Connect with us

Investor's Corner

Why a Tesla Model Y update during the Q4 earnings call will set TSLA on fire

Tesla Model Y (Source: Teslarati)

Published

on

Tesla is set to report its Q4 2019 earnings after the bell rings to close trading on Wednesday and if the electric car manufacturer announces during the call that Model Y delivery will begin soon, expect TSLA stock to skyrocket.

A stellar Q3 2019 performance helped Tesla stock gain momentum and set up Elon Musk’s electric car brand for its final push in the last few months of 2019. Analysts are optimistic following its historic fourth quarter, when it was able to deliver 112,000 vehicles and produce more than 104,000 units. This helped TSLA rise to a $100 billion valuation, bumping German auto giant Volkswagen on the second spot in the list of the most valuable carmakers in the globe.


UPDATED: Tesla $TSLA shares soar following confirmation of Model Y first deliveries and breakout Q4 2019 results


As for the much-awaited all-electric crossover, the production schedule of the Tesla Model Y has moved up from Fall 2020 to Summer 2020 but all signs hint that it may even come sooner. From several sightings of production-ready Model Y units, the publication of its  CARB certification, VINs registration with the NHTSA, and phone calls to future Model Y owners, rumors that the first deliveries of the Model Y will begin in February are highly-likely true.

If the Tesla Model Y premium electric crossover indeed hits the road next month, expect movement in the price of TSLA stock. And the only direction to look is up.

Advertisement

Early delivery of Model Y should scare competitors 

Tesla has struggled before in keeping its promises of delivering vehicles to customers on time. Skeptics had a point because every carmaker must do its best to meet the demand and keep their customers happy. Elon Musk and his team fine-tuned kinks in production and proved to critics that they’re taking steps in the right direction as Tesla delivered 367,000 vehicles in 2019 — that’s a 50% jump from its numbers in 2018.

Deliveries of vehicles is an accurate barometer of how Tesla is starting to walk the walk, a clear sign that there’s an improvement in the company’s fundamentals as a whole. Initial production of the vehicle is being handled by Tesla’s Fremont plant in California but the company has also started its Model Y program in China. Giga Berlin will contribute to its production as soon as July 2021, with the facility set to start its operations with the production of the all-electric crossover as well.

(Credit: Tesla Owners Silicon Valley/Twitter)

The early delivery of the Model Y to consumers also means that Tesla has underpromised and over-delivered. This is a screaming signal that competitors should worry cause whatever “advanced manufacturing technologies” Elon Musk mentioned when he recently spoke about the Model Y could work wonders for the carmaker. These innovations may be related to a casting machine that can practically cast most of the vehicle’s body in one piece, rigid wiring system, and other technologies that the market will learn about soon.

“Model Y will also have some advanced manufacturing technology that we will reveal in the future. I think it will be exciting to show the kind of manufacturing technology associated with the Model Y and it will be exciting to learn about these technologies,” Musk said.

If these manufacturing technologies take Tesla a step closer to perfecting its production line design, then it can hit its production goals in Fremont, Shanghai, and Berlin in the near future. Of course, this efficiency in Model Y production will have a chain effect across its factories and product lines. Better production means a smaller gap between supply and demand. With better efficiency, trust in the brand can soar and sales go boom.

Tesla Model Y will be king of SUV/Crossover Segment

The Tesla Model Y electric crossover that has a range of 300 miles and an impressive 0 to 60 mph time of 3.5 seconds for its quickest variant is positioned perfectly.

Advertisement

Demand for sedans in the United States has been going down fast in favor of more spacious and more functional rides such as SUVs and crossovers. There were 17 million vehicles sold in the US in 2019 and only 28% of that are cars.

Focusing on the crossover segment, the Tesla Model Y has some formidable competition in the form of the BMW X3, Audi Q5, Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE, and the more affordable Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V.

In terms of price and size, the Model Y is comparable to the rest of the pack but the Model Y will have an option to accommodate seven passengers that others cannot offer. And of course, the other electric crossovers are all from internal combustion engine producers and they’re not doing very well. The Audi e-tron only sold 5,369 units in the US while the I-PACE sold 2,594 units. The picture is similar for other mid-sized SUVs.

With the preference of consumers leaning towards roomier vehicles, the Model Y will further prove the credibility and popularity of Tesla brand.

