New Street Research managing partner Pierre Ferragu recently explained why Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) EV credits is only icing on the cake for the electric car maker. Tesla reported a revenue of $8.771 billion with a net income of $331 million in Q3, with regulatory credits accounting for $397 million of the EV maker’s earnings.
When asked about how regulatory credits have boosted Tesla’s numbers this year, Ferragu told Fox Business that the EV credits aren’t a big part of the electric car maker’s future valuation at all. This is partly due to regulatory credits being short-term, and Tesla’s vehicle margins.
“Why are you looking at profits of this year? You know Tesla is trading on maybe, like over 100x that, more than 100x that, so that’s not reason to drive our valuation of TSLA. What really matters is how much profit Tesla makes in 2025, in 2030. We’ve had a string of conversations about that,” said Ferragu.
He explained his stance further, saying: “So, to give you a sense of that, in 2025, I have Tesla making $16 of earnings per share just out of the auto business. And in that, there’s absolutely no credit revenues. We don’t have credit revenues in our model. Credit revenues are very short-term, have a very short duration, so you arrive at about $1.5 billion in pure profit this year. So that’s like free money Tesla gets and Tesla will be able to reinvest in their business.”
A big portion of Tesla’s EV credits come from its Fiat pooling deal which was estimated to be worth $1.8 billion through 2023 by Baird analyst Ben Kallo. Recently, Honda joined Tesla’s pooling deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), probably increasing TSLA’s profitability with EV credits.
Many TSLA bulls, specifically retail investors who have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, agree with Ferragu’s assessment of Tesla’s use of EV credits. As TSLA Bull @stevenmarkryan explained, EV credits are more of a byproduct of Tesla doing what it is already doing. During his interview with Fox Business, Ferragu strived to explain Tesla’s profitability without EV credits on the table.
“But that money is going away relatively rapidly in the next three or four years. And that’s not part of the overall picture. What really matters today is to look at the gross margins of Tesla excluding the regulatory credits. And excluding credits, Tesla’s gross margins is about 20%, it’s a leading gross margin for a car manufacturer. And it continues to expand as the Model Y is a higher margin, the Model Y is included in the mix. That’s what really matters, and credits have nothing to blame there,” Ferragu said.
Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target for TSLA to $540. “Mine is a tad above that. It’s $578. They’re getting closer to the truth,” Ferragu commented during his interview.
In October, Ferragu released a New Street Research analysis on Tesla and set his $578 TSLA price target for the company. The analysis hinted at a decade of hyper-growth for Tesla. In it, Ferragu and his fellow analysts estimated that Tesla had an addressable market of 20 million units. The S3XY lineup directly addressed 8 million units with an additional “trading up” opportunity of 12 million units. The Cybertruck added an extra 3 million units to the equation.
Recently, Tesla joined the Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) along with 28 other companies, like Rivian, Duke Energy, Seimens, and Lucid Motors. ZETA wants to reach 100% EV adoption by 2030 in the United States. In Europe, the EU Commission plans to enforce stricter emission standards that could kill the combustion engine by 2025. Other countries seem be preparing for an EV-lead auto industry as well, which could bring about Tesla’s hyper-growth in the next decade.
Investor's Corner
Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote
Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.
Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package.
Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights
In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI. As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.
“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.
A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award
In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV.
Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event.
Elon Musk
Tesla Cybercab steering wheel dilemma gets final answer from Elon Musk
Tesla Cybercab is the company’s autonomy-geared automobile that will eventually begin the phase-out of human drivers. In recent days, however, there has been speculation regarding the vehicle’s equipment and whether it would be fitted with a typical steering wheel and pedals.
CEO Elon Musk put an end to this discussion, at least for now, as he maintains the vehicle will not have anything that would remotely resemble any possibility of any sort of manual operation.
The problem is, there is a flaw in his logic, and his justification for the reasoning is an opinion. But Musk has a special ability; he has the final say on what goes on at Tesla, and if he does or doesn’t want manual controls in the new vehicle, he’ll get his way.
