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Waymo kicks off initial tests in Japan with launch event
Waymo launches early tests in Japan, as Tesla and others look to roll out their own commercial robotaxi services.
Commercial robotaxi company Waymo held a launch event in Japan last week, as the company prepares to enter early manual testing on its first international roads.
After Waymo shared plans to start testing vehicles in Japan in December, the Google-owned firm detailed the launch event in a press release on Monday. The event featured officials from project partners GO, a taxi platform, and Nihon Kotsu, the largest taxi company in Tokyo, along with featuring one of the company’s camera-, lidar-, and radar-outfitted Jaguar I-Pace units, expected to begin manual testing around Tokyo in the weeks to come.
Ichiro Kawanabe, Board Director at Nihon Kotsu and Chairman at both GO and the Japan Taxi Association, said that Waymo’s U.S. operations “demonstrated significant safety benefits,” along with thanking the company for hosting the event at the newly developed Takanawa Gateway City complex.
“I took my first ride with Waymo in Phoenix a year and a half ago and was amazed that there was really no one in the driver’s seat,” the chairman said. “That was the moment I was convinced that autonomous driving technology could absolutely benefit Japan. It will help ensure mobility service in the future of Japan, with the growing aging population and labor shortage.”
Credit: Waymo
Credit: Waymo
This spring, Nihon Kotsu taxi operators will start driving Waymo vehicles across several Tokyo wards this spring, including Chiyoda, Chūō, Kōtō, Minato, Shibuya, Shinagawa, and Shinjuku. The tests will utilize 3D maps of the city, along with utilizing experienced drivers to generate data about traffic laws, patterns, and other road systems ahead of fully autonomous operation.
“After months of strong collaboration with Nihon Kotsu and GO, Waymo has reached a historic milestone— our first venture on international public roads,” said Nicole Gavel, Waymo Senior Director and Head of Business Development and Strategic Partnerships.
“Our partnership demonstrates how Waymo’s 15 years of operational expertise can adapt to new environments through strategic initiatives with industry leaders,” Gavel adds. “In Tokyo, we are abiding by the same steadfast principles that guide us in the U.S. — commitment to safety, dedication to earning trust in communities where we operate, and collaboration with local officials and community groups here in Tokyo.”
The news comes as Tesla, Amazon-owned firm Zoox, and still others are racing to enter the commercial robotaxi business throughout this year. It also comes amidst widespread speculation and debate about the emerging market, and as Tesla and Waymo both aim to begin operations internationally.
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Tesla’s FSD in China, Mexico, commercial robotaxis still incoming
Waymo is already operating paid autonomous ride-hailing services around the U.S., and it said in December that it was giving more than 200,000 autonomous rides per week.
The company currently offers Waymo services in San Francisco and Los Angeles, California, Phoenix, Arizona, and, through a partnership with Uber, in Austin, Texas, where Tesla has a Gigafactory and plans to launch initial robotaxi services. The Alphabet-owned company is also aiming to launch services in Atlanta, Georgia and Miami, Florida this year, alongside its early tests in Tokyo.
Although Tesla doesn’t currently operate driverless ride-hailing in any capacity, individual owners in North America can purchase or subscribe to its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, on which the company’s forthcoming robotaxi platform will be based. In October, the company unveiled the two-seat Cybercab vehicle, which has no steering wheel or pedals and will be used for the upcoming commercial robotaxi system.
Additionally, the company is aiming to launch its first unsupervised rides commercially in Austin in June, and it recently debuted Supervised FSD in China and Mexico, marking the company’s first international markets.
🎥: Our FULL first ride in the @Tesla Cybercab pic.twitter.com/6gR7OgKRCz
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 11, 2024
Waymo vs. Tesla vs. the competition
While Tesla hasn’t quite gotten a commercial robotaxi service to market yet, Waymo, Amazon-owned company Zoox, and still many others have begun their own paid ride-hailing services or early tests. Meanwhile, Tesla’s approach to the technology is vastly different than that of Waymo and others, utilizing a camera-only, AI-trained neural network system, rather than 3D geomapping.
For one, the company can generate a larger pool of training data from real-time driving behavior of its individual owners, for instance as compared to Waymo’s use of a more-limited fleet of taxi drivers. Many argue that this, along with the cost-effectiveness of producing a system that’s built into every vehicle and utilizes only cameras, make the system more scalable than those of Waymo and others.
Still, some support the use of more than just camera systems and building in sensor redundancy as a way to maximize safety, especially as the technologies are still fairly new. Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik, who was a part of the company until 2021, criticized the FSD system in December for not including enough safety measures to support a realistic commercial robotaxi business, and he went on to call Tesla “a car company with a driver-assist system.”
“If a company were serious about building a safe and accessible robotaxi business, it would look nothing like what was shown,” Krafcik said during an interview. “The cost of a robust sensor set, including lidar, is trivial on a per-mile basis. Even more so for mapping. And the safety benefits measured in human harm reduction are real and verifiable.”
Waymo valued at over $45 billion following latest financing round: report
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
