Investor's Corner
The Anatomy of a Tesla ($TSLA) Trader Analyst
Hi, my name is …
Marco Papa. I am a techie by trade and very much a product of the first dot com boom (and bust) of the 90’s. I originally came to this country from Italy to pursue a PhD in computer science at USC, back in 1981. I worked for 6 different dot-coms in the span of 10 years, starting as software developer, then system architect all the way to several CTO positions. All these companies, except one, no longer exist: they either were sold, or went bankrupt. But in the process I learned a lot about company valuations, private placements, and raising tens of millions of dollars from VCs, banks and brokerage houses. And yes, like many other Internet executives of the time, I owned a Ferrari 355 spider convertible. I’ll come back later to the Ferrari.
After 10 years of high-stress jobs, I decided to move to slower-paced “environments”: for the past 14 years I have held a daytime job working for state government and a nighttime job teaching Web Technologies at USC.
“Buy what you know”
But it is during the dot-com era that I started tinkering with Mutual Funds and stocks. For the initial 15 years I was an “investor”. I would purchase mutual funds and stocks and hold them for a minimum of a year. Then in 2005 something changed: I consolidated all my retirement funds from the various companies I had worked for into a single SEP-IRA at E-Trade and strangely enough, after answering a simple questionnaire, E-Trade gave me access to Level 2 Options trading. I did not know much about options then, so I subscribed to a service called the Options Oracle from The Market Guys (http://www.themarketguys.com), which recommends entry and exit points for options trades for a fee. I learned a lot, but I felt frustrated that I was trading options of companies I knew nothing about. So I decided to follow an investment method that I had learned when I used to hold shares in Fidelity Magellan Fund (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_Fund), a fund with $20B of stock investments, and the best performing one between 1977 and 1990, averaging over a 29% annual return. Peter Lynch, Magellan fund manager at that time, created the investment method commonly referred to as “Buy What You Know”: invest in businesses that you understand “personally”, especially if you buy and own their products. Since that time, I have tried to follow the “Buy What You Know” method in all my investments and trades.
Interestingly it is at that time that I started making my “switch” from Windows to the Mac. My first Apple purchase was an iPod; I subsequently trashed a ThinkPad and bought a MacBook, and finally trashed an HP desktop and bought a Mac Pro. Today I own probably close to 25 Apple devices, once I count all the iPhones, iPads, Apple Extremes, Apple TVs, and Apple Watches my wife and I use daily. In 2006 I started “investing” in Apple stock. After the stock market crash of 2007, I started “trading” Apple options. Between 2006 and 2014 I made more money trading AAPL than any other stock. During that time, I added a few more stocks to my trading pattern: Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB), Starbucks (SBUX) and more recently Tesla Motors (TSLA). These are all companies that qualify for the “Buy What You Know” mantra: I either buy their products regularly or use them in my daily life.
$TSLA to P90D
I started reading about Elon Musk since he founded PayPal. I read about his promotion of sustainable energy as a way to save our planet. In 2012 I installed solar panels in my house in Redondo Beach, CA. In 2013 I replaced my energy-hog 2007-vintage Mac Pro with a low-energy Mac Pro (a.k.a. the “can”). In 2014 I switched all light bulbs in my house (over 300 of them) from incandescent to low-energy LEDs. And in 2015 I bought a red Tesla Model S P90D (a.k.a. Red Five X-wing). By now my carbon footprint is in pretty good shape.
I started trading TSLA options in early 2014. By summer of 2015 I had enough profits from option trades in TSLA, AAPL and SCO to pay in cash 2/3 of the price of my P90D.
After trading TSLA for over two years I have a few opinions on how to invest or trade it. A stock for me is a good “investment” if it can be held for about 5 years, and provide annual stock gains of 5-10% per year. If you had purchased TSLA stock at the IPO in 2010 at about $19, you would be sitting pretty at a 10-bagger at $250, 6 years later. But if you had purchased it in March 2014 at $265 you’d be about even, two years later. Twice in the past couple of years TSLA stock raised to $275, while slamming back to $140-180 in just 6 months, both times. Tesla in my opinion is not yet a good long term investment.
Part of the reasons is that good long term investments are based on “fundamental” analysis of stocks. Fundamental analysis is based on analyzing the characteristics of a company in order to estimate its “value:” high earnings, income, high profit margins, and small debt are what investors are looking for. According to a recent thestreet.com article, “Tesla Motors has a ‘sell’ rating and a letter grade of D+ at TheStreet Ratings because of the company’s deteriorating net income, generally high debt management risk, disappointing return on equity, poor profit margins and feeble earnings per share growth.”
