SpaceX
SpaceX’s Starship hopper spotted with trio of dual-bell Raptor engines
Following a brief ‘hop’ (via crane) off of a concrete build stand, the aft section of SpaceX’s first full-scale Starship hopper (Starhopper?) revealed that SpaceX technicians have already installed what appear to be three real Raptor engines, presumably the first time the propulsion system has ever been mounted to something that might eventually fly.
For a number of reasons, there is a strong chance that these Raptors are actually just boilerplate placeholders standing in as structural guides for the real deal some months down the line. On the other hand, there are also a number of reasons to assume that these apparent engines are indeed real Raptors.
Star ship hopper might be a bit bigger than we thought and with the crane placements over the nose end of the vehicle. This could suggest, @SpaceX are planning to move the segment elsewhere perhaps to the welding stand? We will have to wait and see. (Austin Barnard📸) #2019🚀 pic.twitter.com/kn8hhUPWCU
— Austin Barnard🚀 (@austinbarnard45) January 1, 2019
Despite an already shocking series of rapid-fire developments in the South Texas Starhopper saga, the abrupt appearance of what appears to be three Raptor engines – mirroring CEO Elon Musk’s recent statement that the test vehicle would sport three Raptors – is by far the most unexpected moment yet for the prototype Starship. Purportedly a full-scale prototype of BFR’s upper stage/spaceship (now known as Starship), Musk indicated over the last two weeks that the hopper has been designed to perform a number of hop tests in which the craft’s three Raptors would power it to a range of (relatively low) altitudes above Boca Chica, Texas.
According to a recent FCC filing related to this test program, SpaceX is currently seeking a license for Starship hop tests that will not exceed 5 km (3.1 mi) in altitude and/or 6 minutes in duration. There is admittedly nothing mentioned about the maximum allowed velocity during those tests, but – much like Blue Origin performs supersonic tests of New Shepard in Cape Horn, Texas – SpaceX will likely seek and be granted permission to break the sound barrier during those hypothetical tests. Nevertheless, a 5km ceiling is a fairly significant cap on the range of performance Starhopper will be able to test – accelerating vertically at 2Gs, Starhopper could travel from sea level to 5km in less than 30 seconds while reaching speeds no higher than Mach 1-1.5.
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- SpaceX technicians and engineers are continuing to work at a breakneck pace on Starhopper. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
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- At this rate, the hopper will likely wind up around 40m (130 feet) tall. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
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- A close examination of these three engine-like protrusions suggests a level of fit and finish far exceeding a boilerplate stand-in. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Combined with the apparent fact that this Starhopper’s fins seem unlikely to ever actuate (i.e. no aerodynamic control surfaces), it’s probable that this ad hoc prototype is only meant to perform a very limited range of hop tests, perhaps as basic as ironing out the kinks of operating a trio of gimballed Raptors and ensuring that they can safely and reliably launch, hover, and land a very large Starship-shaped mass simulator. Falcon 9’s Grasshopper and F9R reusability testbeds performed a very similar task some five years ago, offering SpaceX engineers the opportunity to optimize software and hardware needed to reliably recover real orbital-class rockets after launch. Although Falcon 9 has nine gimballed Merlin 1D engines, SpaceX has long sided with the sole center Merlin as the dedicated landing engine and has only briefly experimented with triple-Merlin landing burns.
Dual-expansion whaaaaat?
According to Musk, Raptor – an advanced liquid methane and oxygen engine with a uniquely efficient propulsion cycle – was expected to produce an impressive ~2000 kN (200 ton, 450K lbf) of thrust in its finished form as of September 2018. However, Musk also mentioned in a late-2017 Reddit AMA that SpaceX engineers were modifying the ship’s design to ensure engine-out reliability during all regimes of flight, landing in particular. To accomplish this feat with an engine as powerful as Raptor, two or three Raptors – capable of producing as much as 600 tons of thrust total – would need to reliably throttle as low as 25%, assuming a landing mass of around 150t. To allow a nearly empty ship (~100t) to still reliably land with three Raptors ignited, the engines would need to be able to throttle to 20% or less.
Known as deep throttling in rocketry, ensuring stable combustion and thrust at 20% (let alone 40%) throttle is an extraordinarily challenging feat, often subjecting engines to forces that can literally tear non-optimized hardware apart. To achieve such a deep throttle capability without excessively disrupting the engine’s design, SpaceX appears to have potentially sided with less efficient but extremely simple alternative, known as a dual-bell (or dual-expansion) rocket nozzle. A 1999 Rocketdyne paper concisely explained the primary draws of such a nozzle:
“The [altitude-compensating] dual-bell nozzle offers a unique combination of performance, simplicity, low weight, and ease of cooling” – Horn & Fisher, 1999
Exactly
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Given that SpaceX has decided to delay the introduction and certification of a vacuum-optimized Raptor engine, choosing to instead use the same Raptor on both BFR stages, something like a dual-bell nozzle would be one of the best possible ways for the company to retain some of the efficiency benefits of a vacuum engine while also drastically improving design simplicity, ease of manufacturing, and cutting development time. Aside from offering efficiency gains by way of altitude compensation, a dual-bell nozzle also happens to enable a given engine to operate a much wider throttle range by mitigating problems with flow separation and instability.
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- A gif of Raptor throttling over the course of a 90+ second static-fire test in McGregor, Texas. (SpaceX)
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- Note that Merlin 1D and prior Raptor prototypes both feature traditional single nozzles. (Pauline Acalin)
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- An overview of dual-bell and deflection nozzles. Raptor appears to have now graduated to the former style. (Johan Steelant, 2011)
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- Starhopper’s Raptors feature a very distinct seam and second curve, indicative of a dual-bell nozzle. (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
For Starhopper and Starship, both aspects are an undeniable net-gain and it’s entirely possible that these dual-bell nozzles – if successfully demonstrated – could find their way onto Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy to further boost their booster performance and efficiency.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) stands to reap one of the most extraordinary returns in pension fund history thanks to a bold 2019 investment in SpaceX.
