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Mars rover to Earth, this red planet has a methane problem
NASA’s Curiosity rover has been exploring an area of Mars called Gale Crater, since landing on the red planet in 2012. It was tasked with assessing the habitability of Mars. What was Mars like in the past? Were the conditions right for life?
Let’s be clear, Curiosity was not equipped with the instruments needed to identify life forms, but it can tell us if conditions were right for life to have survived.
Throughout its time on the red planet, Curiosity has discovered a bit of an enigma: Mars has methane and the abundance changes with the seasons. Big surges of methane can indicate that some sort of biological process is taking place, but that’s not always the case. And it’s not a definitive sign of life.
Methane is a gas produced by one of two methods on Earth: biological and geological. That means that some sort of life form could be producing or perhaps there’s some sort of geological explanation.
This is puzzling to scientists back on Earth because the Martian methane has been detected by ground-based telescopes. But recent orbital data from Mars shows the minuscule amounts of methane are gone.
In fact, the Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO)—a joint European and Russian mission—which launched in 2016 and was designed to sniff-out trace gases, such as methane, says the Martian air is basically methane-free.
But, NASA’s Curiosity rover may have just taken a big step forward in understanding this conundrum.
Curiosity’s detection of methane is nothing new. The six-wheeled rover has detected surges in methane throughout its mission. The most recent occurrence, recorded in June 2019, showed staggeringly high levels of methane—21 ppb (parts per billion). That’s the highest the rover has recorded to date.
Neither TGO nor its counterpart, the Mars Express orbiter, detected any methane at all in June.
TGO has detected minute amounts of methane—around 0.012 ppb—during its first few months of science operations. That’s equivalent to roughly 30 times less than what Curiosity sees. (Mars Express did detect the first methane surge that Curiosity spotted in June 2013.)
Why is there such a discrepancy between ground measurements and orbital data? The Curiosity science team has a few ideas.
First off, there could be some sort of atmospheric process taking place that is scrubbing it out of the atmosphere. Curiosity takes measurements on the ground and detects the methane, while TGO orbits the planet and does not. This means that something happens to it as it travels upwards through the atmosphere.
Another explanation could be atmospheric expansion and contraction. Mars has an atmosphere, albeit an incredibly thin one compared to Earth’s. Every day the heat from the sun causes the atmosphere to expand and contract.
As the atmosphere expands during the day, the methane could become more diffuse. Since Curiosity measure methane at night, when the rover is less busy, it could explain why the methane appears more abundant. That means that the rover is sniffing the atmosphere when its more dense, which means the methane concentration would be greater.
The team plans to take some daytime methane measurements and compare those with orbital data. This will give the team some insights into why the data is so different. Once they have that puzzle solved, they can move onto larger questions, like what generates the methane?
It’s also entirely possible that the gas may have been generated billions of years ago in deep, underground pockets, and it’s just now seeping up through the bedrock. Only time and more measurements can tell.
NASA is sending its next-generation Mars rover to the red planet this July. Dubbed the Mars 2020 rover, the vehicle is a souped-up version of Curiosity. This rover will not only be able to look for biosignatures (or signs of life), it will also bag up samples for a future return to Earth.
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Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is doubling down on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) long-term upside. In a post on X, the analyst stated that the electric vehicle maker could hit a $3 trillion market cap by the end of 2026 in a bullish scenario, thanks to the company’s efforts to develop and push its artificial intelligence programs.
An aggressive valuation upside
Ives, Wedbush’s global head of tech research, stated in his post that Tesla is entering a pivotal period as its autonomy and robotics ambitions move closer to commercialization. He expects Tesla’s market cap to reach $2 trillion in 2026, representing roughly 33% upside from current levels, with a bull case up to a $3 trillion market cap by year-end.
Overall, Ives noted that 2026 could become a “monster year” for TSLA. “Heading into 2026, this marks a monster year ahead for Tesla/Musk as the autonomous and robotics chapter begins. We believe Tesla hits a $2 trillion market cap in 2026 and in a bull case scenario $3 trillion by end of 2026… as the AI chapter takes hold at TSLA,” the analyst wrote.
Ives also reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $600 per share price target.
