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Investor's Corner

Rivian, down 45% since IPO, poised for 160% surge: Morgan Stanley

Credit: Rivian Automotive

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Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock is down 45 percent since its initial public offering in November when shares started publicly trading at around $106.75. Currently, Rivian shares hover around the $55 mark. Its drastic fall in the first few months of being publicly traded is not keeping Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas from shying away from an incredibly bullish position, stating it will surge around 160 percent from its current “overly depressed” levels.

At the time of writing, Rivian shares were trading at $55.24.

Rivian had all the advantages an up-and-coming automaker would want. It has a savvy CEO, a sizeable investment backed by Amazon, one of the largest companies globally, and a line of products that had consumers thirsty for more information. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed the company’s initial production dates back several times. After a year of delays, Rivian started delivering the R1T pickup late last year.

Rivian ends 2021 with 1,015 vehicles produced, COO retires from company

In terms of its stock performance, things have not gone according to plan. Rivian peaked at levels just shy of $180 per share, fed mostly by analyst narratives that pushed the company as “the next big thing” in the sector. However, EV production is proving increasingly difficult for many automakers. Long-standing OEMs like Volkswagen and GM have struggled in early projects, and startups like Rivian and Lucid are yielding numbers that are just fractional compared to industry leaders Tesla.

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However, Tesla’s production history also showed lagging periods early on, only to iron out the bottlenecks and become the largest manufacturer of EVs, ramping to over 900,000 annual units fourteen years after producing its first model.

Jonas, who has covered the EV sector for years, says if any auto company can dig itself out of the depths, it’s Rivian.

Credit: MotorTrend

“An IPO that preceded the December market top, the reality-check of supply chain bottlenecks (normal in auto land, perhaps not normal in tech land), and the gut-check of having partner Amazon exercise its right to secure EDVs from alternative vendors (Stellantis, Daimler) has shaken investor confidence and, we think, provides an excellent opportunity to gain exposure to a company, product cycle, and business model that we believe has a greater chance [of] being a winner in this industry than most other EV competitors,” Jonas wrote in a note to investors. “While Rivian is at a far earlier stage in its industrial journey than Tesla, we do not see this company as just a ‘concept stock’ either. The road to ramping production will be choppy, but we expect largely due to supply rather than demand.”

Rivian shares spiked briefly earlier this week following reports of an increase in production output of the R1T. Rivian was unable to comment on the matter when we asked for clarification. The routine sell-off of tech stocks this week has also likely contributed to Rivian’s sharp fall. After all, Tesla’s impressive Q4 2021 Earnings Call did not yield any gains in the way of the industry leader, as the company’s stock is down nearly 8% this week.

Jonas holds a $147 price target for Rivian, with a “Buy” rating. Jonas is ranked 656th, out of 7,760 analysts. He has a success rate of 52% with an average return of 11.4%, according to TipRanks.

Disclosure: Joey Klender is not a RIVN Shareholder.

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I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders

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Michael Dell points out practical advantage of Elon Musk’s proposed pay package

Michael Dell has weighed in on Elon Musk’s controversial 2025 CEO Performance Award, offering a grounded perspective amidst the noise surrounding the pay package today.

As pointed out by the Dell Technologies CEO, Musk will only be rewarded if he delivers extraordinary value to shareholders. Musk would quite literally receive no compensation if he fails to achieve his targets.

Dell emphasizes results over rhetoric

Dell shared his thoughts about Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award in a post on X.“Vote FOR Elon Musk. The award is only achieved IF he hits exceptionally ambitious market-cap and operational milestones—if he falls short, he gets nothing,” Dell wrote in his post. 

“If he succeeds, shareholders will win big through unprecedented value creation, and he will earn added voting rights to continue driving Tesla’s long-term vision.”

Musk replied with a short “Thanks Michael,” acknowledging Dell’s support. Dell’s framing cuts through the debate surrounding Musk’s compensation, as he simply focused on the incentive structure’s risk-reward balance.

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Musk’s ambitious pay package

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award requires Tesla’s market capitalization to rise from roughly $1.1 trillion today to $8.5 trillion within a decade. This would make Tesla more valuable than any company in history.