Tesla Model Y Performance spotted in Washington State (Source: Daily Night Society | YouTube)

Model Y can help push Tesla to sustained profitability

During the Q3 earnings call, Musk was quoted about his expectations of the Model Y.

“I’ve actually recently driven the Model Y release candidate, and I think it’s going to be an amazing product and be very well received. I think it’s quite likely to — this is just my opinion, but I think it will outsell S, X, and 3, combined,” Musk said.

Advertisement

The Model Y is the ultimate bad news for critics and competitors. If Tesla found a way to accelerate production and start delivering its all-electric crossover in February, that just means Model Y sales would be added to the books and help raise the company’s earnings in 2020.

While the Model 3 is the first mass-produced vehicle of Tesla, the Model Y will be the first affordable electric SUV that can help push it to sustained profitability.  The electric crossover that starts at $39,000 shares 75% of its DNA with its sedan sibling but even with a higher price tag, the innovations in production that Elon Musk mentioned will push the cost down.

Tesla will not only have a good profit margin for the Model Y in the United States, but there’s also a good chance that its margins will even be bigger in China where the locally-made Model 3 has received a warm reception.

The Palo Alto, California-based company can push the margins for its electric crossover further by doing what it plans to do with the Made-in-China Model 3. Localization of components will be key as this will allow Tesla to push the vehicle’s price down and practically create demand. That will work well, according to analysts from Chuancai Securities, an equity firm in China.

The Tesla Model Y will be a game-changer in the industry. If Model 3 was the straight punch to its competitors, the Model Y will be the power uppercut punch that will knock out its rivals.

Advertisement

A curious soul who keeps wondering how Elon Musk, Tesla, electric cars, and clean energy technologies will shape the future, or do we really need to escape to Mars.

Advertisement
Comments

Investor's Corner

Shareholder group urges Nasdaq probe into Elon Musk’s Tesla 2025 CEO Interim Award

The SOC Investment Group represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members, many of whom hold shares in TSLA.

Published

on

Credit: xAI/X

An investment group is urging Nasdaq to investigate Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over its recent $29 billion equity award for CEO Elon Musk. 

The SOC Investment Group, which represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members—many of whom hold shares in TSLA—sent a letter to the exchange citing “serious concerns” that the package sidestepped shareholder approval and violated compensation rules.

Concerns over Tesla’s 2025 CEO Interim Award

In its August 19 letter to Nasdaq enforcement chief Erik Wittman, SOC alleged that Tesla’s board improperly granted Musk a “2025 CEO Interim Award” under the company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. That plan, the group noted, explicitly excluded Musk when it was approved by shareholders. SOC argued that the new equity grant effectively expanded the plan to cover Musk, a material change that should have required a shareholder vote under Nasdaq rules.

The $29 billion package was designed to replace Musk’s overturned $56 billion award from 2018, which the Delaware Chancery Court struck down, prompting Tesla to file an appeal to the Delaware Supreme Court. The interim award contains restrictions: Musk must remain in a leadership role until August 2027, and vested shares cannot be sold until 2030, as per a Yahoo Finance report.

Even so, critics such as SOC have argued that the plan does not have of performance targets, calling it a “fog-the-mirror” award. This means that “If you’re around and have enough breath left in you to fog the mirror, you get them,” stated Brian Dunn, the director of the Institute for Comprehension Studies at Cornell University.

Advertisement

SOC’s Tesla concerns beyond Elon Musk

SOC’s concerns extend beyond the mechanics of Musk’s pay. The group has long questioned the independence of Tesla’s board, opposing the reelection of directors such as Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. It has also urged regulators to review Tesla’s governance practices, including past proposals to shrink the board. 

SOC has also joined initiatives calling for Tesla to adopt comprehensive labor rights policies, including noninterference with worker organizing and compliance with global labor standards. The investment group has also been involved in webinars and resolutions highlighting the risks related to Tesla’s approach to unions, as well as labor issues across several countries.

Tesla has not yet publicly responded to SOC’s latest letter, nor to requests for comment.

The SOC’s letter can be viewed below.

Nasdaq+Letter Tsla Socig Final by Simon Alvarez

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

Published

on

(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

Continue Reading

Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

Published

on

tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

Continue Reading

Trending