On the All In Podcast on Friday, Musk gave his final answer to whether the Cybercab would have a steering wheel or pedals by stating it would not when the production units start rolling off lines in Q2 2026.
He provided a further explanation:
“The reality is, people may think they want to drive their car, but the reality is that they don’t. How many times have you been in an Uber or Lyft and said ‘I wish I could take over for the driver, get off my phone, and drive to my destination? 0.0 times.”
🚨 Elon Musk says Tesla will NOT put a steering wheel in the Cybercab (via All In Podcast):
“The reality is, people may think they want to drive their car, but the reality is that they don’t. How many times have you been in an Uber or Lyft and said ‘I wish I could take over for… pic.twitter.com/SGu3to5anA
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 31, 2025
Although the units that have been spotted on public roads in recent days are equipped with a steering wheel and pedals, it is because Tesla is testing the vehicle in real-world situations, and manual controls are required for it.
Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time
Some Tesla fans in the community have said that the car seems more geared toward being suitable for manual operation as opposed to a fully autonomous vehicle primed for driverless ride-hailing.
Earlier this week, Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm said that if the company had to put a steering wheel or pedals into the Cybercab, it would.
News
SpaceX sets the record straight on Jim Bridenstine and Artemis 3
SpaceX argued that Bridenstine’s comments should be taken with a grain of salt as he is working as a paid lobbyist for companies that are competing for NASA contracts.
SpaceX pushed back firmly against former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine after he questioned the agency’s reliance on Starship for the Artemis 3 Moon mission.
In a detailed thread on X, SpaceX argued that Bridenstine’s comments should be taken with a grain of salt as he is working as a paid lobbyist for companies that are competing for NASA contracts.
Bridenstine’s comments on Starship and Artemis 3
Bridenstine and fellow former NASA chief Charlie Bolden noted during a recent symposium that NASA’s current Artemis strategy is approaching zero chance of beating China to the Moon. Bridenstine expressed skepticism that NASA’s current architecture, which is expected to use Starship to transport astronauts to and from the lunar surface, could succeed in time.
“Starship is a tremendously important vehicle for the future,” Bridenstine said, as per Space News. “It’s going to deliver large mass to low Earth orbit for a long time, and it’s going to drive down costs and increase access. But if you need a moon lander, it’s going to take time.”
SpaceX responds to the former NASA administrator’s comments
In a series of posts on X, SpaceX noted that while the company is very thankful to the former NASA administrator for helping create the Artemis Program, his comments about Starship might not necessarily be coming from a place of objectivity.
SpaceX’s comments are as follows: “Like many Americans, we are thankful for Mr. Bridenstine’s service leading NASA at one point. He deserves credit for spearheading the creation of the Artemis Program. After departing NASA, he created a lobbying firm called the Artemis Group, representing a host of aerospace companies vying for NASA business.
“Mr. Bridenstine’s current campaign against Starship is either misguided or intentionally misleading. SpaceX was selected to design and develop a Human Landing System for Artemis along with Blue Origin and Dynetics during Mr. Bridenstine’s tenure as NASA Administrator.
“Starship was then selected by NASA for the Artemis III mission through fair and open competition after being identified as the best and lowest risk technical option – and the lowest price by a wide margin – by the civil servant team appointed to lead the agency’s exploration mission by Mr. Bridenstine himself.
“The decision to select Starship was confirmed repeatedly following protest and litigation from the companies not selected which delayed the start of work on the contract for many months. Mr. Bridenstine’s recent musings promoting a new landing system – going so far as to invoke the Defense Production Act – are being misreported as though they were the unbiased thoughts of a former NASA Administrator. They are not.
“To be clear, he is a paid lobbyist. He is representing his clients’ interests, and his comments should be seen for what they are – a paid lobbyist’s effort to secure billions more in government funding for his clients who are already years late and billions of dollars overbudget,” SpaceX wrote.
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