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Tesla (TSLA) rises amid Wall St's adjusted first quarter delivery estimates

(Credit: Tesla)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock rose over 5% on Tuesday amidst the release of investment firm Credit Suisse’s adjusted delivery estimates for the electric car maker’s Q1 numbers. Credit Suisse estimated 75,000 and 80,000 deliveries for Tesla, a number that may very well be feasible due to the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Interestingly enough, Credit Suisse actually reiterated its “Underperform” rating and $415 price target on TSLA stock together with its updated Q1 estimates, as reported by StreetInsider. Yet despite this, TSLA stock has risen, which may be due to the fact that Tesla actually has a realistic chance of reaching the firm’s estimates despite a slow production quarter due to the widespread effect of the coronavirus.

Tesla’s Giga Shanghai in China, for example, was reopened in early February after an extended shutdown due to the onset of the coronavirus in China. The company’s main production facility in Fremont, California was also subjected to a production shutdown as COVID-19 began to hit the United States.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has suggested that the coronavirus will affect Tesla’s delivery figures, though his estimates are a bit more conservative than Credit Suisse’s expectations. Jonas believes 88,000 Tesla vehicles will be delivered when the first quarter comes to a close, a number that exceeds the Swiss firm’s predictions by about 10%.

Jonas noted that Tesla will still hold a relatively strong showing for Q1 deliveries, even though the company will not be able to take advantage of its increased delivery rate during the last two weeks of the quarter, a strategy that has become somewhat expected. “Tesla typically delivers a disproportionate share of its quarter’s units in the last two weeks of the quarter,” Jonas said in a report to investors according to Barron’s.

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While production at Fremont was shut down recently, Tesla employees still delivered some vehicles earlier in March. Tesla recently started delivering its new Model Y crossover this month as well, even adapting a new “contactless” system at some of its stores across the world.

Tesla closed out 2019 with a strong final quarter by delivering 112,000 cars, a majority of them being the Model 3 sedan. While delivery figures will most likely be smaller in the first quarter of 2020 because of the global pandemic, Tesla can still take positives from the quarter. Despite closing multiple production facilities, the company will probably still deliver more vehicles than it did in Q1 2019, a potential year-over-year growth compared to last year.

All is not grim and dark in the Tesla world. Automotive industry veteran Sandy Munro has predicted that Tesla will be the quickest automaker to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic due to the company’s vertical integration. If the pandemic manages to end within the next month, Tesla could still churn out a productive Q2 by ramping up to full production quicker than any other automaker.

Tesla shares are up 5.59% at $530.21 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments

Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

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Credit: @TeslaLarry/X

Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.

Baron doubles down on Tesla

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.

“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.

A lifelong investment

Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.

“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”

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Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk responds to Waymo’s 2,500-fleet milestone

While Tesla’s Robotaxi network is not yet on Waymo’s scale, Elon Musk has announced a number of aggressive targets for the service.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk reacted sharply to Waymo’s latest milestone after the autonomous driving company revealed its fleet had grown to 2,500 robotaxis across five major U.S. regions. 

As per Musk, the milestone is notable, but the numbers could still be improved.

“Rookie numbers”

Waymo disclosed that its current robotaxi fleet includes 1,000 vehicles in the San Francisco Bay Area, 700 in Los Angeles, 500 in Phoenix, 200 in Austin, and 100 in Atlanta, bringing the total to 2,500 units. 

When industry watcher Sawyer Merritt shared the numbers on X, Musk replied with a two-word jab: “Rookie numbers,” he wrote in a post on X, highlighting Tesla’s intention to challenge and overtake Waymo’s scale with its own Robotaxi fleet.

While Tesla’s Robotaxi network is not yet on Waymo’s scale, Elon Musk has announced a number of aggressive targets for the service. During the third quarter earnings call, he confirmed that the company expects to remove safety drivers from large parts of Austin by year-end, marking the biggest operational step forward for Tesla’s autonomous program to date.

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Tesla targets major Robotaxi expansions

Tesla’s Robotaxi pilot remains in its early phases, but Musk recently revealed that major deployments are coming soon. During his appearance on the All-In podcast, Musk said Tesla is pushing to scale its autonomous fleet to 1,000 cars in the Bay Area and 500 cars in Austin by the end of the year.

“We’re scaling up the number of cars to, what happens if you have a thousand cars? Probably we’ll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area,” Musk said.

