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Tesla shares hit three-month high as Wall St firm ups Model 3 delivery estimates

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are approaching a 3-month high amidst new, optimistic expectations from a Wall Street firm about the Model 3’s delivery figures for Q2 2018. After Tuesday’s opening bell, Tesla stock was trading up $2.52% at $340.18 per share, the first time the company’s shares have hit the ~$340 range since March 13, 2018. 

According to KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson in a note to clients Monday, Tesla could positively surprise by delivering as much as 30,000 Model 3 for the second quarter. The Keybanc analyst further noted that the firm’s updated delivery estimates come from checks with Tesla’s sales centers.

“Our checks with sales centers indicate Model 3 deliveries are tracking ~50% higher than our prior estimates for the quarter, prompting us to raise our estimates. While the longer-term debate on TSLA remains more balanced … we maintain that evidence supporting the bear case is not likely to emerge in the near term, in our view,” the KeyBanc analyst wrote.

Tesla’s stock has seen an impressive recovery since the company held its 2018 Annual Shareholder Meeting, where CEO Elon Musk expressed an optimistic outlook about the production figures for the Model 3 and the ongoing expansion of Tesla’s energy business. Yesterday, Tesla’s momentum proved consistent, with shares rising an additional 4.55% to end the day’s trading at $332.10 per share amid CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter update about the first Full Self-Driving features for Tesla’s Hardware 2.0 fleet being released sometime in August as part of Software Version 9.

In his note, Erickson stated that his conversations with Tesla sales representatives in 20 stores revealed that delivery figures for Q2 2018 are pointing to numbers that are higher than his initial estimates, which stood at 20,000 Model 3 for the second quarter. Erickson also noted that he had increased Tesla’s full-year Model 3 delivery estimate from 98,182 to 118,182.

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“We believe weekly run-rate volumes have moved from the high teens per store per week to the low 30s since our last checks in mid-April,” he wrote.

KeyBanc Capital Markets’ optimistic outlook on Tesla’s Model 3 performance this quarter comes as the latest vote of confidence for the Elon Musk-led company. Just yesterday, analysts from Berenberg raised its price target for Tesla to $500 per share, citing Tesla’s technological advantage over its competitors and a possible 25% gross margin for the Model 3.

After Tesla’s now-infamous Q1 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk predicted that the “short burn of the century” would be happening as the company starts achieving profitability. Last week alone, Tesla shorts lost $1.1 billion in mark-to-market losses on a single day as the company’s shares rose almost 9.7%. According to S3 Partners’ analyst S3 Partners’ Ihor DusaniwskyIhor Dusaniwsky, Tesla short-sellers are currently sitting on nearly $5 billion in mark-to-market losses since 2016, and this number could grow materially if the Elon Musk-led company can hold on to its current momentum.

According to a report from The Street, Tesla stock has already broken through the $310 resistance level, opening the door to more upside, and a test of the intermediate-term downtrend that identifies the top of Tesla’s correction up at $340 per share. If Tesla breaches the $340 mark, bulls can expect the ongoing uptrend to accelerate even more.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up $2.52% at $340.18 per share on Tuesday’s intraday.

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Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours. 

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk’s new $29B Tesla stock award gets strange synopsis from governance firm

Did CGI not realize that Tesla Shareholders supported Musk being paid not once, but twice?

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elon musk speaking
Credit: TED

Elon Musk was recently awarded around $29 billion in Tesla stock as the company’s Board of Directors is attempting to get its CEO paid after his original pay package was denied twice by the Delaware Chancery Court.

But a new and strange synopsis from the Corporate Governance Institute (CGI) says the award is potentially a strength move to “endorse the will of a powerful CEO.” The problem is, in the same sentence, the firm said the new award brings up a “question of whether the board exists to steward a company in the interests of all stakeholders.”

The problem with their new analysis of Musk’s pay package is that shareholders voted twice on Musk’s original pay package of $56 billion. They voted to give Musk that sum on two separate occasions.

Musk’s original $56 billion pay package was approved by shareholders twice; once in 2018 and once again last year. Last year’s vote was in response to Delaware Chancery Court Kathaleen McCormick’s decision to revoke the “unfathomable sum” from Musk.

Shareholders still showed support for Musk getting paid. Tesla said in its new award to the CEO that this is a way to give him compensation for the first time in seven years.

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CGI said in its note (via TipRanks):

“When a board builds its strategy around a single individual, it creates a concentration risk, not just operationally, but culturally and ethically. If that individual becomes a source of volatility, the company becomes fragile by design.”

What’s strange with this type of narrative is the fact that Tesla’s valuation has skyrocketed with Musk at the helm. Go back to 2020, and the stock is up over 200 percent. Since Musk’s $56 billion pay package was introduced in 2018, shares are up well over 1,000 percent.

Tesla engineer explains why Elon Musk deserves new pay package

Musk’s 2018 pay package was also not awarded to him without performance-based incentives. He was required to reach certain growth goals, all of which were accomplished through the launch of new vehicles and the advancements of its driver-assistance suites, like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.

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It is tough to agree with CGI’s perception of Musk’s new pay plan, especially as it is much less than what shareholders voted on twice. Musk deserves to be paid for his contributions to Tesla.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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