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Tesla bull ARK Invest estimates robotaxi fleet launch dates

(Credit: Tesla)

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TSLA bull ARK Invest shared predictions for the potential launch date for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. 

The global asset manager used its updated Monte Carlo model to provide a range of potential launch dates for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet. ARK Invest believes in the best-case scenario, Tesla’s robotaxi fleet will launch by Q4 2023. The worst-case scenario is that the Tesla robotaxi fleet will be launched in 2030. The long-time TSLA bull predicted that the first year of Tesla’s robotaxi commercialization would also likely happen in late 2024, depending on certain variables. 

To sum everything up, ARK Invest predicts the earliest the Tesla robotaxi fleet could launch is later this year. If the EV automaker doesn’t launch its robotaxi fleet this year, the next most likely launch date is late 2024. In the unlikely event that Murphy’s law hits and everything that can go wrong does go wrong, the Tesla robotaxi fleet could launch in 2030. 

ARK Invest strongly believes that Tesla’s robotaxi business has far more potential than its automotive sales business. 

“Tesla’s prospective robotaxi business line is a key driver, contributing 67% of expected enterprise value and 64% of expected EBITDA in 2027,” noted ARK in its recently published report. “Across our simulation set, electric vehicles account for 47% of revenues in 2027, at substantially lower margins than robotaxi revenue. The chart below breaks down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and value by business line.”

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk holds a similar view. During the last earnings call, Musk emphasized the critical role autonomy will play in Tesla’s profits. 

“We’ve taken a view that pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here versus a lower volume and higher margin. However, we expect our vehicles, over time, will be able to generate significant profit through autonomy,” Musk said.

“So we do believe we’re like laying the groundwork here, and then it’s better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin and, subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy. This is an extremely important point.”

Despite his past predictions, Musk is optimistic that Tesla will reach full autonomy this year. The EV automaker’s recent actions hint that it is closer to autonomy than ever before, considering increased talk about Tesla’s next-generation vehicles. Tesla has teased a robotaxi car over the years, but 2023 seems different. The company has shown a clear path toward a ride-hailing car in Master Plan Part 3 and the announcement of Gigafactory Mexico. 

The Teslarati team would appreciate hearing from you. If you have any tips, contact me at maria@teslarati.com or via Twitter @Writer_01001101.

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Maria--aka "M"-- is an experienced writer and book editor. She's written about several topics including health, tech, and politics. As a book editor, she's worked with authors who write Sci-Fi, Romance, and Dark Fantasy. M loves hearing from TESLARATI readers. If you have any tips or article ideas, contact her at maria@teslarati.com or via X, @Writer_01001101.

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Tesla scrambles after Musk sidekick exit, CEO takes over sales

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is reportedly overseeing sales in North America and Europe, Bloomberg reports.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla scrambled its executives around following the exit of CEO Elon Musk’s sidekick last week, Omead Afshar. Afshar was relieved of his duties as Head of Sales for both North America and Europe.

Bloomberg is reporting that Musk is now overseeing both regions for sales, according to sources familiar with the matter. Afshar left the company last week, likely due to slow sales in both markets, ending a seven-year term with the electric automaker.

Tesla’s Omead Afshar, known as Elon Musk’s right-hand man, leaves company: reports

Afshar was promoted to the role late last year as Musk was becoming more involved in the road to the White House with President Donald Trump.

Afshar, whose LinkedIn account stated he was working within the “Office of the CEO,” was known as Musk’s right-hand man for years.

Additionally, Tom Zhu, currently the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, will oversee sales in Asia, according to the report.

It is a scramble by Tesla to get the company’s proven executives over the pain points the automaker has found halfway through the year. Sales are looking to be close to the 1.8 million vehicles the company delivered in both of the past two years.

Tesla is pivoting to pay more attention to the struggling automotive sales that it has felt over the past six months. Although it is still performing well and is the best-selling EV maker by a long way, it is struggling to find growth despite redesigning its vehicles and launching new tech and improvements within them.

