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SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch slips to March 2022 in NASA document
A NASA document discussing a group’s plans to document SpaceX’s first orbital-velocity Starship reentry appears to suggest that the next-generation rocket’s orbital launch debut has slipped several months into 2022.
In March 2021, CEO Elon Musk confirmed a report that SpaceX was working towards a target of July 2021 for Starship’s first orbital launch attempt. At the time, it seemed undeniably ambitious but far from impossible. Less than half a year prior, SpaceX had kicked off a series of suborbital Starship test flights to altitudes of 10-12.5 km (6.2-8 mi). Beginning in December 2020, SN8 – effectively the first structurally complete Starship prototype – nearly stuck a landing on its first try, only narrowly falling short due to an engine and pressurization issue.
Less than two months later, SpaceX completed and launched Starship SN9 – again with a nearly flawless six-minute flight capped off with an unsuccessful landing attempt. Starship SN10 followed less than a month later and became the first prototype to land in one piece – albeit only for a few minutes. It was two weeks after that near-success – SpaceX’s third launch in as many months – that Musk revealed a goal of July 2021 for Starship’s first orbital launch. At that point in time, it appeared all but inevitable that SpaceX would be technically ready for an orbital launch before the end of the year.
Two weeks after Musk’s comments and less than four weeks after SN10’s near-miss, Starship SN11 gave one of the worst performances yet, invisibly exploding inside a fogbank well above the ground. However, further stoking the fires of optimism, Starship SN15 debuted a number of upgrades and became the first prototype to successfully launch, land, and survive a ~10km test flight in early May. Put simply, SpaceX built five Starship prototypes practically from scratch in roughly eight months and then completed five test flights in less than five months – all of which were largely successful.
SpaceX considered reusing Starship SN15 or launching SN16 to gain more landing experience but ultimately decided to mothball the prototypes to avoid disrupting orbital launch site construction. Just three months after SN15’s successful landing, SpaceX rolled the first orbital-class Starship and Super Heavy to the orbital launch site and briefly stacked the pair (Ship 20 and Booster 4) to their full height, forming the tallest rocket ever assembled. Although largely a photo opportunity, SpaceX still installed a full 29 Raptors on Super Heavy B4 and six Raptors on Starship S20, further raising confidence that the company’s engine production was already up to the task of supplying the nearly three-dozen needed for a single orbital test flight.
However, for reasons that are less than clear, that August 6th full-stack milestone is about where SpaceX’s H1 2021 momentum appeared to run into a brick wall. Perhaps due to a desire to focus on orbital launch site construction even at the cost of avoiding road closures or testing that would require a clear pad, Starship S20 sat on a stand for the better part of two months before completing even a minor test – by far the longest any Starship prototype has waited.
Seemingly in the midst of its third round of Raptor engine removal, Super Heavy B4 has yet to attempt a single test and it’s unclear how close to ready the orbital pad is to support booster proof and static fire tests. Neither ship nor booster has attempted to static fire its Raptor engines, though S20 could potentially be ready for its first test as early as Monday, October 18th.
Combined with recent developments in the FAA’s Boca Chica environmental review process, the odds of SpaceX attempting the first orbital Starship launch by the end of 2021 have rapidly dropped from decent to near-zero. From a technical perspective, it seems likely that SpaceX could still be ready for an orbital launch attempt just a few months from now. From a regulatory perspective, though, it would be practically unprecedented for the FAA to complete a favorable environmental review and approve even a one-off orbital Starship launch license in ~10 weeks. Even the apparent March 2022 target revealed in a NASA poster focused on the agency’s plans to film an orbital Starship reentry via high-altitude jet assumes that the FAA’s review and licensing process will take ~7 months from August 2021 – still extremely optimistic.
Ultimately, after two months with next to no prototype testing, it’s beginning to look like SpaceX has decided to focus on finishing Starbase’s first orbital launch site, refining vehicle designs, and building new prototypes (B5, S21, S22) rather than pushing hard for rapid B4/S20 testing and an imminent launch attempt. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that Booster 4 and Ship 20 will fly as new and improved prototypes like Super Heavy B5 and Starship S21 prepare to overtake them.
News
Tesla Semi factory receives giant production equipment
The massive machine was transported to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.
Tesla seems determined to kick off the production of the Tesla Semi sometime this year at its Nevada factory.
This was hinted at by the arrival of massive production equipment to the Semi’s manufacturing site near Giga Nevada.
