Connect with us

News

Elon Musk pegs SpaceX BFR program at $5B as NASA’s rocket booster nears $5B in cost overruns

Published

7 years ago

on

At the same time as NASA’s overrun-stricken Space Launch System (SLS) continues to limp towards its continuously delayed launch debut, now tentatively expected no earlier than (NET) 2021, SpaceX is forging ahead with the development of an equivalently capable launch vehicle known as BFR, comprised of a spaceship (BFS) and booster (BFB).

During a September 17th update to the next-gen SpaceX rocket’s steady progress, CEO Elon Musk offered a rough cost estimate of $5B to complete its development – no less than $2B and no more than $10B. According to NASA’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), Boeing – primary contractor for NASA’s SLS “Core Stage” or booster – is all but guaranteed to burn through a minimum of $8.9B between 2012 and the rocket’s tentative 2021 launch debut.

Originally contracted in 2014 to complete SLS booster development, production, and preparation by 2018 at a cost of $4.2B, Boeing has overrun its budget by a bit less than 50% (up to $6.2B) and overshot its scheduled launch debut by more than 2.5 years. Per an October 10th audit of the SLS booster program, NASA OIG has reasonably concluded that Boeing will pass that $6.2B expenditure estimate – meant to last until 2021 – in December 2018, meaning that at least an additional $2.7B will be required from NASA between now and 2021 if SLS is to have a chance at launching that year.

Advertisement

In other words, compared to Boeing’s first serious 2014 contract for the SLS Core Stages – $4.2B to complete Core Stages 1 and 2 and launch EM-1 in Nov. 2017 – the company will ultimately end up 215% over-budget ($4.2B to $8.9B) and ~40 months behind schedule (42 months to 80+ months from contract award to completion). Meanwhile, as OIG notes, NASA has continued to give Boeing impossibly effusive and glowing performance reviews to the tune of $323 million in “award fees”, with grades that would – under the contracting book NASA itself wrote – imply that Boeing SLS Core Stage work has been reliably under budget and ahead of schedule (it’s not).

The “Satisfactory” Stuff

In reality, Boeing has not once been under budget or ahead of schedule during any of 6+ NASA performance reviews.

“Boeing should have received a “satisfactory” rating for [two review periods]; a “good” rating for [one review period]; and an “unsatisfactory” rating (no award fee) for [the 2017 review period].”

Instead, NASA has given Boeing three “Very Good” (nearly perfect) reviews and three “Excellent” (perfect) reviews over the last 6 years, ultimately dispersing $323M of pure-profit “award fees” thanks to those grades, while the OIG firmly disputes Boing’s worthiness for at least $65M of that sum.

Boeing – recently brought to light as the likely source of a spate of egregiously counterfactual op-eds published with the intention of dirtying SpaceX’s image – also took it upon itself to sponsor what could be described as responses to NASA OIG’s scathing October 10th SLS audit. Hilariously, a Politico newsletter sponsored by Boeing managed to explicitly demean and belittle the Apollo-era Saturn V rocket as a “rickety metal bucket built with 1960s technology”, of which Boeing was the core stage’s prime contractor.

At the same time, that newsletter described SLS as a rocket that will be “light years ahead of thespacecraft [sic] that NASA astronauts used to get to the moon 50 years ago.” At present, the only clear way SLS is or will be “light years” ahead – as much a measure of time as it is of distance – of Saturn V is by continuing the rocket’s trend of endless delays. Perhaps NASA astronomers will soon be able to judge exactly how many “light years ahead” SLS is by measuring the program’s redshift or blueshift with one of several ground- and space-based telescopes.

Ultimately, this is a particularly effective bit of self-mockery in the context of rationale lately used by Boeing and NASA to shrug off the jaw-dropping Core Stage contract’s underperformance, missteps, schedule slips, and budget overruns, namely that building big, complex rockets is hard. NASA and Boeing, neither of which have any meaningful experience building big, complex rockets – aside from Saturn IB, Saturn V, and the Space Shuttle – thus should be given a break for reliably and dramatically underestimating the difficulties of doing so in the 21st century.

Simultaneously, Boeing and NASA still continue to act as if they are the foremost global experts of building extremely large rockets and continue to throw pile upon pile of taxpayer billions at overpromised attempts to prove as much. It’s no more than a masochistic dream to imagine what could have been or might be if NASA instead redirected those billions towards US aerospace companies with track records of success through fixed-cost contracts or straight-up private funding (SpaceX and Blue Origin, primarily), but it’s often hard not to at least think about the possibilities.

For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!

Related Topics:

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Advertisement
Comments

Investor's Corner

LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings call

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call.

Published

32 minutes ago

on

October 22, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q3 2025 update letter, which was released after the closing bell on October 22, 2025.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Results

As could be seen in Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.39 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $28.095 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $1.37 billion.

Tesla’s total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, while operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6 billion. This means that for Q3 2025, Tesla’s had a 5.8% operating margin. Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments was $41.6 billion by the end of the third quarter.

Earnings call updates

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q3 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.

16:25 CT – Good day to everyone, and welcome to another Tesla earnings call live blog. The Q3 2025 Update Letter seemed to be on the quieter side, but it’s hard not to be impressed with Tesla’s $4 billion free cash flow, an all-time high.

Advertisement

Now we just have to see how the earnings call will go.

16:30 CT – Looks like the earnings call’s livestream is up. It hasn’t started yet, but the music’s on. Here’s the livestream:

16:33 CT – One of the most fun things about Tesla earnings call coverages is that you don’t really know what type of Elon Musk you’re gonna get. The questions from investors and analysts are always fun too.

