Investor's Corner
Tesla beats Wall St. estimates: $7 billion revenue; record Model S, X orders; Model 3 production starts in July

Tesla released its fourth quarter 2016 earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, summarized in the Q4’16 Update Letter, surprising Wall Street after posting fourth quarter earnings loss of 69 cents a share, at the low end of the estimated analyst losses. Revenue was $2.28 billion versus an estimate of $2.13 billion.
The complete text of the Tesla Fourth Quarter 2016 Update letter can be seen at the end of this article. We’ve embedded a copy of the original document from Tesla.
Revenue
In the letter, Tesla announced that “2016 revenue of $7 billion, up 73% from 2015.”
This is the first time Tesla reported earnings since the company’s acquisition of SolarCity Corp. in mid-November. Tesla had done little to guide the market for how to expect results, leading some analysts to exclude the solar panel business from their estimates until greater clarity is provided. As a result, the estimates between analysts varied widely. Some were expecting the company to report a loss of as low as $0.43 per share on revenues of $2.18 billion for the December quarter. Other analysts were expecting a loss of as much as $1.19 a share. According to a consensus poll with analysts conducted by FactSet, Tesla was expected to report an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of 53 cents per share. Expectations varied greatly.
Model 3
In the letter, Tesla announced that “Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September” and reiterated that “the Model 3 and solar roof launches are on track for the second half of the year.”
The company also reported record high orders in Q4 for its Model S and X vehicles.
Elon has set a July 1 deadline for his suppliers and internal teams to be ready for production. Investors will be listening for additional information about the status of the Model 3 during the conference call scheduled for 2:30 pm PT today.
An update on the Model 3 is highly anticipated. With Elon Musk’s goal of manufacturing and selling 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3’s in the second half of 2017, and half a million cars per year by 2018, this is a major driver for the stock. Since the company ended 2016 producing 83,922 cars, or roughly 230 cars per day, ramping up production sixfold will require new investments in equipment, people and facilities.
Guidance for 2017
In the letter, Tesla states that “We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017, representing vehicle delivery growth of 61% to 71% compared with the same period last year. In addition, both GAAP and non-GAAP automotive gross margin should recover in Q1 to Q3 2016 levels and then continue to expand in Q2 2017.”
Elon Musk has a history of setting ambitious targets and missing deadlines. Jeffrey Osborn, an analyst for Cowen and Co., wondered if the influence of Chief Financial Officer Jason Wheeler, after about 18 months into his job since coming from Alphabet Inc., would have been seen in setting more conservative 2017’s targets.
SolarCity
In the letter, Tesla announced that “SolarCity and Grohmann integrations underway.”
Elon Musk also faces the challenge of integrating SolarCity into Tesla. He dropped the word “Motors” from the company’s name earlier this month as he looks to make a fully integrated company that makes solar powers to generate energy, large batteries for storing that power at home and offices and electric cars that can run on it. Since the deal closed on Nov. 21, Tesla shares have risen almost 50%.
The quarter’s results include just over a month of the SolarCity merger. It may be difficult to determine how much it impacted Tesla’s numbers unless management provides specific information on SolarCity. March quarter’s guidance will be even more important than usual since it will include a full quarter of SolarCity’s business. Watch for some of these issues to be discussed in the Conference Call Q&A.
Cash
In the letter, Tesla announced that “Q3 to Q4 cash increased by over $300 million to $3.4 billion. In Q4, we increased cash by $309 million.”
One of the big issues against the SolarCity deal was the effect it would have on Tesla’s cash pile just as it prepares to introduce the Model 3. Mr. Musk has said he has enough money, though signaled he might raise additional cash through the capital or debt markets. Tesla’s guidance in October suggested it planned to spend about $1 billion on capital expenditures in the fourth quarter. Tesla finished September with $3.1 billion in cash.
TSLA Stock
Tesla shares have been on a tear, up 53%to $277.39 since December 2 when they closed at $181.47. From a technical perspective the shares had created a double bottom when combined with the low from November 14 of $181.45. The 53% increase has led to the stock being overbought but the shares have been overbought since the beginning of the year when they were trading at $214. The shares are also 18% above their 50 day moving average and 29% above the 200 day moving average. All of these are bullish indicators, closely followed by technical investors and traders.
The previous time the shares were this far above its moving averages was back in 2014. While it may only be short-term the stock is more likely to move down vs. up after today’s earnings announcement.
Today’s session ended up closing 1.4% lower, with some traders not wanting to risk the huge gains over a Quarterly report. Looking at the extended trading action after the close, the initial reaction to the numbers for Q4 2016 is hugely positive, with the stock raising to $280 just 1 minute after the close and continuing into the session. Expect a positive opening on Thursday.
[pdf-embedder url=”http://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/TSLA_Update_Letter_2016-4Q.pdf”]
Investor's Corner
Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.
Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive
However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.
TD Cowen
TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.
Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.
Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth
Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.
Stifel
Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.
The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.
It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.
Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.
UBS
While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.
UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.
It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.
In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.
Investor's Corner
Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating for the electric vehicle maker.

