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LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q1 2023 earnings call

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Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) first quarter 2023 earnings call comes on the heels of the company’s Q1 2023 Update Letter. Tesla’s first quarter numbers were quite impressive, with the electric vehicle maker meeting EPS expectations despite posting lower gross margins during the quarter. 

A number of milestones were highlighted by Tesla in the first quarter. Tesla Giga Berlin was listed with a capacity of over 350,000 Model Y per year, and the FSD Beta program reached 150 million cumulative miles. The Cybertruck is also closer than ever to its first deliveries, with the all-electric pickup truck’s production line now being set up.

The following are live updates from Tesla’s Q1 2023 earnings call. I will be updating this article in real time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story. The first entry starts at the bottom of the page.

17:35 CDT – And that wraps up the Q1 2023 earnings call! Not gonna lie, this is one of the most info-heavy earnings calls to date, with lots of questions answered from both the investor and analyst sides. 

Once again, thanks for staying with us for yet another live blog! Until the next one!

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17:31 CDT – Following a question from Jefferies, who asked if there is a limit to the direct selling business to grow market share, Elon Musk notes that Tesla’s direct selling strategy seems to be working so far. And while the analyst brought up the issue of customers who may be missing human interactions for things like service, Musk noted that “the best service is no service.” He also noted that Tesla uses the feedback loop to improve car design so it needs less service.

17:29 CDT – Following a question from Barclays, who asked about the margin profile of Berlin and Austin and how it compares to Shanghai. Musk notes that Shanghai is well optimized, though Tesla expects Giga Berlin and Giga Texas to achieve good margins as well.

17:26 CDT – Following a question from Morgan Stanley, Tesla executives such as Elon Musk reiterated that the company doesn’t really think of competitors that much. Executives also noted that Tesla wants all EVs to succeed, as shown by the company opening its Supercharger Network to other brands. 

17:21 CDT – A question from Wolfe Research is asked, with the analyst asking about margins on Tesla’s lineup of services. 

Elon Musk reiterates that it’s hard to predict these things. Zachary Kirkhorn also cautioned investors not to be too caught up with the short-term, as Tesla typically adopts strategies designed for the long-term. In a way, gross margin levels only matter in terms of how Tesla will invest it in the following years.

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Elon Musk also noted that Tesla is in a unique position because Tesla can technically sell its cars for 0% profit now and yield it in other ways in the future (i.e. through autonomy). He notes that really, no other automaker can do that.

17:16 CDT – A question from Goldman Sachs is asked, with the analyst asking if Tesla is still seeing a 1.8 million target for this year, or will the company be going for 2 million. 

Elon Musk noted that from a production standpoint, at least, if things go well, Tesla has a shot at 2 million this year. That being said, Tesla feels comfortable with a target of 1.8 million vehicles for 2023.

17:10 CDT – A Baird analyst asks about Tesla’s programs such as Dojo and Optimus. Elon Musk notes that Dojo has a multi-billion dollar potential. “I look at Dojo as a long shot bet — but a long shot bet that could pay off in a very big way,” Musk said. 

He also mentioned upcoming projects such as heat pumps for homes and commercial offices. Musk noted, however, that such products are a “back-burner item.”

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Tesla also highlights the idea that there is no such thing as an “EV market share vs ICE.” Tesla sees it as a “car market” overall. “All cars will be EVs,” Musk said.

17:03 CDT – A Deutsche Bank analyst asks about specific ways Tesla could further monetize its products, such as the Robotaxi platform. 

Musk explains that the Robotaxi idea is quite a general term, though he reiterates that all vehicles with Hardware 3 could be a Robotaxi. The Robotaxi is also almost synonymous with Tesla’s next-generation vehicle. 

A question on automotive gross margins was asked. Kirkhorn noted that several factors contributed to Q1 2023 gross margin results. Elon Musk also mentioned interest rate, and uncertainty in the economy contributed to Q1 2023 results as well.

16:59 CDT – Cannacord asks about FSD take rates and if there are any significant positives and negatives. The analyst also asks if FSD pricing will also be dropping. 

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Elon Musk notes that this is a tricky question since the value of an autonomous car is enormous. He notes that improvements are dramatic, though it’s more of a “two steps forward, one step back” kind of progress. Musk jokes that he believes FSD will be achieved this year (for the nth time now). 

“The trend is very clearly towards full autonomy,” Musk said.

Tesla also highlighted that the company is not impacted by lithium pricing because it has contracts in place. After all, on the lithium front, at least, the chokepoint is refining capacity. The same extends to the refining of the cathode and anode materials.

Elon also begs — literally begs — everyone to go into refining, to much laughter from other executives.

16:51 CDT – The fifth investor question is asked: “How has global order intake tracked since the most recent round of price cuts?”

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“Orders are in excess of production,” Elon Musk said. 

The final question from investors is asked: “Can you give updated specs and pricing for Cybertruck, and any new features that will make it to production?”

Musk states that Tesla will save it for Cybertruck handover happening toward the end of Q3, though he also stated that the wait would be worth it.

“A product like this only comes only once in a while. It will not be disappointing at all,” Musk said.