16:35 CT – And here we go. Travis Axelrod takes the floor and introduces Tesla’s executives.

16:36 CT – Elon’s opening remarks begin. He says Tesla is at a critical point because real-world AI is imminent. He states that he believes Tesla has the highest intelligence density. “It’s gonna be like a shockwave,” Elon said, highlighting that there are millions of cars out there that could become full self-driving with a simple software update.

Advertisement

16:38 CT – With Tesla achieving clarity on Unsupervised FSD, Musk stated that he feels “confident in expanding Tesla’s production.” He also noted that Tesla Energy is rising quickly, especially with products like the Powerwall and the Megapack. “We see the potential there for Tesla battery packs to improve the energy output per year of any given grid, the US or otherwise.”

16:40 CT – Elon also reiterated his prediction that Tesla Optimus could be the largest product in the world. A good reason for this is the fact that Tesla has scale, Musk stated. Musk also stated that it’s easy for users in the United States to test out FSD V14 for themselves. He also mentioned that Tesla is currently hard at work with Megapack 4.

“We look forward to unveiling Optimus V3 in Q1. I think it will be quite remarkable,” Musk said, adding that V3 will almost seem like a person in a robot suit.

16:45 CT – Musk summed up his opening remarks with a comment on Tesla’s updated mission.

“In conclusion, we’re excited about the updated mission of Tesla, which is sustainable abundance. We’re going beyond sustainable energy. We believe that with Optimus and self-driving, we can actually create a world where there is no poverty, where everyone has access to the finest medical care.

Advertisement

“Optimus will be an incredible surgeon. Imagine if everyone had access to an incredible surgeon. I think we’re headed to sustainable abundance, and I’m excited to work with the Tesla team to make that happen,” Musk said, summing up.

16:48 CT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja discussed the company’s rollout of its expanded Model Y lineup such as the Model Y L, as well as the advantages of the Robotaxi network. He also confirmed that Tesla is looking to secure approvals for FSD tests in several areas across the globe.

He also discussed Tesla’s regulatory credits. “”While regulatory credits declined sequentially, we entered into new contracts and delivered on previous contracts,” he said.

16:54 CT – Investor questions are asked about demand for Megapack and Powerwall. Tesla noted that Tesla is seeing a lot of interest and demand for Megapack and its related products. There is also a surge in demand for residential batteries.

Looks like the Tesla Solar Roof is coming alive as well.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 earnings results

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products.

Published

2 hours ago

on

October 22, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q3 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, October 22, 2025. 

Tesla’s Q3 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 447,000 vehicles, delivered over 497,000 vehicles, and deployed 12.5 GWh of energy storage products. 

Tesla’s Q3 2025 results

As could be seen in Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.39 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $28.095 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $1.37 billion.

In comparison, FactSet consensus expects Tesla to post earnings per share of around $0.56, down 22% from Q3 2024’s $0.72 per share. Tesla’s revenue is forecasted to rise 5.4% to $26.54 billion, as noted in an Investor.com report.

On the other hand, Sharp consensus, which tracks analyst revision trends, predicts Tesla to post earnings of $0.57 per share and revenue totaling $28.31 billion.

Advertisement

Other key results

Tesla highlighted the following Q3 results in its Update Letter.

As per Tesla, it is stil profitable with $1.6 billion GAAP operating income, $1.4 billion GAAP net income, and $1.8 billion non-GAAP net income. By the end of the third quarter, Tesla had an operating cash flow of $6.2 billion and record free cash flow of nearly $4.0 billion.

Tesla’s total revenue increased 12% YoY to $28.1 billion, while operating income decreased 40% YoY to $1.6 billion. This means that for Q3 2025, Tesla’s had a 5.8% operating margin. Tesla’s quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments were at $41.6 billion by the end of the third quarter.

Tesla’s Q3 2025 Update Letter

TSLA-Q3-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez

Advertisement
Continue Reading

News

Tesla’s new Safety Report shows Autopilot is nine times safer than humans

Tesla released its Vehicle Safety Report for Q3 2025, and it showed that one crash was recorded every 6.36 million miles drive in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.

Published

4 hours ago

on

October 22, 2025

By

Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s new Safety Report for Q3 shows Autopilot technology contributed to accident frequency that was nine times lower than the national average.

Tesla released its Vehicle Safety Report for Q3 2025, and it showed that one crash was recorded every 6.36 million miles drive in which drivers were using Autopilot technology.

This is a stark contrast from the most recent data made available by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), which shows there is an automobile crash approximately every 702,000 miles.

The figure for Q3 2025 is slightly lower than the one that Tesla released in Q3 2024, which eclipsed 7 million miles between accidents for drivers using Autopilot technology.

Over the past seven quarters, Q1 has been Tesla’s strongest showing with the Vehicle Safety Report, with Q4 being the weakest. This is usually attributed to weather and driving conditions deteriorating toward the end of the year.

Q1 2024 was Tesla’s best performance so far, with one crash every 7.63 million miles.

Tesla releases Vehicle Safety Report for Q1 2024

Autopilot and Full Self-Driving have been a major focus of Tesla over the past few years, and recent versions have improved on what has already proven to be an extremely safe way to travel, as long as it is used correctly.

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) suite is a suitable way to allow the vehicle to navigate through any traffic setting and has been widely effective for day-to-day travel. With the data Tesla gets from its use across its vehicle fleet, it gets more refined and more accurate with every passing mile.

The company has teased the potential for completely unsupervised Full Self-Driving releases in the future, but Tesla has to solve autonomy before it can offer anything like that to the public.

Continue Reading

Trending