Investment firm Stifel has raised its price target for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares to $483 from $440 over increased confidence in the company’s self-driving and Robotaxi programs. The new price target suggests an 11.5% upside from Tesla’s closing price on Tuesday.
Stifel also maintained a “Buy” rating despite acknowledging that Tesla’s timeline for fully unsupervised driving may be ambitious.
Building confidence
In a note to clients, Stifel stated that it believes “Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD,” as noted in a report from Investing.com. The firm expects unsupervised FSD to become available for personal use in the U.S. by the end of 2025, with a wider ride-hailing rollout potentially covering half of the U.S. population by year-end.
Stifel also noted that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could expand from “tiny to gigantic” within a short time frame, possibly making a material financial impact to the company by late 2026. The firm views Tesla’s vision-based approach to autonomy as central to this long-term growth, suggesting that continued advancements could unlock new revenue streams across both consumer and mobility sectors.
Tesla’s FSD goals still ambitious
While Stifel’s tone remains optimistic, the firm’s analysts acknowledged that Tesla’s aggressive autonomy timeline may face execution challenges. The note described the 2025 unsupervised FSD target as “a stretch,” though still achievable in the medium term.
“We believe Tesla is making progress with modest advancements in its Robotaxi network and FSD. The company has high expectations for its camera-based approach including; 1) Unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use in the United States by year-end 2025, which appears to be a stretch but seems more likely in the medium term; 2) that it will ‘probably have ride hailing in probably half of the populations of the U.S. by the end of the year’,” the firm noted.
Investor's Corner
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirms bullish view on Tesla after record Q3 deliveries
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target.

Cantor Fitzgerald is maintaining its bullish outlook on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) following the company’s record-breaking third quarter of 2025.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target, citing strong delivery results driven by a rush of consumer purchases ahead of the end of the federal tax credit on September 30.
On Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025
During the third quarter of 2025, Tesla delivered a total of 497,099 vehicles, significantly beating analyst expectations of 443,079 vehicles. As per Cantor Fitzgerald, this was likely affected by customers rushing at the end of Q3 to purchase an EV due to the end of the federal tax credit, as noted in an Investing.com report.
“On 10/2, TSLA pre-announced that it delivered 497,099 vehicles in 3Q25 (its highest quarterly delivery in company history), significantly above Company consensus of 443,079, and above 384,122 in 2Q25. This was due primarily to a ‘push forward effect’ from consumers who rushed to purchase or lease EVs ahead of the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring on 9/30,” the firm wrote in its note.
A bright spot in Tesla Energy
Cantor Fitzgerald also highlighted that while Tesla’s full-year production and deliveries would likely fall short of 2024’s 1.8 million total, Tesla’s energy storage business remains a bright spot in the company’s results.
“Tesla also announced that it had deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products in 3Q25, its highest in company history vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of 11.5/10.9 GWh (and vs. ~6.9 GWh in 3Q24). Tesla’s Energy Storage has now deployed more products YTD than all of last year, which is encouraging. We expect Energy Storage revenue to surpass $12B this year, and to account for ~15% of total revenue,” the firm stated.
Tesla’s strong Q3 results have helped lift its market capitalization to $1.47 trillion as of writing. The company also teased a new product reveal on X set for October 7, which the firm stated could serve as another near-term catalyst.
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