16:49 CDT – The fourth investor question is asked: “What do you anticipate FY23 automotive gross margins (ex-credits) will be at the company’s current pricing levels?”

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Zachary Kirkhorn noted that it’s difficult to predict this at the moment, especially as Tesla is busy with projects such as the Giga Texas battery factory. So far, Giga Texas’ cost optimizations are focused on stabilizing production and lowering 4680 costs. “We see a pretty good projection for Austin factory,” Kirkhorn said, noting that Giga Berlin also has a lot of areas for cost reduction.

Kirkhon also expresses this thanks to Tesla’s supply chain team, though he also noted that commodities remains max pain point for Tesla.

16:45 CDT – Third investor question is asked: “How well are 4680 cells meeting the expectations described on battery day? How long will it be until the cells meet those goals?”

Austin’s 4680 battery cell facility is progressing well. A Tesla executive noted that Giga Texas’ 4680 factory would be 70% lower CAPEX when fully ramped. The lithium corpus christi refinery will also be breaking ground in May. Tesla also achieved a 25% reduction in COGS.

16:43 CDT – Second investor question is asked: “Do you still believe Tesla Energy will be bigger than auto and when will you provide more formal guidance on megapack and overall Tesla energy?”

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“I should just clarify, bigger than auto, from the standpoint of GWh deployed,” Musk said. So while Tesla Energy may not have the total revenue of the company’s automotive business, its battery deployments will be substantially larger. He also affirmed growth in line with expectations.

Zachary Kirkhorn also noted that it would be a few more quarters until Tesla publishes guidance on its Energy business.

16:40 CDT – First investor question is up: “What is the process to make auto pricing adjustments? What variables do you consider? How frequently do you review pricing?”

“We do our best to review the production output and macro conditions,” Musk said. 

16:39 CDT – Zachary Kirkorn congratulates the Tesla Energy team for a record quarter. “Our storage business is starting to take shape,” he said. He assures that automotive gross margins remain at healthy levels. He highlights the need to focus on cost efficiencies so that Tesla could achieve its goals.

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16:36 CDT – Elon Musk’s opening remarks were a recap of Q1. He highlights that the Model Y was the best-selling vehicle in Europe and it also performed amazingly in the United States. He states that Tesla’s operating margins are still among the highest in the industry. Musk also notes that Tesla is looking to make a lot of margins as the company perfects autonomy. 

“While we reduced the price significantly in Q1, our operating margins remain the best in the industry,” Musk said.

As for the Cybertruck, alpha versions are being built today. Volume production line is coming along nicely in Giga Texas. Delivery event for the Cybertruck will likely be set for Q3 2023. The demand for the Cybertruck is notable, Musk said, though it will take some time to get its manufacturing line down pat. 

Megapack is making breakthroughs, with the battery posting its best quarter ever in Q1. Goal is set at 40 GWh a year for now. He also highlights Tesla’s ramp for the Megapack, such as the start of a new Megafactory in Shanghai. 

As for FSD Beta, the program has reached 150 million miles. “This is a data advantage that really no one else has,” Musk said, adding that training data will be key in getting an advantage in the autonomous driving space. He notes that work on the Dojo supercomputer is still ongoing, and that the program would be advantageous in the future. “

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“I really think DOJO potential is really significant,” Musk said.

Musk also thanks Tesla’s global team for their milestones this quarter.

16:31 CDT – The earnings call begins! Tesla Head of Investor Relations Martin Viecha opens the call. Elon and other Tesla executives are present.

16:28 CDT – If there’s something quite interesting about this earnings call, it’s the fact that everything seems to be on time. That Update Letter was posted really quickly after markets closed today. Tesla bulls probably appreciate this, as it’s far less stressful than the long wait times for Update Letters several years ago. 

16:25 CDT – Looks like the livestream’s about to go live. To be fair, Tesla’s pretty cool for being so open with its earnings call livestreams. There’s one in YouTube and one on Twitter. Here’s the Twitter one.

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16:15 CDT – Hi everyone, and welcome to yet another live blog! Tesla’s Q1 numbers are pretty much in line with what TSLA bulls expected. Gross margins took a hit, but that’s understandable because of the company’s aggressive pricing strategy. Tesla’s war chest remains impressive though, at $22.4 billion.

Here’s the YouTube livestream.

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

Investor's Corner

xAI targets $5 billion debt offering to fuel company goals

Elon Musk’s xAI is targeting a $5B debt raise, led by Morgan Stanley, to scale its artificial intelligence efforts.

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(Credit: xAI)

xAI’s $5 billion debt offering, marketed by Morgan Stanley, underscores Elon Musk’s ambitious plans to expand the artificial intelligence venture. The xAI package comprises bonds and two loans, highlighting the company’s strategic push to fuel its artificial intelligence development.

Last week, Morgan Stanley began pitching a floating-rate term loan B at 97 cents on the dollar with a variable interest rate of 700 basis points over the SOFR benchmark, one source said. A second option offers a fixed-rate loan and bonds at 12%, with terms contingent on investor appetite. This “best efforts” transaction, where the debt size hinges on demand, reflects cautious lending in an uncertain economic climate.

