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SpaceX aims for 3 rocket launches in a single week, 6 launches in 1 month

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Tailing an intense February that saw SpaceX successfully complete inaugural launches of both Falcon Heavy and two Starlink prototype satellites, the next three weeks of March are likely to be relatively quiet. However, by all appearances, SpaceX is preparing for a frenetic end-of-month that could include three Falcon 9 launches from three separate SpaceX launch pads, all in a single week, and as many as six launches total between March 29 and April 30.

If successful, this series of missions would smash all of SpaceX’s past launch cadence records – six launches in little more than a single month, two reused flights in four days, three launches in one week, and two East coast launches in three days, not to mention the debut of Falcon 9 Block 5. To put this level of activity in perspective, SpaceX could complete the equivalent of four months or 33% of all of their 2017 launches in a single month. SpaceX’s aggressive goal of 30 launches in 2018 still means that the company could complete a full 1/5th of their scheduled manifest in less than five weeks, a cadence that – if maintained for a full year – would equate to 60-70 launches in 12 months.

50 launches of Falcon 9 in seven and a half years. Graphic produced by Reddit user ethan829. (Reddit /u/ethan829)

Three launches, three pads, seven days

Beginning on March 29, SpaceX’s next series of launches will kick off with the flight-proven Iridium-5 mission tasked with placing 10 Iridium NEXT communications satellites into LEO from Vandenberg Air Force Base. Three days later (April 2), a flight-proven Cargo Dragon and Falcon 9 booster are scheduled to lift off from LC-40 on the East coast, likely followed by the first stage’s second landing at LZ-1. Finally, SpaceX will return Pad 39A to its first single-stick Falcon 9 launches since February’s inaugural Falcon Heavy flight with Bangabandhu-1, the Bangladesh government’s first-ever geostationary satellite. Bangabandhu-1 will also mark the inaugural launch of SpaceX’ potentially game-changing Falcon 9 upgrade, and that invaluable pathfinder booster will almost certainly find its way to a soft landing aboard the Atlantic drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY).

Following those three launches and around ten days of quiet, SpaceX will launch NASA’s TESS, a scientific probe tasked with searching for planets beyond our solar system, from Florida’s LC-40, April 16. After another ten-day “break,” the company will jump back to the West coast to place another five Iridium NEXT satellites (and two NASA science payloads) into orbit on April 28. On April 30, just two days later, SES-12 is scheduled for an East coast launch to geostationary transfer orbit aboard a reused Falcon 9.

A new era of rapid reusability rears its head

Put simply, this is an extreme pace for orbital launches, and would be an absolutely staggering achievement for SpaceX even if Hispasat’s week-long delay extends that month-long period to six or so weeks for a half-dozen launches. While almost certainly a coincidence, this rapid succession of launches happens to coincide with the inaugural April 5th launch of SpaceX’s next-generation Falcon 9, an upgrade meant to enable cheap and rapid reuse of the rocket’s first stage. With Block 5, it is entirely conceivable that a Falcon 9 booster could land at LZ-1, be transported back to the launch pad after a brief once-over, and conduct another launch in a matter of days, at a meaningful cost of little more than the second stage and payload fairing (for the time being, at least). Of course, those minimal costs will at first help SpaceX recoup its considerable investments in reusability, but they can be expected to trickle down to the customer within a year or two (~30-60 launches) of Block 5’s introduction.

Ultimately, Falcon 9 Block 5 will give SpaceX an unprecedented amount of capital flexibility. Once the upgrade has phased out older Falcons, the company will have a huge amount of freedom to constantly strike a balance between competitive pricing and profit margins. In other words, no launch provider on Earth will be able to lowball SpaceX on cost without SpaceX’s conscious acquiescence, and every single recoverable launch of a Block 5 will equate to profit margins previously inconceivable for the company. However, rather than lining the pockets of military-industrial complex profiteers, those profits will help SpaceX both pay off R&D debts and intensively invest in more thrilling hardware developments, including Crew Dragon, Starlink, Raptor, BFR/BFS, and beyond. SpaceX does not intend to become rich and lazy in their success — they mean to develop technology that will provide affordable internet on a global scale, return humanity to the moon, and one day establish a permanent and self-sustaining city on Mars.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla talks Semi ramp, Optimus, Robotaxi rollout, FSD with Wall Street firm

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) recently talked about a variety of topics with Wall Street firm Piper Sandler, as the firm released a new note on Friday about their meeting with the company’s Investor Relations team.

According to the note from Piper Sandler, Tesla talked in detail about the Semi program, Optimus, and its potential valuation given its capabilities, the rollout of Robotaxi in Austin, and Full Self-Driving progress in the United States.

Tesla Semi Ramp

The Tesla Semi is set to enter mass production in 2026 at a dedicated factory near the company’s Gigafactory in Reno, Nevada.

The Semi has already been in pilot program testing, as Tesla has partnered with a few companies, like Frito-Lay and PepsiCo., to perform regional logistics. It has been met with excellent reviews from drivers, and it has helped give Tesla a good idea of what to expect when it makes its way to more companies in the coming years.

