SpaceX
3D-printed Mars habitat could be a perfect fit for early SpaceX Starship colonies
Space architecture startup AI SpaceFactory achieved second place in the latest phase of a NASA-led competition, pitting several groups against each other in pursuit of designing a 3D-printed Mars habitat and physically demonstrating some of the technologies needed to build them.
With a focus on ease of scalable 3D-printing and inhabitants’ quality of life, as well as the use of modular imported goods like windows and airlocks, MARSHA lends itself impeccably well to SpaceX’s goal of developing a sustainable human presence on Mars as quickly, safely, and affordably as possible with the support of its Starship/Super Heavy launch vehicle.
Aside from developing a custom 3D-printing material utilizing in-situ Martian resources and demonstrating the technology by successfully printing a 1200 gallon (4500 L) water tank, SpaceFactory’s habitat design – known as MARSHA – combines a unique level of pragmatism, functionality, and aesthetic elegance. After analyzing different structural options, the SpaceFactory team settled on a cocoon-like cylinder, taking advantage of the many benefits of the Martian environment while controlling for its several downsides. Most notably, Martian gravity is roughly 38% of Earth’s, while the small planet’s atmosphere is typically 80-150 times less dense at surface-level. As a consequence, the forces exerted by Martian winds are minuscule and can effectively be ignored, while the low gravity dramatically minimizes architectural challenges that arise from Earthbound structures having to battle their own weight.
Equally important, all Martian habitats will need to be pressurized to a level comfortable for long-term colonists, requiring that they be able to survive significant internal pressurization. The Martian radiation environment is also significantly less forgiving than Earth, although the dangers of Martian radiation are dramatically overblown. The material of choice SpaceFactory designed to 3D-print its MARSHA habitat – a biorenewable plastic (PLA) reinforced with locally-sourced basalt fiber – also accounts for many of Mars’ shortcomings, as plastics happen to be some of the best materials for radiation shielding per unit of mass. Featuring a duo of PLA shells placing a meter or more of plastic between living areas, MARSHA would permit relatively acceptable radiation levels while avoiding the downsides of locating habitats underground or burying them under several meters of Martian regolith.
-
- An overview of a potential Mars base built around the MARSHA habitat design. (AI SpaceFactory & PLOMP)
-
- A glimpse into one floor of MARSHA’s Mars habitat interior. (AI SpaceFactory & PLOMP)
-
- A number of BFR (2018) spaceships seen landed at a future Mars base. (SpaceX)
Thanks to its cylindrical design and SpaceFactory’s attention to quality of life for astronauts residing within it, MARSHA is also exceptionally beautiful and more than a little alluring even from the perspective of Earthly habitation. MARSHA’s thoughtful design and polished aesthetic would likely mesh well with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s own established preferences, known (sometimes infamously so) for a predilection towards building things that value form at least as much as function. Due to the relatively compact nature of the hardware needed (in theory) to begin building MARSHA and the apparent potential for autonomous construction, SpaceFactory’s design also aligns with a number of critical aspects of SpaceX’s outlined Mars colonization architecture.
-
-
- AI SpaceFactory’s alluring vision of one route to humans living on Mars.
-
- A cutaway view of MARSHA at Martian dusk. (AI SpaceFactory)
-
- An outline of the main features of SpaceX’s “Mars Architecture”, present by Paul Wooster in August 2018. (SpaceX)
-
- An overview of an early SpaceX Mars colony, circa 2017. (SpaceX)
Up next for NASA’s 3D-printed habitat competition is “Phase 3”, effectively a grand finale: up to eight finalists are expected to compete to 3D-print a 1/3rd scale model of their Mars habitat design as early as May 2019. While not confirmed, it’s likely that SpaceFactory will be among those finalists, potentially helping to offer an early glimpse at what rapidly-printed Mars habitats might look like in real life. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has also indicated that he would provide a more substantial update on the status of BFR (Starship/Super Heavy) and SpaceX’s Mars architecture soon after the company’s first Starship prototype – unofficially known as Starhopper – begins test flights. That milestone is like no fewer than 1-2 months away.
Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes!
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
-
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
-
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
-
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
-
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