According to a recent report from The Globe and Mail, the Toronto-based fund invested roughly $300 million CAD (~$220 million USD at the time) in Elon Musk’s space company as its inaugural deal through the Teachers’ Innovation Platform.
At SpaceX’s anticipated $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, set for a mid-June debut on Nasdaq under ticker $SPCX, that stake could now be worth up to $11.6 billion USD. This would represent a roughly 50x return and easily become OTPP’s most successful single investment ever.
The fund manages $279 billion in assets for approximately 346,000 working and retired teachers in Ontario, potentially delivering an average boost of around $33,500 per member if fully realized.
SpaceX has filed its S-1 and plans to price shares at $135 each, aiming to raise a record $75 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco. The company reported $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025, driven primarily by Starlink satellite internet growth and NASA contracts, though it continues to post significant losses tied to ambitious R&D in Starship and AI initiatives.
Important pieces moving forward include:
- Starlink Expansion: The satellite broadband service is scaling rapidly, targeting global connectivity, especially in underserved rural and remote areas. This segment offers massive recurring revenue potential as numbers climb.
- Starship and Reusability Leadership: SpaceX’s fully reusable Starship aims to slash launch costs dramatically, enabling frequent missions, Mars ambitions, and lucrative government/defense contracts. Success here could unlock exponential growth.
- AI and Diversification: Recent moves, including ties to xAI, position SpaceX in high-growth AI infrastructure, broadening beyond traditional aerospace.
- Validation Scrutiny: While the $1.75 trillion target excites investors, analysts like Morningstar value the company closer to $780 billion, citing high multiples (around 90x trailing revenue) and execution risks. A 180-day lockup period will prevent early investors like OTPP from selling immediately post-IPO.
The irony has not been lost on observers. Ontario’s government previously canceled a Starlink rural internet contract amid political tensions involving Musk, yet the pension fund’s savvy investment, made when SpaceX was valued around $33-36 billion, and Starlink was nascent, delivers outsized gains independent of politics.
For OTPP, this windfall strengthens its already solid 111 percent funding ratio and underscores the value of patient, innovation-focused capital allocation.
For SpaceX, the IPO marks a new chapter: greater transparency, access to public markets for talent retention and growth capital, and heightened pressure to deliver on its multi-planetary vision.
All eyes are fixed on whether SpaceX can justify its lofty valuation through sustained execution. For Ontario teachers, the returns are already stellar, but SpaceX, like other Musk companies in the past, has plenty of things to prove. Perhaps the most ideal person for the job is at the helm, hoping to bring the company to a massive valuation.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s amended S-1 is sparking a major Tesla merger conversation
A single line in SpaceX’s amended S-1 just sent Tesla stock down 5% in one day.
A single line buried in SpaceX’s amended S-1 filing is doing more to move Tesla’s stock price than anything Tesla itself has announced in months. The clause, disclosed as SpaceX prepares for what could be the largest IPO in Wall Street history, states that the company “may issue a significant amount of equity in connection with future transactions.” While this may be seen as boilerplate language in S-1 filings, the historical ties between SpaceX and Tesla, and with Elon Musk reportedly discussing a possible merger with close colleagues, investors are interpreting it as something closer to a signal.
The concern among institutional investors like Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, pointed directly to the amended filing on X, saying it “strongly suggests more SPCX equity will be issued,” which could potentially be used to acquire Tesla. He estimated such a deal could be 28% dilutive to Tesla shareholders since SpaceX would likely command a significantly higher valuation multiple. Black added that institutional investors he knows hate the idea of a combination because they prefer pure plays over conglomerates, which he said “nearly always gravitate to the lowest common multiple.”
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
The bull case runs the math differently. Tesla influencer and retail shareholder advocate AleXandra Merz pushed back on what she called a widespread misunderstanding of how merger-of-equals deals actually work. Rather than simply splitting the difference between two market caps, a merger exchange ratio is negotiated based on relative fair market values, meaning the lower valued company typically sees its stock reprice upward toward the deal value.
Under her model, SpaceX enters at a $2.5 trillion valuation and Tesla at $1.6 trillion, producing a combined entity worth $4.1 trillion split evenly between both shareholder groups. That implies Tesla’s side of the deal would be valued at $2.05 trillion, a gain of roughly $450 billion from its current market cap. She cited Dow-DuPont and CBS-Viacom as historical examples of how markets reprice both companies toward the announced exchange ratio after a deal is unveiled.
What does a Merger of Equals mean to Elon’s compensation packages?
Well, it changes everything.
Enjoy https://t.co/uekCldyITw pic.twitter.com/kolq1C9qTu
— AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 (@TeslaBoomerMama) June 1, 2026
The SpaceX S-1 amendments also revealed just how much financial infrastructure already binds the two companies together. As Teslarati has reported, SpaceX purchased $697 million in Tesla Megapacks, $131 million in Cybertrucks, and the two companies have shared supply chain resources, and semiconductor fabrication plans since well before any merger conversation became public. A retail poll by Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt is finding that 36% of respondents do not plan to buy SpaceX shares at IPO and 15.3% saying their decision depends on the valuation.
Do you plan on buying @SpaceX stock at its IPO?
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 1, 2026
Whether the merger happens or not, the amended filing is seemingly moving markets and sharpened a debate that is no longer theoretical. SpaceX is weeks away from trading publicly, and Tesla shareholders are now watching every word of every filing for clues about what Musk plans to do next.
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
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