Investor's Corner
Tesla set to announce another quarterly delivery record as EV interest skyrockets
Tesla is set to announce another record quarter in terms of deliveries of its all-electric vehicles. A new report suggests the electric automaker will benefit from skyrocketing gas prices, which have increased vehicle orders for Tesla over the past few months.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg suggest Tesla will report delivery figures of around 309,158 cars globally, a substantial increase from last year’s mark of 184,800 for the first three months of the year. It is a slight increase from the 308,600 vehicles Tesla delivered in Q4 2021, its most significant delivery mark for any quarter in its history.
Tesla has only increased its manufacturing capacity slightly since Q4 as it recently started delivering vehicles produced at Gigafactory Berlin in Germany. Gigafactory Texas may have contributed to the delivery figures slightly as some Model Y vehicles built at the Austin plant were spotted on roads, but it is unconfirmed whether they were actually delivered to customers and will be included in Tesla’s Q1 2022 delivery metrics.
While profitability and a healthy financial sheet are undoubtedly crucial, Tesla’s delivery numbers are among the most scrutinized metrics when a quarter closes out. Tesla has gained unequivocal recognition as the leader in the EV sector, influencing many companies to transition to a lineup of all-electric vehicles. The company’s delivery figures are often looked at as a metric to determine how quickly electric vehicles are being adopted in the United States and other territories. If data is any indication and Tesla’s metrics are perceived as a representation of EV adoption, things are going well. The automaker has increased quarterly deliveries every quarter since Q1 2020, when various shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic ended Tesla’s streak.
Tesla has depended on just two factories for its global deliveries: the Fremont Factory in Northern California, which manufactures all four Tesla Models, and Gigafactory Shanghai in China, which produces the Model 3 and Model Y. Shanghai also became an export hub for customers in Europe as Tesla waited for approval of the Berlin plant, which came later than initially expected.
-->The new record quarter could be looked at as just another test for Tesla in a world of uncertainties. As the Shanghai facility has been on lockdown due to a rise in COVID cases in China, the plant’s stagnation could have hindered an even more robust quarter for Tesla. Shanghai delivered more than half of Tesla’s 2021 total vehicle sales, outpacing the Fremont factory. The shutdown could be the reason for Tesla’s first downside in deliveries in two years.
“We see the recent China Covid flare-ups as a potential risk to the downside, given Tesla deliveries are typically weighted toward the end of the quarter,” Credit Suisse analysts Dan Levy said in the Bloomberg report. Levy expects Tesla to post 307,000 deliveries, putting it shy of a quarterly increase.
Tesla could report delivery figures as soon as today, although the automaker has not announced a specific date. Tesla shares (NASDAQ: TSLA) were up less than 0.20 percent at noon EST.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
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Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
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