So if I would not recommend TSLA stock as an investment, why would I even consider TSLA for my trades? Because TSLA is a wonderful stock to trade, not on the basis of “fundamental” analysis, but on the basis of “technical” analysis. In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The “value” of the company does not matter. Even just 10 years ago, trading on the basis of technical analysis was only for the pros: brokerage houses, money managers and hedge fund managers. Today individuals have access to tools, indicators, and “conditional” trades that make trading, and especially options trading, much easier and safer.
I consider myself a “swing” trader: I normally enter an option trade when at least 3 indicators are firing on all cylinders; I put conditional stops to lower my losses when the market goes against my trade, and get out of trades when indicators are turning negative.
Coming up
It turns out that TSLA is a fairly good “swing” stock, where the above methodology has worked well in the past. In the next few weeks, while covering the news about the company that can affect its stock price, I will introduce some of the tools, indicators and techniques that any trader can use to profit on TSLA. You’ll hear names like moving averages, pay-day cycles, MACD indicator, Heikin-Ashi charts, support and resistance lines. You will see that none of these are rocket science.
I will write a column, a couple of times a week, providing TSLA stock analysis, information on investing and trading TSLA stock and options, and covering TSLA earnings and all rumors and news that can affect the stock.
Now back to the Ferrari. The F355 Spider that I purchased in 1996 was priced at $137,000, had a top speed of 183mph, 375hp, 268lb-ft torque, and performed 0-60mph in 4.5s and the quarter mile in 12.9s.
The Tesla Model S P90D (Insane) I purchased in 2015 has a very similar price, $142,000, but with a top speed of 155mph, 691hp, 713lb-ft torque, and performs 0-60mph in 3.1s and the quarter mile in 11.7s. The Tesla sedan beats the Ferrari in all but the top speed rating.
But while you needed a Formula 1 driver to obtain those numbers in the Ferrari, mainly to change the gears at the exact right time, effectively anyone can get the Tesla numbers just by flooring the accelerator. The only thing I miss from the Ferrari is the “roar” of the engine; for everything else the Tesla is so much more fun.
Disclosure: I currently have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but I may plan to initiate positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Teslarati). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call: The most important points
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call highlighted improving margins, record energy performance, expanding autonomy efforts, and a sharp acceleration in AI and robotics investments.
Executives, including CEO Elon Musk, discussed how the company is positioning itself for growth across vehicles, energy, AI, and robotics despite near-term pressures from tariffs, pricing, and macro conditions.
Key takeaways
Tesla reported sequential improvement in automotive gross margins excluding regulatory credits, rising from 15.4% to 17.9%, supported by favorable regional mix effects despite a 16% decline in deliveries. Total gross margin exceeded 20.1%, the highest level in more than two years, even with lower fixed-cost absorption and tariff impacts.
The energy business delivered standout results, with revenue reaching nearly $12.8 billion, up 26.6% year over year. Energy gross profit hit a new quarterly record, driven by strong global demand and high deployments of MegaPack and Powerwall across all regions, as noted in a report from The Motley Fool.
Tesla also stated that paid Full Self-Driving customers have climbed to nearly 1.1 million worldwide, with about 70% having purchased FSD outright. The company has now fully transitioned FSD to a subscription-based sales model, which should create a short-term margin headwind for automotive results.
Free cash flow totaled $1.4 billion for the quarter. Operating expenses rose by $500 million sequentially as well.
Production shifts, robotics, and AI investment
Musk further confirmed that Model S and Model X production is expected to wind down next quarter, and plans are underway to convert Fremont’s S/X line into an Optimus robot factory with a capacity of one million units.
Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet has surpassed 500 vehicles, operating across the Bay Area and Austin, with Musk noting a rapid monthly expansion pace. He also reiterated that CyberCab production is expected to begin in April, following a slow initial S-curve ramp before scaling beyond other vehicle programs.
Looking ahead, Tesla expects its capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion next year, thanks to the company’s operations across its six factories, the expansion of its fleet expansion, and the ramp of its AI compute. Additional investments in AI chips, compute infrastructure, and future in-house semiconductor manufacturing were discussed but are not included in the company’s current CapEx guidance.
More importantly, Tesla ended the year with a larger backlog than in recent years. This is supported by record deliveries in smaller international markets and stronger demand across APAC and EMEA. Energy backlog remains strong globally as well, though Tesla cautioned that margin pressure could emerge from competition, policy uncertainty, and tariffs.
