Elon Musk joined a doomsday discussion yesterday saying Earth’s population problems could push us to our ultimate demise.
The world's population is accelerating towards collapse, but few seem to notice or care
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 6, 2017
Musk was responding to an article that appeared in New Scientist that looked at Japan — a country facing declined fertility rates and a life expectancy in the mid-80s — as a microcosm for what the world could face someday.
Japan currently has a fertility rate of just 1.4 children per woman, and the Japan Times reported on a survey that indicates that nearly half of Japan’s young people are virgins.
The article argues that future turmoil could stem not from a meltdown in sustainable food resources, but rather a population that is unable to replace itself.
Population replacement is as significant as a potential “Malthusian meltdown” in that as older generations grow, things like innovation could decline and economies could become more recession-prone.
As reported by CNBC, both Germany and Italy fall victim to this potential problem, with the potential for both of their populations to halve in the next 60 years.
Theorists have long pontificated on the possibility of a global meltdown that would stem from environmental impact, food shortages or even human violence.
Regardless of the reason, Musk has made it his own personal goal to find sustainable options for future human existence. His companies Tesla and SpaceX, and their mission to provide an optimistic future for energy consumptions and human-beings, reflect that.
Musk’s latest tweet is not out of character — the space-age CEO has been known to talk at length about Earth’s bleak future, declining energy infrastructure and even the possibility of human existence stemming from an AI computer program.
As SpaceX launches forward with plans to reach and colonize Mars, and NASA gets a much-needed reboot under Vice President Mike Pence’s new National Space Council, hopefully humans will have future options for survival.
However, it’s hard not to consider the possibility that future spacecraft could be empty, another victim of a population unable to replace itself.
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Can one drive a TESLA MS 90D on Mars?
Case closed.
There are plenty of people..good thing too.. as the 1973 movie "Soylent Green " foretells.. once the oceans inevitably die off. the main food source will be those very same people.
20900 gasoline and tailpipe exhaust free miles on my 2016 TESLA MS 90D
Fueled and energy offset by 100 % homegrown solar pv.
I have no interest in going to Mars at all.
(...)
There are plenty of people..good thing too.. as the 1973 movie "Soylent Green " foretells.. once the oceans inevitably die off. the main food source will be those very same people.
(...)
Joe, maybe I'm getting tired... yet R U really saying that if the oceans were to dry off, you think it would be a good thing that we can start eating the excess people..?!?! :confused::confused::confused:
Hello, SpaceX? What's your availability for 20 seats on October 19, 2027 (yes, I have a large family now, yet it's likely to be even larger by then! ;)) for a one-way trip to Mars? Yeah, Coach will do, unless you have room in Economy Plus...! :D
Does art imitate life? Or does life intimate art?
Star Trek had a flip phone in 1969.. it took almost 40 years for that to be replicated by life..
Given the same time frame from 1973.. the planet is smack in the range of an identical realization. . The oceans will possibly warm till photo plankton can't take it and die.. one by one each dependent species will fail in turn.. all life came from the ocean..
With all the interest in movies and entertainment? with zombies, vampires, cannibalism, the population is ripe for acceptance if there's no other choice.
I know.. pretty ugly... but entirely possible..
Mars may be the only escape option for civilization.
Sweet dreams!
Detroit - since 1970, 2 of 3 people left. Yes, only 1/3 of the 1970 population.
Current generation, burdened with Student Loan debts, housing twice European costs, can they afford a family?
But that is just the US.
For Actual world wide trends, I suggest
http://www.gapminder.org/
You'll learn many interesting things.
These trips to Mars won't filter down to the masses for a long , long time.. ( unless slave or prison labor is required )
And yes.. I think Elon is preparing to scoot planet earth so his legacy can continue on .. with other properly prepared and well suited individuals of the higher ilk..
Did anyone see "Knowing" ?
Rumor has it Elon saw it 10 times... (wonder if Nicholas Cage can grab a seat) hehehe
Elon Musk caters to the 2% as a general rule.. most products are well out of the financial means of typical ordinary folk (...)
Well, as of last Friday, with the official start of Model ≡ commercial production, that is about to change... ;)
Now as far as the timing of affordability of future mass trips to Mars (don't you like the sound of that...? :d), I would concur the jury is still out... :p
Taylor - how to explain?
Detroit - since 1970, 2 of 3 people left. Yes, only 1/3 of the 1970 population.
Current generation, burdened with Student Loan debts, housing twice European costs, can they afford a family?
But that is just the US.
For Actual world wide trends, I suggest
http://www.gapminder.org/
You'll learn many interesting things.
Hans Rosling was a very useful source for population study. I'm sorry he recently passed away. The world will miss his talks.
The issue of low birth rate (Japan etc) will cause this sector of the population to decrease. The Detroit problem is people moving away for better economic opportunity and has little or no effect on total population.
Due to various sectors of the population (Africa) increasing due to high birth rate, and the world wide increase due to the longer life span as so well explained by Hans R, we will expect a population of 10 to 12 billion before things stabilize. At this point we may see reduced birthrates letting our population slowly reduce to 6 billion (or whatever population level is sustainable) before once again matching the replacement rate (one for one) of a stable population. This sort of reduction will be very slow and take several generations.
Notice that we could also see space colonies that can take some small level of initial population.
My confidence in this projection is based on the knowledge that most people will do the right things to ensure the survival of their species if given the opportunity to do so without facing heavy levels of sacrifice. (On average, you will not have six children if you are confident your first two will survive).
As population in one area gets too high, people will stop having so many children or move away.
As population in one area gets too low, people will start having more children and more people will move in.
China's fertility has dramatically gone down and many people immigrate away. Same thing is happening in India.
I expect more people to move into Japan and for Japan to start having more children in the coming decades.
A sustainable world population is between one and six billion depending on how our food is produced and how much recycling we commit to doing.
Seeing some areas begin to reduce population is a good start on reducing the excessive population we have produced so a very slow reduction from the 10 billion can occur. When our population once again reaches a “sustainable level” people will be motivated to produce children and the population will stabilize.
Seeing some areas begin to reduce population is a good start on reducing the excessive population we have produced so a very slow reduction from the 10 billion can occur.
Completely agree. The actual risks from population decline are significantly overblown, imho, due primarily to worry about unsustainable economic policies forcing continued consumption and growth which can easily be modified...compared to unsustainable overpopulation crises which would truly make Earth hellish due to resource shortages, drought, famine, massive population migration, sea level rise, and war.
Any indicators of a slight decrease in the acceleration of human population on Earth is a welcome indicator for me, as we are already way over the sustainable total population for this planet and NEED to get back down to 4-6 billion at most for this planet to have a future.
After all, a bell curve has tails at both ends. We just might be at the high point of a bell curve.
