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Famed hedge fund betting against Tesla reports massive loss to customers, Elon Musk trolls with gift offering

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David Einhorn, a staunch Tesla critic and owner of Greenlight Capital fund, revealed on Tuesday that his bet against the electric car maker resulted in heavy losses for his firm during the first half of 2018. In Q2 alone, Greenlight Capital lost 5.4%, bringing the fund’s losses from January to June to 18.3%.

In a letter to investors acquired by Reuters on Tuesday, Einhorn revealed that his stance against Tesla aggravated Greenlight’s grim returns. During the second quarter, Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 29%, becoming the hedge fund’s “second biggest loser.” Einhorn later added in a later note that the fund’s returns fell 0.4% more in July, bringing Greenlight’s total losses to 18.6% for the year.

Einhorn, who leased a Model S, has pushed the notion that Tesla’s electric cars are unreliable and even dangerous, while criticizing the California-based company’s cash burn. Despite his complaints, as well as increasingly negative media coverage on Tesla and Elon Musk, the company’s stock has remained strong, turning Einhorn’s short bet into substantial losses. In his letter to investors, the hedge fund owner admitted that mistakes had been made, and Greenlight’s returns over the past three years have been “far worse than we could have imagined.” Due to the fund’s performance, Einhorn revealed that some investors have run out of patience and asked for their money back.

Regardless of his fund’s losses, Einhorn still maintains his short position against Tesla, stating that he doubts the Model 3 could be “produced profitably anytime soon, if ever.” Einhorn also criticized Tesla’s ongoing initiatives to rush the Model 3 to reservation holders, as well as Elon Musk’s “erratic and desperate” behavior on social media.

“Right now the market is telling us we are wrong, wrong, wrong about nearly everything. We wonder whether surge production techniques to support self-congratulatory tweets are economically efficient ways of ramping production, or whether customers will be happy with the quality of a car rush through production to prove a point to short sellers. The most striking feature of the quarter is that Elon Musk appears erratic and desperate,” Einhorn wrote.

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The Greenfield Capital owner also wrote in his letter that he has already made moves to stem the firm’s losses. Einhorn, for one, stated that he had covered most of the firm’s short position on Netflix Inc. between January and April. He also exited a bet on Resona Holdings, a Japanese bank, while selling Dillard’s at a loss. Furthermore, Einhorn covered a 5-year bet against Elekta AB with a small gain.

In response to reports of Einhorn opting not to renew his Model S’ lease, Tesla CEO Elon Musk fired off a tweet trolling the hedge fund owner.

Tesla is set to release its Q2 financial report after markets close today, followed by an earnings call at 2:30 p.m. PST (5:30 p.m. EST). Consensus among Wall Street analysts suggests that Tesla would be reporting a loss of $2.81 per share, as well as a revenue of around $3.97 billion. Tesla is also expected to release figures about the Model 3’s ongoing ramp and delivery guidance for the rest of the year, considering that the company has recently crossed the 200,000-vehicle mark that triggers a phase-out period for the $7,500 federal tax credit granted to buyers of new electric cars.

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As Tesla heads into what could very well be an earnings call signifying a turning point for the company, reports have also emerged from sources that the electric car maker plans to invest $5 billion to construct Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. Tesla is reportedly looking to raise funds in China to finance a portion of the investment needed for the factory, which is expected to start producing vehicles by 2020.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

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Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

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Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla analyst’s firm has sold its entire TSLA position: Here’s why

Tesla analyst Gary Black revealed his firm, The Future Fund, has sold their entire $TSLA holding.

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tesla showroom
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla analyst Gary Black of The Future Fund revealed today that his firm has sold its entire $TSLA holding, marking the first time since 2021 that it has not had a position in the company’s stock.

Black has been a skeptic of the company and relatively pessimistic regarding some things many investors would consider catalysts, outlining his concerns and reasoning for selling the shares.

Much of Black’s reasoning concerns Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio, delivery results and potential delivery figures for the future, and other near-term projects that he does not believe will yield as much value as others perceive.

