Investor's Corner
Tesla is getting unnecessarily weighed down by the SEC’s claims against Elon Musk
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped on Monday after the US Securities and Exchange Commission asked a judge to hold Elon Musk in contempt for reportedly violating a settlement that required him to get approval before releasing any social media posts or announcements that could be material to investors. Regardless of the judge’s decision, Elon Musk and the SEC’s run-ins with each other are adversely affecting investors and unnecessarily weighing down Tesla. This is something is best avoided, by the company and Elon Musk himself, in the future.
According to the SEC, Musk’s tweet on February 19, when he mentioned that Tesla will make “around 500K” vehicles in 2019, was a violation of his settlement with the agency last year. Musk later clarified his statement, explaining that he was talking about an annualized production rate of around 500k (roughly 10k cars per week) vehicles by 2019’s end, but that deliveries for the year are “still estimated to be about 400k.”
Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2019
The SEC claimed in papers filed in a Manhattan court that Elon Musk “once again published inaccurate and material information about Tesla to his over 24 million Twitter followers, including members of the press, and made this inaccurate information available to anyone with internet access.” The SEC’s announcement adversely affected the company’s stock, sending TSLA plummeting 4% on Monday’s after-hours following the announcement. It did not take long before some of the company’s staunchest critics began to predict that Musk will be incarcerated.
Despite the company’s critics calling for Musk to be sent behind bars, Peter Haveles, a partner at Pepper Hamilton in New York whose practice specializes in commercial and regulatory disputes, noted in a statement to The Verge that another fine will likely be the result of the SEC’s claim against the Tesla CEO.
“Mr. Musk will try to argue that it’s a one-time thing, and the issue will be, is that really the case? Will the SEC come forward with evidence from Tesla that they are struggling to get Mr. Musk to comply with the process? It’s unlikely that Musk will face being barred from serving as a director or officer of a publicly traded company for the tweet,” he said, later adding that Elon Musk’s tweet doesn’t rise to the level of criminal contempt; and thus, the CEO does not have to worry about jail time.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that while the SEC might be a bit aggressive with its request to have the CEO held in contempt of court due to his February 19 tweet, Musk could have avoided the entire issue altogether if he had just been more careful. And it’s not like this is the first time such a thing happened either, as it was his Twitter activities that landed him in hot water last year due to his now infamous “funding secured” announcement.
It will likely be difficult for the SEC to prove that Elon Musk’s tweets were a violation of his settlement’s terms. For one, Musk’s February 19 tweet was made while markets were closed. Thus, it will be very challenging to gauge the “materiality” of the announcement. Musk also mentioned the same figures weeks before during the Q4 2019 earnings call, when he estimated that Tesla could produce “maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s” this year. Musk mentioned this in a later tweet, stating that the SEC seemed to have forgotten to read the transcript of Tesla’s Q4 earnings call.
SEC forgot to read Tesla earnings transcript, which clearly states 350k to 500k. How embarrassing … 🤗
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 26, 2019
It is difficult to not see a certain bias emerging from the SEC against Musk’s Twitter activities, considering that the tweet in question did not really affect Tesla stock and the estimate was already public knowledge due to the fourth quarter earnings call. In a way, it almost seems like the SEC’s recent initiative against Musk is response of sorts against the CEO’s statements against the agency. Musk has mocked the agency on Twitter in the past, dubbing it as the “Shortseller Enrichment Commission,” and in a 60 Minutes segment, he flat-out admitted that he does not respect the SEC. Ultimately, the SEC’s claim would have to rely on the premise of Elon Musk posting his Tesla-related tweet without the message being vetted first, as agreed upon in last year’s settlement.
Tesla is at a point in its history where the company could grow into one of the most potent forces in the auto industry. With Model 3 production stabilized, Gigafactory 3 under construction, and vehicles like the Model Y set to be revealed, tweets like Musk’s February 19 announcement are things that the company can do without. If led by a more careful, more calculating Elon Musk, Tesla’s inevitable rise to power will most definitely happen sooner than expected.
As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -3.52 at $288.25 per share on Tuesday’s pre-market.
Disclosure: The opinions presented in this article are the author’s alone, and do not necessarily reflect the stand of Teslarati. I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
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Tesla stock lands elusive ‘must own’ status from Wall Street firm
