Investor's Corner
Tesla buyers eye new EV bill that extends $7500 tax credit and removes 200k cap
A bill to remove the 200,000-vehicle cap for electric car manufacturers and extend the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs until 2028 gained more supporters recently, with Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) and Rep. James P. McGovern (D-MA) signing as cosponsors of H.R.6274, also known as the Electric CARS Act of 2018.
The Electric CARS Act of 2018 was initially proposed by Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) on June 28, 2018, right at the time when Tesla was closing in on delivering its 200,000th vehicle in the United States. Under H.R.6274, the present $7,500 tax credit given to buyers of new electric cars would be extended all the way up to 2028. Electric car makers such as Tesla would also not be faced with the 200,000-vehicle limit that triggers a tax credit phase-out. Tax credits will also be given for the electric cars’ charging stations.
While a 10-year extension of the $7,500 tax credit is a welcome improvement over the previous system, what is really quite impressive with H.R.6274 is the fact that buyers of electric cars would be able to use the amount as a direct rebate for their vehicles upon purchase. This means that car buyers could get an immediate discount for their vehicle, instead of waiting until taxes are filed before receiving their electric car’s $7,500 tax credit. Such a system would make quality electric cars such as the Standard Range RWD Tesla Model 3, which is priced at $35,000 before options, attainable to an even bigger demographic.
When Congressman Welch unveiled H.R.6274 last June, he noted that the United States must transition to a form of transportation that reduces greenhouse emissions in the country.
“Transportation is the single largest contributor to greenhouse emissions in the United States. It is urgent that we transition to cleaner, more efficient modes of transportation. We are in a race for the winner of the technology for electric vehicles, and this credit is going to help spur that,” he said.
Rep. Welch reiterated these points in a recent interview with Alex Guberman of YouTube’s E for Electric channel, where he discussed his motivations for H.R.6274. According to Rep. Welch, the demand for electric cars and a recognition for change in transportations is emerging, and the benefits won’t stop there.
“What I am seeing is, among some of my colleagues, a recognition that the people they represent want an electric vehicle. And, there is real potential job growth if we can give a boost to the electric vehicle industry,” Welch said.
The Electric CARS Act of 2018 currently has four cosponsors, with Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) and Rep. James P. McGovern (D-MA) joining Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) and Rep. Jacky Rosen(D-NV), who supported the bill the day it was proposed. As of date, H.R.6274 has been referred to the House Committee of Ways and Means.
Tesla recently announced that it has sold its 200,000th vehicle in the United States this July. With the announcement, the $7,500 tax credit under the current system is now on a phase-out period, with buyers who receive their vehicles until the end of Q4 2018 being the final batch of Tesla owners who would be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit. After December, the federal tax credit is set to be reduced by half to $3,750 from Q1 to Q2 2019, followed by another reduction to $1,875 from Q3 to Q4 2019. Under the current system, Tesla’s vehicles delivered after Q4 2019 would not be eligible for any tax credits at all.
Watch Rep. Peter Welch’s interview in E for Electric in the video below.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
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Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
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“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
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