New equipment
What appeared to be a massive stamping machine has been transported to the Giga Texas complex. Spotted by longtime drone operator and Tesla Semi advocate @HinrichsZane, the massive contraption is so large and heavy that a single semi truck and trailer were not enough to move it. Instead, the massive machine was shipped to the Semi factory using two diesel trucks and a triple trailer.
The machine was fully covered in the videos from Nevada, but based on its shape and size, it appears that it is a stamping press for the Class 8 all-electric truck. Tesla is a pioneer in the use of Megacasts in the automotive industry, so it makes sense for the company to use a Giga Press for the Semi’s production as well.
Ambitious goals
The Tesla Semi factory is expected to produce a whopping 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck annually when it is fully ramped. At that output, the facility would be one of the country’s highest-volume plants for semi trailers, electric or otherwise. In a video posted earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla, stated that the company is looking to achieve volume production over the coming quarters.
This should allow the Tesla Semi factory to mass produce the vehicle by 2026. Tesla CEO Elon Musk reiterated this timeframe recently, when he responded to a post on social media platform X about Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates being bearish about battery electric semi trucks. “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year,” Musk said in his post, which also included a laughing emoji.
Check out the drone operator’s recent footage of the Tesla Semi factory in the video below.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous
The CEO is not just stating that using sensors like lidar is unnecessary to achieve self-driving.
Elon Musk is taking a firmer stance in the vision vs lidar debate for autonomous driving. In his more recent comments, the CEO is not just stating that using sensors like lidar is unnecessary to achieve self-driving.
Musk is stating that using lidar actually makes self-driving cars more dangerous.
Uber CEO’s comments
During a recent interview, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi shared his thoughts on the autonomy race. As per the CEO, he is still inclined to believe that Waymo’s approach, which requires outfitting cars with equipment such as lidar and radar, is necessary to achieve superhuman levels of safety for self-driving cars.
“Solid state LiDAR is $500. Why not include lidar as well in order to achieve super human safety. All of our partners are using a combination of camera, radar and LiDAR, and I personally think that’s the right solution, but I could be proven wrong,” the Uber CEO noted.
Elon Musk’s rebuttal
In response to the Uber CEO’s comments, Elon Musk stated that lidar and radar, at least based on Tesla’s experience, actually reduce safety instead of improving it. As per the Tesla CEO, there are times when sensors such as lidar and radar disagree with cameras. This creates sensor ambiguity, which, in turn, creates more risk. Musk then noted that Tesla has seen an improvement in safety once the company focused on a vision only approach.
“Lidar and radar reduce safety due to sensor contention. If lidars/radars disagree with cameras, which one wins? This sensor ambiguity causes increased, not decreased, risk. That’s why Waymos can’t drive on highways. We turned off the radars in Teslas to increase safety. Cameras ftw,’ Musk wrote.
Musk’s comments are quite notable as Tesla was able to launch a dedicated Robotaxi pilot in Austin and the Bay Area using its vision-based autonomous systems. The same is true for FSD, which is quickly becoming notably better than humans in driving.
News
Tesla Model Y L sold out for September 2025
This was hinted at in Tesla China’s configurator for the all-electric crossover.
It appears that the Tesla Model Y L has been sold out in China for September 2025. This was hinted at in Tesla China’s configurator for the all-electric crossover.
Model Y L deliveries
Since the Model Y L’s official launch earlier this month, Tesla has been pretty consistent in the idea that the extended wheelbase variant of its best-selling vehicle will see its first deliveries sometime in September. This was quite an impressive timeframe for Tesla, considering that the Model Y L has only been launched this August.
Nevertheless, both Tesla China’s Model Y configurator and comments from company executives have noted that the vehicle will see its first customer deliveries in September. “Tesla cars are fun to drive alone, whether you have children or how many children, this car can meet all your needs. We will deliver in September and wait for you to get in the car,” Tesla China VP Grace Tao wrote on Weibo.
October 2025 deliveries
A look at Tesla China’s order page as of writing shows that the earliest deliveries for the Model Y L, if ordered today, would be October 2025 instead. This suggests that the six-seat Model Y variant has effectively been sold out for September. This bodes well for the vehicle, and it suggests that it is a variant that may be able to raise Tesla’s sales numbers in China, as well as territories where the Model Y L could be exported.
Rumors of the Model Y L’s strong sales have been abounding. After the vehicle’s launch, industry watchers estimated that Tesla China has received over 35,000 orders for the Model Y L in just one day. Later estimates suggested that the Model Y L’s orders have breached the 50,000 mark.
Tesla Semi factory receives giant production equipment
Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous
Tesla Model Y L sold out for September 2025
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