We will break down each concern of Black’s below:

‘Disconnected from Underlying Fundamentals’

Black says that The Future Fund sold its holdings at $358 per share. The firm’s current price target is at $310, and he says it will remain there based on “our forecast of 2030 Tesla volumes of 5.4m and 2030 Adj EPS of $12.

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Main Concern is P/E Ratio

The main concern Black and The Future Fund have is that TSLA “now sells at a 2025 P/E of 188x as earnings estimates continue to fall (-5% in the past week, -40% YTD) driven by weak YTD deliveries, including weak April results.”

Black says he believes quarterly deliveries will decline by 12 percent, and full-year by 10 percent.

This compares to Wall Street’s estimates of a 7 percent decrease for Q2 and a 5 percent year-over-year.

Robotaxi Skepticism

“We believe the risk/reward associated with the Austin robotaxi test remain asymmetrical to the downside,” Black writes in his post on X.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

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Many believe the Robotaxi platform could be Tesla’s biggest catalyst moving forward, especially as other automakers do not seem to have even close to as robust a solution to self-driving as Tesla.

Tesla’s Affordable Models

Black says there are concerns the affordable model will be “a stripped-down Model Y priced lower and funded by lower costs rather than a new form factory that expands TAM.”

This is confusing, especially considering the cheaper price tag would expand the total addressable market (TAM) to begin with. The Model Y has been the best-selling vehicle in the world for the past two years.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

Introducing an even lower-cost model with some missing features would still likely be a significantly more attractive option than a base model ICE vehicle, especially because the value Full Self-Driving provides would make the car more beneficial.

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“This increases odds that FY’25 estimates decline further, risking a repeat of 2023-2024, when TSLA reduced EV prices supported by lower costs, and TSLA saw little or no incremental volume growth,” he finishes with.

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Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

Tesla is set to win big from the launch of the Robotaxi platform, Wedbush’s Dan Ives said.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to kick off its own “golden age of autonomous growth” as its Robotaxi platform nears launch and a “dark chapter” for the company has evidently come to a close, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Ives has jostled his price target on Tesla shares a few times already this year, usually switching things up as the market sways and the company’s near-term outlook changes. His price target on Tesla has gone from $550 to $315 to $350 back to $500 this year, with the newest adjustment coming from a note released early on Friday.

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As CEO Elon Musk has essentially started to dwindle down his commitment to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) altogether, Ives believes that Tesla’s “dark chapter” has come to a close:

“First lets address the elephant in the room…2025 started off as a dark chapter for Musk and Tesla as Elon’s role in the Trump Administration and DOGE created a life of its own which created brand damage and a black cloud over the story….but importantly those days are in the rear-view mirror as we are now seeing a recommitted Musk leading Tesla as CEO into this autonomous and robotics future ahead with his days in the White House now essentially over.”

Ives believes Tesla’s launch of Robotaxi should be the company’s way to unlock at least $1 trillion in value alone, especially as the Trump White House will fast-track the key initiatives the automaker needs to get things moving in the right direction:

“The $1 trillion of AI valuation will start to get unlocked in the Tesla story and we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for TSLA over the next 12 to 18 months has now begun in our view with FSD and autonomous penetration of Tesla’s installed base and the acceleration of Cybercab in the US representing the golden goose.”

There are some concerns moving forward, but none of which relate to the AI/autonomous play that Ives primarily focuses on within the Friday note. Instead, they are related to demand in both Europe and Asia, as Ives said, “there is still wood to chop to turn around Model Y growth” in both of those markets.

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Nevertheless, the big focus for Ives is evidently the launch of Robotaxi and the potential of the entire autonomous division that Tesla plans to offer as a ride-sharing service in the coming months. Ives also believes a 50 percent or more penetration of Full Self-Driving could totally transform the financial model and margins of Tesla moving ahead.

Aware of the setbacks Tesla could encounter, Ives still believes that Tesla will establish itself as “the true autonomous winner over” and that investors will recognize the AI vision the company has been so bullish on.

Ives pushed his price target to $500. Tesla shares are down just under 1% at the time of publication. They are trading at $337.88 at 11:45 on the East Coast.

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