Unsupervised Full-Self Driving tests
Fueling optimism is Tesla’s recent autonomous vehicle testing in Austin, Texas. Over the weekend, at least two Tesla Model Ys were spotted driving on public roads without a safety monitor or any other occupants. CEO Elon Musk later confirmed the footage of one of the vehicles on X, writing in a post that “testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
It remains unclear whether the vehicle was supported by chase cars or remote monitoring, and Tesla has not disclosed how many vehicles are involved. That being said, Elon Musk stated a week ago that Tesla would be removing its Safety Monitors from its vehicles “within the next three weeks.” Based on the driverless vehicles’ sightings so far, it appears that Musk’s estimate may be right on the mark, at least for now.
News
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
Tesla has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements.
Tesla has showcased what appears to be a near-production-ready Cybercab at its Santana Row showroom in San Jose, California, giving visitors the closest look yet at the autonomous two-seater’s refined design.
Based on photos of the near-production-ready vehicle, the electric vehicle maker has implemented subtle but significant updates to both the Cybercab’s exterior and interior elements, making the vehicle look more polished and seemingly more comfortable than its prototypes from last year.
Exterior and interior refinements
The updated Cybercab, whose photos were initially shared by Tesla advocate Nic Cruz Patane, now features a new frameless window design, an extended bottom splitter on the front bumper, and a slightly updated rear hatch. It also includes a production-spec front lightbar with integrated headlights, new wheel covers, and a license plate bracket.
Notably, the vehicle now has two windshield wipers instead of the prototype’s single unit, along with powered door struts, seemingly for smoother opening of its butterfly doors. Inside, the Cybercab now sports what appears to be a redesigned dash and door panels, updated carpet material, and slightly refined seat cushions with new center cupholders. Its legroom seems to have gotten slightly larger as well.
Cybercab sightings
Sightings of the updated Cybercab have been abundant in recent months. At the end of October, the Tesla AI team teased some of the autonomous two-seater’s updates after it showed a photo of the vehicle being driven through an In-N-Out drive-through by employees in Halloween costumes. The photos of the Cybercab were fun, but they were significant, with longtime Tesla watchers noting that the company has a tradition of driving its prototypes through the fast food chain’s drive-throughs.
Even at the time, Tesla enthusiasts noticed that the Cybercab had received some design changes, such as segmented DRLs and headlamps, actual turn signals, and a splitter that’s a lot sharper. Larger door openings, which now seem to have been teasing the vehicle’s updated cabin, were also observed at the time.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
Tesla analyst Dan Levy of Barclays realized one big thing about the stock moving into 2026: vehicle deliveries are losing importance.
As a new era of Tesla seems to be on the horizon, the concern about vehicle deliveries and annual growth seems to be fading, at least according to many investors.
Even CEO Elon Musk has implied at times that the automotive side, as a whole, will only make up a small percentage of Tesla’s total valuation, as Optimus and AI begin to shine with importance.
He said in April:
“The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale and large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.”
Almost all of Tesla’s value long-term will be from AI & robots, both vehicle & humanoid
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 11, 2023
Levy wrote in a note to investors that Tesla’s Q4 delivery figures “likely won’t matter for the stock.” Barclays said in the note that it expects deliveries to be “soft” for the quarter.
In years past, Tesla analysts, investors, and fans were focused on automotive growth.
Cars were truly the biggest thing the stock had to offer: Tesla was a growing automotive company with a lot of prowess in AI and software, but deliveries held the most impact, along with vehicle pricing. These types of things had huge impacts on the stock years ago.
In fact, several large swings occurred because of Tesla either beating or missing delivery estimates:
- January 3, 2022: +13.53%, record deliveries at the time
- January 3, 2023: -12.24%, missed deliveries
- July 2, 2024: +10.20%, beat delivery expectations
- October 3, 2022: -8.61%, sharp miss due to Shanghai factory shutdown
- July 2, 2020: +7.95%, topped low COVID-era expectations with sizeable beat on deliveries
It has become more apparent over the past few quarters that delivery estimates have significantly less focus from investors, who are instead looking for progress in AI, Optimus, Cybercab, and other projects.
These things are the future of the company, and although Tesla will always sell cars, the stock is more impacted by the software the vehicle is running, and not necessarily the vehicle itself.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees ‘monster year’ ahead for Tesla amid AI push
Production-ready Tesla Cybercab hits showroom floor in San Jose