With just two months left in Q4 2025, Tesla’s autonomous driving teams will face a compressed timeline to hit those targets. Musk, however, has maintained that Robotaxi growth is central to Tesla’s valuation and long-term competitiveness.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.1.7 real-world drive and review

On an hour-long drive, we tested v14.1.7 and tested its new capabilities, which are mostly overall performance and smoothness fixes rather than integrations of new features that are unknown to routine FSD users.

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tesla interior operating on full self driving
Credit: TESLARATI

Tesla started rolling out its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.1.7 suite last night to owners, and there are several improvements to note within the new update that are at least the start of fixes to highly-mentioned issues.

On an hour-long drive, we tested v14.1.7 and tested its new capabilities, which are mostly overall performance and smoothness fixes rather than integrations of new features that are unknown to routine FSD users. However, there are a handful of shortcomings that are still present within the suite, which are not something that will be fixed within the span of a single update.

For what it is, Full Self-Driving does an excellent job of navigating — once you get it on its correct path. Our issues tend to be confined to navigation, routing, and the decision-making process that has to do with the way the car wants to get you to your destination. There were five things that happened on our first drive with v14.1.7 that are worth mentioning. The full drive will be available at the bottom of this article.

Navigation and Routing Still Seems to Be a Major Challenge

In past content, we’ve discussed the issues with routing and navigation, and how a Tesla chooses its path. Most noticeably, these issues occur in the same areas; for me, it’s my local Supercharger. My 2026 Model Y with AI4 continues to pick less-than-optimal routes out of the Supercharger, and in this instance, it actually chose to turn down a road, pull over, and give me the wheel, essentially asking, “Hey, can you get me on the right track here?”

This is still my biggest bone to pick with FSD, even more so than some of the bonehead moves it’s made in tougher scenarios (mostly parking lots with very limited visibility due to shrubs being planted in the worst possible locations). It’s rare that it happens, but this particular Supercharger has been a true thorn in the side of my Tesla.

This is not an issue that is confined to v14.1.7, or even v14 in general. Unfortunately, it is an issue that has persisted throughout my ownership experience, as well as during Demo Drives.

Stuttering and Hesitation at Intersections was Non-Existent

There was some confusion regarding my language in a recent article where I stated Tesla is confronting the issues that have been reported regarding the “stabbing” with braking.

“Tesla began the v14.1.4 launch last night, which included minor improvements and addressed brake-stabbing issues many owners have reported. In my personal experience, the stabbing has been awful on v14.1.3, and is a major concern.

However, many things have improved, and only a couple of minor issues have been recurring. Many of the issues v13 addressed are no longer an issue, so Tesla has made significant progress.”
It has undoubtedly improved, but it is not resolved.

With that being said, I did not feel a single example of hesitation, stabbing, or stuttering at a single intersection or instance when it has been present in the past. CEO Elon Musk said it would be fixed with v14.2, so it seems like Tesla is well on its way to resolving it.

Proper Handling of Crosswalks

It’s crazy how many people still do not stop for pedestrians at clearly-marked crosswalks. I had two instances of it happen during the drive, with FSD stopping for those pedestrians both times.

Human drivers did not stop either time:

Handled Merging onto a Highway with an Inconsiderate Driver Well

Routinely, drivers will get over into the left lane, if they are able, to allow merging traffic to safely enter the freeway. It does not always happen this way, and it’s not required by law.

Not exclusive to v14.1.7, as many past iterations would have done this as well, but it was nice to watch the vehicle slow down to let that traffic pass. It then entered the freeway safely, and the entire maneuver was well done.

Took an Appropriate Move with Oncoming Foot Traffic and Debris in a Tight Alleyway

This was probably the most on-edge I was during the drive because: 1) FSD chose to take an unnecessary alleyway, and 2) there was a box and oncoming pedestrians.

The car was aware of everything that was going on. In order to avoid the box, it would have had to turn toward the pedestrians, and in order to avoid the pedestrians, it would have had to turn into the box.

It chose to wait patiently, and after the pedestrians were past the car, FSD chose to proceed.

Closing Thoughts

Overall, we’re very impressed with v14.1.7, and we think this is Tesla’s best iteration of the FSD suite yet, as it should be since it’s the newest version available. Tesla’s attention to detail regarding the brake stabbing is really well done, and it seems evident that a complete fix is on its way.

Other than the navigation issue at the very beginning, which was not an intervention, at least in my opinion, this was a really successful drive.

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