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TSLA bull explains why the Apple Car is not a threat to Tesla’s market share

(Credit: delgadocidranes/Instagram)

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Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull Gene Munster from Loup Ventures doesn’t think the Apple Car is a threat to Tesla’s market share. In the midst of TSLA’s first trading day as a stock in the S&P 500 index, Reuters reported that Apple plans to start producing its own all-electric vehicle with autonomous features by around 2024.

Speaking on behalf of Loup Ventures, Munster stated that he believes Apple will likely have a business related to autonomous vehicles within the next decade. Munster also shared that the firm doesn’t think the Apple Car would take away market share from Tesla, but rather traditional automakers. 

Loup Ventures predicts that EVs will account for close to 30% of all auto sales by 2025. It believes Tesla will hold one third of the global EV market share. As such, Apple has the opportunity to grab a good portion of the EV market from traditional automakers and other startups. 

In the stock market, it appears to be a different story. Short term, Loup Ventures predicts that the Apple Car will weigh on TSLA shares as it will be another risk factor for Tesla investors to consider in their investment thesis. The firm believes Apple will remain a negative impact on TSLA’s multiples from 2023 onwards. 

Gene Munster did have a little caveat about the Apple Car. He recalled the time when Loup Ventures expected the tech giant to launch an Apple-branded TV years ago. 

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“In the end, I was wrong. Apple never did a TV. As talk of Apple Car gains momentum, I’m reminded of a valuable lesson I learned the hard way: just because Apple is working on a product doesn’t mean it will see the light of day.”

If Apple does launch its own EV into the market, it would be the first consumer electric car coming from a giant in the tech industry. As such it might have an edge in the EV market. Legacy OEMs appear to be having difficulty harmoniously combining today’s advanced software with traditional cars. For Apple, it would be a different story. Sources with seemingly close ties to Project Titan shared that Apple would be open to partnering with a legacy automaker on its electric vehicle.

Watch a video about Apple’s focus on Autonomous Car Systems below. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. Leave a comment down below. If you have any tips to share, email us at tips@teslarati.com or reach out to me at maria@teslarati.com

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.

The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.

Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.

This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.

The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.

However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.

Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.

Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.

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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

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Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.

Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.

However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.

The analyst said:

“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”

Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.

There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.

This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.

Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing

CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.

Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.

Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.

Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.

Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale

By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.

He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:

  1. Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
  2. Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
  3. Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.

Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.

Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.

So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.

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