Investor's Corner
LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call follows the release of the company’s Q4 and full-year 2025 update letter.
Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings call follows the release of the company’s Q4 and full-year 2025 update letter, which was published on Tesla’s Investor Relations website after markets closed on January 28, 2025.
The results cap a quarter in which Tesla produced more than 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products. For the full year, Tesla produced 1.65 million vehicles and delivered 1.63 million, while total energy storage deployments reached 46.7 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Results
According to Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP earnings per share of $0.24 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 in the fourth quarter. Total revenue for Q4 came in at $24.901 billion, while GAAP net income was reported at $840 million.
For full-year 2025, Tesla reported GAAP EPS of $1.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 per share. Total revenue reached $94.83 billion, including $69.53 billion from automotive operations and $12.78 billion from the company’s energy generation and storage business. GAAP net income for the year totaled $3.79 billion.
Earnings call updates
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.
16:25 CT – Good day to everyone, and welcome to another Tesla earnings call live blog. There’s a lot to unpack from Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter, so I’m pretty sure this earnings call will be quite interesting.
16:30 CT – The Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call officially starts. IR exec Travis Axelrod opens the call. Elon and other executives are present.
16:30 CT – Elon makes his opening statement and explains why Tesla changed its mission to “Amazing Abundance.” “With the continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we’re headed towards a future of universal high income,” Musk said, adding that along the way, Tesla will still be improving its products while keeping the environment safe and healthy.
16:34 CT – Elon noted that the first steps for this future are happening this year, thanks to Tesla’s autonomy and robotics programs, which will be launching and ramping this year. He also highlighted that Tesla will be making major investments this year, though the company will be very strategic when it comes to its funding. “I think it makes a ton of strategic sense,” Musk said.
16:36 CT – Elon also announces the end of the Model S and Model X programs “with an honorable discharge.” If you’re interested in buying a Model S or X, it’s best to do it now, Musk said. The Model S and Model X factory in Fremont will be replaced by an Optimus line. “It’s slightly sad, but it is time to bring the S and X program to an end. It’s part of our overall shift to an autonomous future,” Musk said.
16:38 CT – Elon discusses how Unsupervised FSD is now starting for the Robotaxi service. He noted that these Unsupervised Robotaxis don’t have any chase cars as of yesterday. He reiterated Tesla’s plans for owners to be able to add their own vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet. Autonomy target for the end of the year is about a quarter or half of the United States, Musk said.
16:41 CT – Elon noted that the Tesla Energy team is absolutely killing it. He also stated that Tesla expects its Energy business to continue growing, and that the “solar opportunity is underrated.”
16:43 CT –Elon also added that Tesla Optimus 3 will be unveiled in about three months, probably. The Model S and Model X line in Fremont will be a million-unit Optimus production line. Looks like Optimus is really coming out of the gate with large, meaningful volumes. “The normal S curve for manufacturing ramps is longer for Optimus,” Musk stated. “Long term, I think Optimus will have a significant impact on the US GDP.”
16:44 CT – Elon closes his opening statements with a sincere thanks to the Tesla team. He also noted that he feels fortunate to be able to work alongside such a talented workforce.
Elon ends his opening remarks with an optimistic prediction about the future.“The future is more exciting than you can imagine,” he concluded.
16:47 CT – Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja makes his opening remarks. He discusses several aspects of Tesla’s Q4 milestones. He noted that Tesla Energy achieved yet another gross profit record during the fourth quarter. There’s insane demand for the Megapack and Powerwall. Backlogs for these products are healthy this 2026. He also noted that Tesla ended 2025 with a bigger vehicle order backlog compared to recent years.
16:53 CT – Investor questions from Say begin. The first question is about Tesla’s expectations for the Robotaxi Network. Lars Moravy noted that it has the advantage of manufacturing and scale, and Tesla believes that the Robotaxi Network will significantly grow year over year. Elon highlighted that the Cybercab will be produced with no steering wheel or pedals. No fallback. Elon also noted that Tesla expects to produce more Cybercabs than all its other vehicles combined in the future.
16:51 CT – The next question is if Tesla still expects to launch new models, such as affordable cars. Lars Moravy noted that Tesla did release affordable variants last year, and Tesla is still pushing hard to lower its costs. That being said, Tesla is really pushing the Cybercab as its total addressable market is larger than consumer-owned cars. Lars also mentioned that Tesla will produce different vehicles for its Robotaxi services.