Apart from this, Tesla’s operating profit must also grow from $17 billion to $400 billion annually. Musk must also lead the company to several product-related milestones, such as 20 million cumulative vehicle deliveries, 10 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions, 1 million Tesla Bots, and 1 million operating Robotaxis.

So far, proxy advisors Glass Lewis and ISS have urged shareholders to vote against the plan. Some prominent investors, including ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, however, have voiced strong support for the plan. Wood called Musk “the most productive human being on earth,” arguing that his vision and ability to attract talent are central to Tesla’s success.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package gets support from Tesla’s biggest bull

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass.

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Credit: Tesla Singapore/X

Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest and one of Tesla’s most ardent bulls, reiterated her support for Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award. 

Wood highlighted that Musk’s leadership attracts incredible talent, and it has allowed the companies he leads such as Tesla to become disruptors in their respective fields.

ARK Invest supports Musk’s leadership

Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award has received a mixed reception. Proxy firms such as Glass Lewis and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) have stated that they would be voting against Musk’s pay package. Other entities, such as the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA), have stated that they would be voting in favor of Tesla’s proposals. 

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, for her part, has previously stated that she is quite confident that the vote on Elon Musk’s 2025 Performance Award would pass. She also stated that a favorable result to the vote for Musk’s 2025 pay plan would be beneficial for Tesla.

“Elon Musk is the most productive human being on earth. And a human being who attracts incredible talent, people who want to solve the world’s hardest problems. This is a win-win for all of us if Elon succeeds this time,” Wood stated. Musk appreciated Wood’s comments, stating, “Thanks Cathie!” In a post on X.

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ARK Invest has been one of Tesla’s most loyal bulls

Tesla is ARK Invest’s single largest holding, with the firm holding an estimated $1 billion worth of TSLA, as noted in an Insider report. Wood previously said she expects the approval of Musk’s pay package to trigger “super-exponential growth” for the automaker, as new products like the Cybercab and Optimus expand Tesla’s offerings.

“Because think about it. It is a convergence among three of our major platforms. So, robots, energy storage, AI, and it’s not stopping with Robotaxis. There’s a story beyond that with humanoid robots, and our $2,600 number has nothing for humanoid robots. We just thought it’d be an investment, period,” Wood stated during an appearance at Steven Bartlett’s podcast The Diary Of A CEO.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla VP for AI software makes a case for upcoming Elon Musk shareholder vote

Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Director of Autopilot Software and VP of AI Software Ashok Elluswamy has shared his thoughts about CEO Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award. While the executive typically discusses topics related to the company’s tech and AI initiaives, Elluswamy made it a point to make a case for Musk’s proposed pay package. 

Tesla’s VP for AI Software shares his insights 

In a post on X, Elluswamy reiterated the idea that Tesla is indeed at a critical point in its history. This is because the company is changing from a leader in electric vehicles and a major player in the energy storage market to a powerhouse pioneer in robotics that are powered by real-world AI.  As per the executive, Elon Musk’s leadership of Tesla is more relevant now more than ever. He also reported an X article he previously wrote about Elon Musk and Tesla.

“This note regarding the importance of Elon leading Tesla is more relevant now than ever. Tesla is at a critical juncture, as it is metamorphosing into the world leader in robotics. Creating large-scale, useful robots requires expertise across engineering design, manufacturing, real-world AI software, chips for AI, and more. Elon is, quite likely, the only person on Earth with deep skills and the right instincts across all these domains,” Elluswamy stated.

A push to support Musk’s 2025 performance award

In recent weeks, Tesla executives such as Board Chair Robyn Denholm have been encouraging TSLA shareholders to vote in favor of Elon Musk’s 2025 performance award, as well as other proposals that the company’s directors have argued are critical to the future of the company. These proposals, Tesla executives noted, are necessary to ensure that the company can achieve the ambitious targets of Elon Musk’s Master Plan Part IV. 

Elon Musk’s pay package, as well as the company’s proposals, would be decided at the upcoming 2025 Annual Shareholders Meeting, which would be held at Giga Texas on November 6, 2025. Needless to say, Tesla’s future might very well be decided during the event. 

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