Fatal traffic incidents dropped in the U.S. last year, according to a U.S. safety regulator who reported initial 2023 estimates this week.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released its early estimates for 2023 traffic fatalities on Monday, noting that they decreased by around 3.6 percent year over year. The regulator says roughly 40,990 people died in motor vehicle accidents last year, down from the 42,514 reported in 2022, and 43,230 in 2021.
Despite the decrease, the agency notes that motor accident fatalities still haven’t dropped back to pre-pandemic levels, with the lowest level of fatal traffic incidents in the past decade taking place in 2014 at a total of 32,744. Meanwhile, the fatality rate remained higher than any pre-pandemic year since 2008.
You can see a few charts from the recent NHTSA fatality report below.
Credit: NHTSA Credit: NHTSA Credit: NHTSA
For the first time, however, total miles driven in 2023 did outpace pre-pandemic levels, bringing the overall fatality rate down quite substantially compared to the past few years.
The 2023 rate of fatal incidents represented a fatality rate of 1.26 per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT), compared to 1.34, 1.38, and 1.33 in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. The total VMT in 2023 increased by roughly 67.5 billion miles, marking a 2.1 percent increase from 2022.
In Q4 alone, the NHTSA also says the U.S. had the seventh consecutive quarterly decline in fatalities, starting with Q2 2022.
Tesla engineering team holds “Safety Research Day” for gov’t, academic, and NGO leaders
The agency has also announced plans for a new program targeting distracted driving, based on data looking at 2022 that says around 3,308 people were killed, and 289,310 injured, by distracted drivers.
“Distracted driving is extremely dangerous,” said Sophie Shulman, NHTSA Deputy Administrator. “Distraction comes in many forms, but it is also preventable. Our rebranded campaign reminds everyone to Put the Phone Away or Pay, because distracted driving can cost you in fines – or even cost your life or the life of someone else on the road.”
The updates come as Tesla and others working toward autonomous driving aim to reduce fatal traffic incidents, with many expecting advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) to eventually become safer than human drivers. The automaker also releases a quarterly vehicle safety report.
In Q4 2023, Tesla reported one crash for every 5.39 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot, and one crash for every 1.00 million miles driven not using Autopilot in Tesla vehicles, compared to one every 670,000 in Q4 2022 reported by the NHTSA.
You can see the full NHTSA traffic fatalities report for 2023 here, along with a couple more images from the estimates below.
Credit: NHTSA Credit: NHTSA
What are your thoughts? Let me know at zach@teslarati.com, find me on X at @zacharyvisconti, or send us tips at tips@teslarati.com.
News
SpaceX hit with mishap investigation by FAA for Starship Flight 9
Starship’s ninth test flight has the FAA requiring a mishap investigation from SpaceX.

SpaceX has been hit with yet another mishap investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) related to the company’s ninth test flight of Starship earlier this week.
The FAA said the mishap investigation is “focused only on the loss of the Starship vehicle, which did not complete its launch or reentry as planned.” The agency said the loss of the Super Heavy booster is covered by one of the FAA’s approved test induced damage exceptions requested by SpaceX.
All of Starship and Super Heavy booster debris landed within the designated hazard areas, the FAA confirmed.
It said it activated a Debris Response Area out of an abundance of caution as the booster “experienced its anomaly over the Gulf of America during its flyback toward Texas. The FAA subsequently determined the debris did not fall outside of the hazard area. During the event there were zero departure delays, one flight was diverted, and one airborne flight was held for 24 minutes. ”
SpaceX has become accustomed to mishap investigations by the FAA, as they have been impacted by them on several occasions in the past, including on Flight 8. However, they are a precautionary measure and usually are resolved within a few weeks.
Flight 9 was one of SpaceX’s most eventful, as there were several discoveries during the launch. First, it was SpaceX’s first time reusing a Super Heavy booster, as the one utilized for Flight 9 was also used on Flight 7 in January.
Contact with the booster and Starship were both lost during Flight 9. SpaceX said the booster was lost “shortly after the start of landing burn when it experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly approximately 6 minutes after launch.”
Meanwhile, Starship was set to make a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the vehicle was lost about 46 minutes into the flight, SpaceX said in a mission recap.
It was an improvement from the previous two flights, as both 7 and 8 resulted in the loss of Starship after just a few minutes. Flight 9 lasted considerably longer. These flights are also not intended to make it to Mars, despite what other reports might try to tell you.
These are ways to gain information for when SpaceX eventually tries to get Starship to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.
Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.
He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.
Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.
Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”
He wrote:
“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”
The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.
Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush
Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more
Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.
Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.
News
Tesla’s apparent affordable model zips around Fremont test track
Tesla was zipping around a strange, covered, compact Model Y at Fremont this week.

Tesla was racing a compact, short, and stocky Model Y with front and rear end covers around its Fremont Factory’s test track today, potentially giving us a look at the upcoming affordable model.
On Thursday, Met God in the Wilderness on YouTube posted a flyover of the Fremont Factory, a weekly occurrence for the channel. This week’s video featured a smaller, more compact Model Y racing around the Test Track at Fremont, trailed by a Cybertruck:
- Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube
- Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube
- Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube
- Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube
While both bumpers are covered, it still seems to be a much more compact version of the Model Y. There is also the potential that this is the upcoming Model Y Performance, but it seems that this vehicle is smaller than the traditional Model Y. Tesla would not reduce its size this much for the Performance configuration.
With that, it seems more likely it is one of the affordable models.
Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25
It also plays into the idea that Tesla is planning to launch vehicles very similar to the Model Y and Model 3. During the last Earnings Call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy stated that the affordable models the company planned to launch would be of the same form and factor as the Model Y, indicating potentially a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover:
“I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones.”
This was essentially a read-between-the-lines moment for investors as they took it as the affordable models would not be much different than the Model Y.
This vehicle seems to fit the bill of what Moravy described: it is eerily similar to the Model Y without the lengthened front and rear. While it is still tough to determine exactly what it is, it surely does look to be something that Tesla is keeping under wraps for the short term.
-
News1 week ago
Tesla posts Optimus’ most impressive video demonstration yet
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla posts FSD demonstrations in Australia and France
-
News2 weeks ago
xAI tackles Grok’s unsolicited responses after unauthorized change
-
Investor's Corner2 weeks ago
Tesla welcomes Chipotle President Jack Hartung to its Board of Directors
-
Elon Musk1 week ago
Tesla’s Elon Musk confirms he’ll stay CEO for at least five more years
-
News1 week ago
Neuralink Blindsight human trials expected to start in the UAE
-
News2 weeks ago
Tesla Giga Berlin seems to be using FSD Unsupervised to move Model Y units
-
Elon Musk1 week ago
Elon Musk just revealed more about Tesla’s June Robotaxi launch