Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) S&P exclusion: ‘Why the rush,’ Ex-Committee head says
Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) exclusion from the S&P 500 in September came as a shock to many shareholders and investors. However, a former Committee head for the index says that there is no rush, and Tesla’s hype will keep them in the conversation for possible inclusion in the future.
Ever since David Blitzer had retired from his post at the S&P, he had been enjoying a quiet life. However, when the S&P shockingly left Tesla out of its list of newly included companies in September, Blitzer’s phone started ringing off the hook.
“I’ve gotten calls from people who know I haven’t been on the committee for a year and a half and barely ever call me about stocks, and they say, why didn’t they do it?” Blitzer said in an interview with Bloomberg. “The amount of chatter about Tesla is staggering.”
But, Blitzer isn’t convinced that Tesla’s inclusion will never happen. He just believes that the some are waiting to see if the automaker’s recent rally on Wall Street is for real, or if the stock will backtrack in the coming months.
Tesla stock has grown over five-fold so far in 2020. It has made many investors richer, and many short-sellers poorer. Still, one thing is for certain, the stock’s valuation is not certain. This is where Blitzer believes the hold up is taking place.
“There’s plenty of times when there’s big names, popular names, well-known names that don’t get added the moment they’re eligible,” Blitzer said. The S&P’s goal was never to lump together the biggest companies. It was to construct “a great measure of the market,” he said.
But more so, Blitzer does not understand why so many people are so focused on getting Tesla into the S&P. “I think he real question is, why the rush?”
TSLA stock’s skyrocket in valuation this year has surged the company to be worth nearly $400 billion. The company’s performance on Wall Street, along with other tech heavyweights like Apple and Amazon, have helped the Nasdaq 100 gain 30% in value compared to the same day in 2019. The S&P has only gained 4% so far in 2020.
Tesla (TSLA) is leaving the current S&P 500 index’s performance in the dust
Blitzer says that Tesla’s exclusion is reminiscent of Microsoft’s leaving-out from the S&P from 1986 to 1994. Although Microsoft had a market cap of over $20 billion at the beginning of 1994, the S&P committee left the tech company outside of the index.
Blitzer says that he and his committee were given grief for the decision, but they decided to do it because Microsoft had owned more than half of its outstanding shares, and at least 50% must be floating for public investors to purchase.
“After the fact — they sold off some stock, we put in the index, everybody figured they’d forget — we still got complaints. So there have been other big ones, but I guess some of us learned to shrug and say, ‘we’ll wait ‘til next month,’” Blitzer said.
The Microsoft ordeal taught Blitzer that patience is the way to handle the inclusion of some companies where their future is uncertain. While Tesla’s run in 2020 is impressive, he states that there just needs to be more time to figure out if the run is for real.
Disclaimer: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
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