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How Tesla’s Semi-truck could disrupt the commercial trucking industry

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Tesla is already taking the world by storm with its fleet of consumer electric cars and the company’s push toward fully autonomous self-driving technology. Now, the Silicon Valley-based car maker and technology company has set its sights on the trucking industry, with the introduction of a fully electric semi-truck on the horizon. What will this mean to the trucking industry if Tesla succeeds?

Electric Semi-Trucks

With the official unveiling set for Oct. 26, Tesla fans and industry experts are speculating about the kind of impact its electric semi-truck could have on the commercial trucking industry as a whole.

The idea behind the Tesla Semi, which Elon Musk has affectionately called a “beast”, is to make it less expensive to operate than its gas and diesel counterparts on account of reduced maintenance, fuel, and insurance costs. This could result in operational cost reductions of 70% over existing trucks on the market, according to Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

Tesla has also gathered billion of miles of driving data from the Autopilot hardware that’s equipped on its latest Model S and Model X vehicles. Using this vast dataset, Tesla aims to create a detailed 3D map of the world that will increasingly become more detailed as fleet data is collected. This dataset allows Tesla’s Vision and artificial intelligence team to train complex algorithms for its Full Self-Driving technology, which will one day allow Tesla’s fleet of consumer vehicles and its upcoming semi-truck to recognize traffic indicators, identify pedestrians and, overall, operate on near-parity with human decision making, before exceeding it.

ASLO SEE: Tesla Autopilot and artificial intelligence: The unfair advantage

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Being able to offer this level of automation will be transformative for entire industries, including the commercial trucking segment. Companies that have traditionally built their shipping and logistics models based on human capabilities will be able to better manage their manpower costs, while increasing efficiency at safer levels across the organization through Tesla’s automation. Combined with the fact that a Tesla Semi will emit no tailpipe emissions, in a world where regulations on emission standards are becoming increasingly more strict and manufacturers are pushing to transition toward all-electric fleets, and the industry impact of Tesla’s semi-truck becomes even more clear.

Tesla’s Semi-truck spied ahead of its October 26, 2017 official unveiling event.

Execution

We’re still waiting for exact specifications for Tesla’s Semi like range and hauling capacity, but early reports by Reuters suggests that the electric truck will have a range between 200 and 300 miles. The relatively short range by long-haul trucking standards means that Tesla will likely target regional hauling. Any further than that would require a massive a battery that would be cost prohibitive for most companies looking to incorporate Tesla into its expense model.

Electric trucks might sound like a great innovation, but they aren’t without perils given current technology. First, electric trucks are going to require a new class of technicians to keep them primed and operating efficiently. Yes, Tesla cars are known to operate hundreds of thousands of miles without much trouble, but there’s no way to project how the wear and tear of the long haul will affect these new electric trucks.

Production will be the other big question. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is known to have an optimistic outlook when it comes to delivering his vision to the masses. But keeping to deadlines couldn’t be more important to a consumer and commercial goods industry that’s largely dependent on having a smooth running supply chain. Companies that commit to augmenting its business with a Tesla Semi or looking to transition in full to an all-electric fleet of trucks will certainly have less tolerance for delays than the general Model S, Model X, and  Model 3 consumer market. This is especially the case for publicly traded companies.

Tune in on Teslarati as we bring you coverage on all Tesla Semi developments. And be sure to follow us @Teslarati or like us on Facebook to see live behind the scenes coverage from the Tesla Semi event on October 26.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla “best positioned” for Trump tariffs among automakers: analyst

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

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Credit: Tesla

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently shared his thoughts about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) amidst the Trump administration’s tariffs. As per Ives, Tesla is best-positioned relative to its rivals when it comes to the ongoing tariff issue.

Ives has a price target of $315 per share for the electric vehicle maker.

Best Positioned

During an interview with Yahoo Finance, the segment’s hosts asked about his thoughts on Tesla, especially considering Musk’s work with the Trump administration. Musk has previously stated that the effects of tariffs on Tesla are significant due to parts that are imported from abroad.

“When it comes to the tariff issue, they are actually best positioned relative to the Detroit Big Three and others and obviously foreign automakers. Still impacted, Musk has talked about that, in terms of just auto parts,” Ives stated.

China and Musk

Ives also stated that ultimately, a big factor for Tesla in the coming months may be the Chinese market’s reactions to its tariff war. He also noted that the next few quarters will be pivotal for Tesla considering the brand damage that Elon Musk has incited due to his politics and work with the Trump administration.