According to Reuters sources, Morgan Stanley will not guarantee the issue volume or commit its own capital in the xAI deal, marking a shift from past commitments. The change in approach stems from lessons learned during Musk’s 2022 X acquisition when Morgan Stanley and six other banks held $13 billion in debt for over two years.

Morgan Stanley and the six other banks backing Musk’s X acquisition could only dispose of that debt earlier this year. They capitalized on X’s improved operating performance over the previous two quarters as traffic on the platform increased engagement around the U.S. presidential elections. This time, Morgan Stanley’s prudent strategy mitigates similar risks.

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Beyond debt, xAI is in talks to raise $20 billion in equity, potentially valuing the company between $120 billion and $200 billion, sources said. In April, Musk hinted at a significant valuation adjustment for xAI, stating he was looking to put a “proper value” on xAI during an investor call.

As xAI pursues this $5 billion debt offering, its financial strategy positions it to lead the AI revolution, blending innovation with market opportunity.

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Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

Tesla’s future lies beyond cars—with robotaxis, humanoid bots & AI-driven factories. Cathie Wood predicts a 9x surge in 5 years.

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Cathie Wood shared that Tesla is her top stock pick. During Steven Bartlett’s podcast “The Diary Of A CEO,” the Ark Invest founder highlighted Tesla’s innovative edge, citing its convergence of robotics, energy storage, and AI.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI,” Wood said of Tesla. She emphasized the company’s potential beyond its current offerings, particularly with its Optimus robots.

“And it’s not stopping with robotaxis; there’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” she added.

In June 2024, Ark Invest issued a $2,600 price target for Tesla, which Wood reaffirmed in a March Bloomberg interview, projecting the stock to reach this level within five years. She told Bartlett that Tesla’s Optimus robots would drive productivity gains and create new revenue streams.

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Elon Musk echoed Wood’s optimism in a CNBC interview last month.

“We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories by the end of this year, beginning this fall. And we expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product, I think, in history to get to millions of units per year as soon as possible,” Musk said.

Tesla’s stock has faced volatility lately, hitting a peak closing price of $479 in December after President Donald Trump’s election win. However, Musk’s involvement with the White House DOGE office triggered protests and boycotts, contributing to a stock decline of over 40% from mid-December highs by March.

The volatility in Tesla stock alarmed investors, who urged Musk to refocus on the company. In a May earnings call, Musk responded, stating he would be “scaling down his involvement with DOGE to focus on Tesla.” Through it all, Cathie Wood and Ark Invest maintained their faith in Tesla. Wood, in particular, predicted that the “brand damage” Tesla experienced earlier this year would not be long term.

Despite recent fluctuations, Wood’s confidence in Tesla underscores its potential to redefine industries through AI and robotics. As Musk shifts his focus back to Tesla, the company’s advancements in Optimus and other innovations could drive it toward Wood’s ambitious $2,600 target, positioning Tesla as a leader in the evolving tech landscape.

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Investor's Corner

Goldman Sachs reduces Tesla price target to $285

Despite Goldman Sach’s NASDAQ: TSLA price cut to $285, Tesla boasts $95.7B in revenue & nearly $1T market cap.

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tesla-model-y-giga-berlin-delivery
(Credit: Tesla)

Goldman Sachs analysts cut Tesla’s price target to $285 from $295, maintaining a Neutral rating.

The adjustment reflects weaker sales performance across key markets, with Tesla shares trading at $284.70, down nearly 18% in the past week. The analysts pointed to declining sales data in the United States, Europe, and China as the primary driver for the revised outlook. In the U.S., Tesla’s quarter-to-date deliveries through May fell mid-teens year-over-year, according to Wards and Motor Intelligence.

In Europe, April registrations plummeted 50% year-over-year, with May showing a mid-20% decline, per industry data. Meanwhile, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reported a 20% year-over-year drop in May, despite a 5.5% sequential increase from April. Consumer surveys from HundredX and Morning Consult also shaped Goldman Sachs’ lowered delivery and EPS forecasts.

Goldman Sachs now projects Tesla’s second-quarter deliveries to range between 335,000 and 395,000 vehicles, with a base case of 365,000, down from a prior estimate of 410,000 and below the Visible Alpha Consensus of 417,000. Despite these headwinds, Tesla’s financials remain strong, with $95.7 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue and a $917 billion market capitalization.

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Regionally, Tesla’s challenges are stark. In Germany, the German road traffic agency KBA reported Tesla’s May sales dropped 36.2% year-over-year, despite a 44.9% surge in overall electric vehicle registrations. Tesla’s sales fell 29% last month in Spain, according to the ANFAC industry group. These declines highlight shifting consumer preferences amid growing competition.

On a positive note, Tesla is making strategic moves. The Model 3 and Model Y are part of a Chinese government campaign to boost rural sales, potentially mitigating losses. Piper Sandler analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, emphasizing Tesla’s supply chain strategy.

Alexander Potter stated, “Thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China.”

As Tesla navigates these delivery challenges, its focus on innovation and supply chain resilience could help it maintain its edge in the electric vehicle market despite short-term hurdles.

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