-expected results, Tesla stock experienced a steep drop, thanks in no small part to a bearish thesis which suggested that the demand for the company’s vehicles has declined. Elon Musk debunked this point during the 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting, and it was further trampled by Tesla’s record production and delivery numbers in Q2 2019.
Jerome Guillen’s leaked memo could then be perceived as yet another nail in the “demand problem” thesis. After all, it would not make much sense for Tesla to increase its production rates if the demand for its vehicles is dropping, nor would it start hiring more employees to manufacture and push its electric cars. Considering that Tesla seems to be poised to ramp its operations, it appears that the company is actually facing an increasing demand for its vehicles.
A scenario where Tesla’s vehicles are seeing more demand is actually quite feasible, especially since several territories are yet to be saturated by the company’s first mass-market vehicle, the Model 3. Tesla is yet to start delivering the electric sedan to several key right-hand-drive markets like Australia and Japan, and the company is also yet to begin producing the locally-made versions of the vehicle in China. With these projects still in the pipeline, it appears that Tesla’s growth story is far from being remotely finished.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +2.16% at $235.04 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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