16:56 CT – Elon noted that eventually, Tesla will produce mostly autonomous cars. The exception would be the next-generation Roadster, which will be a true driver’s car.
17:03 CT – A question about Elon’s past comments about a potential next pickup truck was asked. Lars noted that the Cybertruck is still performing well in the electric pickup truck segment, though Tesla is known for flexibility. Elon added that Tesla will be transitioning the Cybertruck line to a fully autonomous vehicle line. He also stated that the Cybertruck is a useful vehicle. “An autonomous Cybertruck will be useful for that.”
17:10 CT – A question was asked about when FSD will be 100% Unsupervised. Elon noted that 100% Unsupervised FSD is already being used today, though only in the Austin Robotaxi program. Tesla is still being extremely careful with its rollout.
When asked about Tesla’s chip program, Elon noted that he feels pretty good about Tesla’s chip strategy. But in terms of selling Tesla’s chips outside Tesla, the company has to make sure it has enough chips for Optimus robots, data centers, and other programs first.
17:18 CT – Analyst questions begin. First up is Wolf Research. He asks about Tesla’s increasing Capex, specifically where the majority of it is going. The Tesla CFO noted that programs in six factories are going live this year, so that consumes Capex. The Optimus program also consumes a lot of resources. The growth of Tesla’s current capacity is also consuming a lot of resources. As for how these programs will be funded, the CFO pointed to Tesla’s massive war chest, as well as initiatives such as the Robotaxi Network.
17:21 CT – Morgan Stanley asks about Tesla’s xAI investment. The analyst asked about more information about how Tesla and xAI will work together. The CFO noted that this investment is part of Master Plan Part IV. Elon also mentioned some advantages for xAI’s technology for Tesla’s products, like Grok being used to manage a Robotaxi fleet or a group of Optimus robots.
17:24 CT – Barclays asks Elon about the constraints on memory. Does Tesla have any near term constraints for Tesla vehicles’ memory? Elon responded that the Tesla AI computer is already very compute and memory-efficient. The intelligence per gigabyte is important. Musk noted that Tesla is ahead of the industry by an order of magnitude or more.
17:29 CT – Cannacord asks about startups from China entering the humanoid market. What competitive advantage does Optimus have compared to these rivals? Elon stated that he believes China will be a key competitor in the humanoid robot market. China will be the toughest competitor for Tesla. That being said, Elon noted that Tesla believes Optimus will be ahead in real-world intelligence, electromechanical dexterity, and hand design.
Investor's Corner
Tesla (TSLA) Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q4 and FY 2025 earnings results in an update letter. The document was posted on the electric vehicle maker’s official Investor Relations website after markets closed today, January 28, 2025.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings come on the heels of a quarter where the company produced over 434,000 vehicles, delivered over 418,000 vehicles, and deployed 14.2 GWh of energy storage products.
For the Full Year 2025, Tesla produced 1,654,667 and delivered 1,636,129 vehicles. The company also deployed a total of 46.7 GWh worth of energy storage products.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results
As could be seen in Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 Update Letter, the company posted GAAP EPS of $0.24 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 per share in the fourth quarter. Tesla also posted total revenues of $24.901 billion. GAAP net income is also listed at $840 million in Q4.
Analyst consensus for Q4 has Tesla earnings per share falling 38% to $0.45 with revenue declining 4% to $24.74 billion, as per estimates from FactSet. In comparison, the consensus compiled by Tesla last week forecasted $0.44 per share on sales totaling $24.49 billion.
For FY 2025, Tesla posted GAAP EPS of $1.08 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.66 per share. Tesla also posted total revenues of $94.827 billion, which include $69.526 billion from automotive and $12.771 billion from the battery storage business. GAAP net income is also listed at $3.794 billion in FY 2025.
xAI Investment
Tesla entered an agreement to invest approximately $2 billion to acquire Series E preferred shares in Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, as part of the company’s recently disclosed financing round. Tesla said the investment was made on market terms consistent with those agreed to by other participants in the round.
The investment aligns with Tesla’s strategy under Master Plan Part IV, which centers on bringing artificial intelligence into the physical world through products and services. While Tesla focuses on real-world AI applications, xAI is developing digital AI platforms, including its Grok large language model.
Below is Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 update letter.
TSLA-Q4-2025-Update by Simon Alvarez
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Rumored SpaceX-xAI merger gets apparent confirmation from Elon Musk