The company is also looking to focus more on its deployment of autonomous tech, especially as it recently launched its Robotaxi platform in Austin just over a week ago.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

However, while this is the long-term catalyst for Tesla, sales still need some work, and it appears the company’s strategy is to put its biggest guns on its biggest problems.

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Tesla upgrades Model 3 and Model Y in China, hikes price for long-range sedan

Tesla’s long-range Model 3 now comes with a higher CLTC-rated range of 753 km (468 miles).

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla has rolled out a series of quiet upgrades to its Model 3 and Model Y in China, enhancing range and performance for long-range variants. The updates come with a price hike for the Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel Drive, which now costs RMB 285,500 (about $39,300), up RMB 10,000 ($1,400) from the previous price.

Model 3 gets acceleration boost, extended range

Tesla’s long-range Model 3 now comes with a higher CLTC-rated range of 753 km (468 miles), up from 713 km (443 miles), and a faster 0–100 km/h acceleration time of 3.8 seconds, down from 4.4 seconds. These changes suggest that Tesla has bundled the previously optional Acceleration Boost for the Model 3, once priced at RMB 14,100 ($1,968), as a standard feature.

Delivery wait times for the long-range Model 3 have also been shortened, from 3–5 weeks to just 1–3 weeks, as per CNEV Post. No changes were made to the entry-level RWD or Performance versions, which retain their RMB 235,500 and RMB 339,500 price points, respectively. Wait times for those trims also remain at 1–3 weeks and 8–10 weeks.

Model Y range increases, pricing holds steady

The Model Y Long Range has also seen its CLTC-rated range increase from 719 km (447 miles) to 750 km (466 miles), though its price remains unchanged at RMB 313,500 ($43,759). The model maintains a 0–100 km/h time of 4.3 seconds.

Tesla also updated delivery times for the Model Y lineup. The Long Range variant now shows a wait time of 1–3 weeks, an improvement from the previous 3–5 weeks. The entry-level RWD version maintained its starting price of RMB 263,500, though its delivery window is now shorter at 2–4 weeks.

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Tesla continues to offer several purchase incentives in China, including an RMB 8,000 discount for select paint options, an RMB 8,000 insurance subsidy, and five years of interest-free financing for eligible variants.

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Tesla China registrations hit 20.7k in final week of June, highest in Q2

The final week of June stands as the second-highest of 2025 and the best-performing week of the quarter.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla China recorded 20,680 domestic insurance registrations during the week of June 23–29, marking its highest weekly total in the second quarter of 2025. 

The figure represents a 49.3% increase from the previous week and a 46.7% improvement year-over-year, suggesting growing domestic momentum for the electric vehicle maker in Q2’s final weeks.

Q2 closes with a boost despite year-on-year dip

The strong week helped lift Tesla’s performance for the quarter, though Q2 totals remain down 4.6% quarter-over-quarter and 10.9% year-over-year, according to industry watchers. Despite these declines, the last week of June stands as the second-highest of 2025 and the best-performing week of the quarter. 

As per industry watchers, Tesla China delivered 15,210 New Model Y units last week, the highest weekly tally since the vehicle’s launch. The Model 3 followed with 5,470 deliveries during the same period. Tesla’s full June and Q2 sales data for China are expected to be released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) in the coming days.

https://twitter.com/piloly/status/1939897310328111556
https://twitter.com/Tslachan/status/1939955521970147756

Tesla China and minor Model 3 and Model Y updates

Tesla manufactures the Model 3 and Model Y at its Shanghai facility, which provides vehicles to both domestic and international markets. In May, the automaker reported 38,588 retail sales in China, down 30.1% year-over-year but up 34.3% from April. Exports from Shanghai totaled 23,074 units in May, a 32.9% improvement from the previous year but down 22.4% month-over-month, as noted in a CNEV Post report.

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Earlier this week, Tesla introduced minor updates to the long-range versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in China. The refreshed Model 3 saw a modest price increase, while pricing for the updated Model Y Long Range variant remained unchanged. These adjustments come as Tesla continues refining its China lineup amid shifting local demand and increased competition from domestic brands.

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