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Elon Musk says SpaceX could catch Crew Dragon and NASA astronauts with a giant net
Shortly after SpaceX flawlessly completed Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test earlier today, CEO Elon Musk – speaking at a post-launch press conference – revealed that SpaceX wants to try to catch future Dragon spacecraft with the same ships – and giant nets – it uses to recover Falcon fairings.
This is not the first time Musk has mentioned such a plan. Back in February 2018, he noted that SpaceX ship Mr. Steven (now Ms. Tree), designed to catch parasailing fairing halves out of the air, “might be able to do the same thing with Dragon — if NASA wants us to, we can try to catch Dragon.” The motivation behind catching Dragon – instead of fishing it out of the Atlantic Ocean – is effectively the same reason that SpaceX is trying to routinely catch Falcon fairings: it’s much easier to reuse aerospace hardware that hasn’t been dunked and soaked in saltwater.
Of course, Musk cautioned that SpaceX would only pursue Dragon catches if NASA were open to the idea – the space agency’s conservatism is already largely responsible for the death of propulsive Crew Dragon landing, also intended to make spacecraft reuse much easier. Additionally, the CEO qualified his comments by noting that SpaceX would attempt to catch Crew Dragon only after Falcon fairing halves are being routinely and reliably caught.
As it turns out, both fairing recovery ships Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief are set to attempt their second simultaneous fairing catch less than 48 hours from now.
Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief actually departed their Port Canaveral home berths on the evening of January 18th, barely 12 hours before Falcon 9 B1046 lifted off for fourth and final time and was sacrificed for a thankfully flawless Crew Dragon abort test. The fast recovery ships – each outfitted with a giant net – are scheduled to attempt their second-ever simultaneous recovery of both halves of a Falcon 9 payload fairing.
Barely 48 hours after Crew Dragon’s IFA test, SpaceX has another Falcon 9 launch scheduled to lift off as early as 11:59 am EST (16:59 UTC) on Monday, January 21st. The mission will be SpaceX’s second Starlink satellite launch and third launch overall this month and is set to place the fourth batch of 60 Starlink internet satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO). Like all SpaceX satellite launches, the mission – Starlink V1 L3 or the third launch of Starlink v1.0 spacecraft – will feature a standard Falcon 9 fairing.
Around three minutes after liftoff, said fairing will separate into its two halves, deploying from the top of Falcon 9 and beginning a 100+ km (63+ mi) journey back to Earth. For SpaceX’s unique payload fairing, that journey includes reorienting with cold-gas thrusters, deploying a GPS-guided parafoil, and attempting to gently land in a giant net carried on the back off a ship.
Thus far, SpaceX has attempted to catch Falcon fairing halves nine separate times, resulting in two successful catches in June and August 2019. Two subsequent catch attempts in December 2019 and January 2020 were unsuccessful, a strong sign that SpaceX still has a ways to go before fairing catches are as routine and reliable as Falcon booster recovery.
As such, it’s unlikely that Ms. Tree or Ms. Chief will be catching Crew or Cargo Dragon capsules anytime soon. Still, it’s increasingly clear that every fairing catch attempt will also represent a potential step towards the goal of keeping Dragons and the NASA astronauts they’ll carry as dry as possible.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