Piper Sandler said that it is evident Tesla is preparing for a “major ramp,” but it is keeping its expectations low:

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“We’ve never expected much from this product, but we’d love to be proven wrong (Tesla is clearly prepping for a major ramp).”

Tesla Optimus and its value internally and externally

Optimus has been working in Tesla factories for some time, but its expectations as a product offering outside of the company internally have major implications.

Its role within Tesla factories, for now, is relatively low, but Optimus is still doing things to assist. By this time next year, Piper Sandler said Optimus should have bigger responsibilities:

“By this time in 2026, Optimus should be moving/staging parts within Tesla’s facilities.”

Outside of Tesla, Optimus could be a major beneficiary for companies as it could be a more affordable way to handle tedious tasks and manual labor. The firm believes that if Optimus can work 18-hour shifts, a cost of $100,000 per unit “would be justified.”

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Tesla Robotaxi Expansion

The big focus of the firm with Robotaxi was Tesla’s expansion of the geofence in Austin this week. It was substantial, bringing the Robotaxi’s total service area to around 170 square miles, up from the roughly 90 square miles that rival Waymo is offering in the city.

Tesla Robotaxi geofence expansion enters Plaid Mode and includes a surprise

Tesla has doubled its geofence three times since its launch in late June, and it also revealed that its fleet of vehicles has expanded by 50 percent. It did not give a solid number of how many vehicles are operating in the fleet.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 launch

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is set to have a fresh version, v14, rolled out in either September or October, and there are some pretty high expectations for it.

CEO Elon Musk said:

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“The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It’s going through training & testing now. Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less.”

There is also some expectation that v14 could be the public release of what Tesla is running in Austin for Robotaxi. The firm confirmed this in their note by stating it “should enable Tesla owners to use software that is on par with Robotaxis in Austin.”

The only real hold up would be regulator skepticism, but Tesla can alleviate this with strong data.

The firm maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $400 price target it holds on the stock.

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Tesla starts Full Self-Driving rollout to owners in Australia

“To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has already started rolling out its Full Self-Driving suite to owners in Australia after officially launching the driver assistance suite in the country yesterday.

Earlier this week, Tesla seemed to be moving toward the launch of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia after numerous media members received early access to test its performance.

Tesla officially launched Full Self-Driving (Supervised) in Australia yesterday. The company told media members who got early access to the suite that the rollout would begin with Hardware 4-equipped Model 3 and Model Y vehicles.

Tesla launches Full Self-Driving in a new region

The release would be slow and gradual, with the process performed in stages.

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The first stage of the rollout has already begun in Australia:

Tesla is reminding drivers in Australia who are using the suite for the first time that they must not become complacent while FSD is in operation. It is not fully autonomous and still requires the driver to remain attentive to road conditions and the vehicle’s surroundings.

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Currently, the suite is only available to purchase outright, and it comes at a cost of $10,100. A subscription model is in the works, similar to the one in the United States, but Tesla has not yet announced its plans or pricing model for this.

Australia is the sixth country to receive Full Self-Driving (Supervised), or at least some version of it, as the United States, Canada, Mexico, China, and Puerto Rico all have access to the suite currently. In China, it is slightly different and is referred to as “City Autopilot” due to regulatory boundaries.

Early reviews of the suite have been very strong, as local media have also had the opportunity to try it, with one journalist saying, To have this car drive me around Brisbane for an hour, we’re talking in the city, motorway, spaghetti bowl of on-ramps, it handled it so well. It was mind-blowing.”

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Tesla expands crazy new lease deal for insane savings on used inventory

Tesla was able to work through the hurdles in three states, expanding the deal to New York, New Jersey, and Florida.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has expanded its new lease deal, offering people insane savings on used inventory.

Last week, we reported on Tesla offering crazy good lease deals on some of its used inventory, as people were able to grab monthly payments for as little as $225 per month with no money down.

There was only one catch: the deal was only available in California and Texas.

Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up

However, Tesla has been working hard to get the lease deal expanded, and it finally has. Last night, Tesla’s VP of Finance, Sendil Palani, confirmed the deal had made it to three additional states.

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Palani explained that the deal was only available in California and Texas because the leasing process requires working through regulatory hurdles in each state. He said it “involves a nontrivial amount of work,” which makes things more difficult to iron out.

Tesla was able to work through the hurdles in three states, expanding the deal to New York, New Jersey, and Florida. It is currently active in those states, Palani said:

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Tesla is really making a concerted effort to push its inventory out the door, and many areas already are running low on both new and pre-owned inventory. It has cut prices on some new inventory, while offering these new lease deals on used vehicles that remain.

It is beneficial to the consumer for obvious reasons: cheaper payments and the ability to get a great deal on a car for no money down. Tesla is also getting rid of vehicles that were once thought to be intended for the Robotaxi fleet, but it appears these older hardware vehicles are no longer in the company’s plans for that purpose.

This is the first time Tesla has offered lease deals on used inventory, as it has only offered an outright purchase option in the past. In an effort to boost deliveries and rid itself of older cars, these lease deals are truly beneficial for both parties. It is only a wonder how long they will last.

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