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“When it comes to Tesla, I think the worry is where does retaliatory look like in China, in terms of buying domestic. I think that’s something that’s a play. And they have a pivotal six months head, in terms of what everything we see in Austin, autonomous, and the buildout. 

“But the brand issues that Musk self-inflicted is dealing with in terms of demand destruction in Europe and the US. And that’s why this is a key few quarters ahead for Tesla and also for Musk to make, in my opinion, the right decision to take a step back from the administration,” Ives noted.

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Tesla negativity “priced into the stock at its current levels:” CFRA analyst

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

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Credit: Tesla China

In recent comments to the Schwab Network, CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson stated that a lot of the “negative sentiment towards Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is priced into the stock at its current levels.”

The CFRA analyst has given Tesla a price target of $360 per share.

Q1 A Low Point in Sales

The CFRA analyst stated that Tesla’s auto sales likely bottomed last quarter, as noted in an Insider Monkey report. This was, Nelson noted, due to Q1 typically being the “weakest quarter for automakers.” He also highlighted that all four of Tesla’s vehicle factories across the globe were idled in the first quarter.

While Nelson highlighted the company’s changeover to the new Model Y as a factor in Q1, he also acknowledged the effects of CEO Elon Musk’s politics. The analyst noted that while Tesla lost customers due to Musk’s political opinions, the electric vehicle maker has also gained some new customers in the process.

CFRA’s Optimistic Stance

Nelson also highlighted that Tesla’s battery storage business has been growing steadily over the years, ending its second-best quarter in Q1 2025. The analyst noted that Tesla Energy has higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle business, and Tesla itself has a very strong balance sheet.

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The CFRA analyst also predicted that Tesla could gain market share in the United States because it has less exposure to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Teslas are the most American-made vehicles in the country, so the Trump tariffs’ effects on the company will likely be less notable compared to other automakers that produce their cars abroad.

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Tesla average transaction prices (ATP) rise in March 2025: Cox Automotive

Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

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Credit: Tesla/X

Data recently released from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book has revealed that electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 saw an increase in their average transaction price (ATP) in March 2025.

Cox Automotive’s findings were shared in a press release

March 2025 EV ATPs

As noted by Cox, new electric vehicle prices in March were estimated to be $59,205, a 7% increase year-over-year. In February, new EV prices had an ATP of $57,015. The average transaction price for electric vehicles was 24.7% higher than the overall auto industry ATP of $47,462.

As per Cox, “Compared to the overall industry ATP ($47,462), EV ATPs in March were higher by nearly 25% as the gap between new ICE and new EV grows wider. EV incentives continued to range far above the industry average. In March, the average incentive package for an EV was 13.3% of ATP, down from the revised 14.3% in February.”

Tesla ATPs in Focus

While Tesla saw challenges in the first quarter due to its factories’ changeover to the new Model Y, the company’s ATPs last month were estimated at $54,582, a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 4.5%. A potential factor in this could be the rollout of the Tesla Model Y Launch Series, a fully loaded, limited-edition variant of the revamped all-electric crossover that costs just under $60,000.

This increase, Cox noted, was evident in Tesla’s two best-selling vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover, the best-selling car globally in 2023 and 2024. “ATPs for Tesla’s two core models – Model 3 and Model Y – were higher month over month and year over year in March,” Cox wrote.

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Cox’s Other Findings

Beyond electric vehicles, Cox also estimated that new vehicle ATPs held steady month-over-month and year-over-year in March at $47,462, down slightly from the revised-lower ATP of $47,577 in February. Sales incentives in March were flat compared to February at 7% of ATP, though they are 5% higher than 2024, when incentives were equal to 6.7% of ATP. 

Estimates also suggest that new vehicle sales in March topped 1.59 million units, the best volume month in almost four years. This was likely due to consumers purchasing cars before the Trump administration’s tariffs took effect. As per Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox, all things are pointing to higher vehicle prices this summer. 

“All signs point to higher prices this summer, as existing ‘pre-tariff’ inventory is sold down to be eventually replaced with ‘tariffed’ inventory. How high prices rise for consumers is still very much to be determined, as each automaker will handle the price puzzle differently. Should the White House posture hold, our team is expecting new vehicles directly impacted by the 25% tariff to see price increases in the range of 10-15%,” Keating stated.

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