Investor's Corner
Elon Musk signs agreement for Tesla factory in China with 500k vehicle capacity
Elon Musk has signed a preliminary agreement with the Shanghai government to build a Tesla factory in China. According to reports, the upcoming China factory will be capable of manufacturing 500,000 vehicles per year, rivaling the output of Tesla’s main electric car plant in Fremont, CA.
Reports of Musk’s trip to China emerged yesterday after people familiar with the proceedings revealed that the Tesla CEO will be at an “event” in Shanghai on Tuesday, followed by a visit to Beijing sometime on Wednesday or Thursday. Few other details were provided about Musk’s trip to China, though pictures emerged on social media on Tuesday revealing that the Tesla CEO briefly stopped over in Thailand to drop off the minisub he and SpaceX engineers designed to help rescue the remaining 5 members of the stranded soccer team in the Tham Luang Nang Non cave complex. Reports of Musk’s signing of an agreement with the Shanghai government emerged soon after.
$TSLA CEO @elonmusk in Shanghai after signing agreement to build Tesla plant in China. pic.twitter.com/5qX85rQcPw
— Phil LeBeau (@Lebeaucarnews) July 10, 2018
Tesla’s upcoming China factory is a key component to the company’s attempts at breaching the world’s largest market for electric vehicles. Amidst the ongoing trade war with the United States, China has opted to place steep tariffs on vehicles imported from abroad, including Tesla’s electric cars. With the new taxes in place, Tesla was forced to raise the prices of its Model S luxury sedan and its Model X SUV by 150,000 yuan ($22,647) to 250,000 yuan ($37,744).
-->With its own facility in the country, Tesla would be able to bypass China’s steep tariffs regardless of the presence of a trade war. In a previous statement during an earnings call last year, Musk remarked that a factory in China is pretty much the only way for Tesla to rival the price of local electric car manufacturers such as BYD. Musk further noted that a China facility, if and when it does get built, would likely be tasked with the production of the Model Y crossover SUV, a vehicle that is estimated to see a demand of up to 1 million units per year. Apart from the Model Y, Musk further noted that some of the Model 3 would probably be manufactured in the China facility as well.
Tesla’s approval for its China site from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. [Credit: vincent13031925/Twitter]
Tesla was able to capitalize on China’s adjustments to its ownership laws that were implemented earlier this year. Prior to the US and China’s ongoing trade dispute, the Asian economic superpower removed ownership restrictions for facilities owned by foreign companies. This opened the way for Tesla to get an approval for a solely-owned facility in the country. Just recently, an image of Tesla’s approval for its China site from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emerged online, giving yet another sign that the facility is likely to break ground soon.
Tesla’s success in the world’s largest market for electric cars will likely be dependent on how the company could target the greater Chinese auto industry with its lower-priced vehicles. While the Model S and Model X are currently seen as status symbols for the successful and wealthy in the country, the luxury sedan and SUV nonetheless cater to the country’s upper class, which represents a much smaller market. With vehicles such as the Model Y and the Model 3 saturating China as well, Tesla could tap into the country’s ever-growing mainstream electric car market, which is on pace to hit a milestone of 1 million EVs sold in 2018.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominate China’s real-world efficiency tests
