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SpaceX schedules next Starlink launch, fires up rocket for asteroid redirect mission

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Update: SpaceX has successfully static fired the Falcon 9 tasked with launching DART. The rocket will now roll back to SLC-4’s integration hangar for payload installation before rolling out to the pad a second time.

SpaceX has scheduled its next East Coast Starlink launch just a few weeks after the latest as a different Falcon 9 rocket prepares to launch NASA’s DART asteroid redirection demonstration mission.

On Tuesday, NASA confirmed that a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on track to launch the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) spacecraft no earlier than (NET) 10:21 pm PST on Tuesday, November 23rd (06:21 UTC 24 Nov). Following the successful launch of NASA and the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel 6A spacecraft in November 2020 and the first launch of a full batch of laser-linked Starlink satellites on September 14th, DART will be SpaceX’s third West Coast launch in just over 12 months and the first time the company has launched out of Vandenberg twice in one year since 2019.

Up next, Spaceflight Now and launch photographer Ben Cooper recently confirmed that SpaceX has already scheduled its next Starlink launch after a successful mission on November 13th, aiming to deliver another batch of ~53 laser-linked satellites to orbit NET 1:36am EST (06:36 UTC), Wednesday, December 1st.

Oddly, Spaceflight Now’s launch calendar indicates that SpaceX’s next Starlink launch won’t help recent confusion over the constellations mission naming scheme. SpaceX’s most recent Starlink launch was deemed “Starlink 4-1,” which is explained below.

“In simple terms, the first ~4400-satellite phase of SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is split into five groups of satellites – known as shells – with different orbital altitudes and inclinations (the orbit’s tilt). In May, SpaceX’s most recent East Coast Starlink launch effectively completed the first of those five shells or groups. With Starlink V1.5’s September debut, SpaceX also debuted a new naming scheme, deeming the mission Starlink 2-1 – the first launch of the second shell. Based on the inclination implied in Starlink 4-1’s hazard warning, Shell 4 refers to a second group of 1584 satellites almost identical to Shell 1, while Shell 2 is a semi-polar group of 720 satellites. That means that Shells 3 and 5 are sets of either 340 or 158 satellites at slightly different altitudes in polar orbit and will likely be the last Phase 1 Starlink satellites SpaceX launches.”

Teslarati.com — November 7th, 2021

SpaceX’s next Starlink launch, however, is apparently named “Starlink 4-3,” implying that the company has either skipped a launch or was forced to swap the order of two missions for unknown reasons (perhaps the same reason that Starlink 2-3 – itself leapfrogging 2-2 – was indefinitely delayed from an original October launch target. In short, aside from being few and far between for unspecified reasons, the sequencing of SpaceX Starlink launches have been a mess in the second half of 2021 and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change anytime soon.

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Barring the delay of one or several other missions, CEO Elon Musk’s recent statement that SpaceX is “aiming [to launch] 80 tons” or ~175,000 pounds of payload in Q4 2021 leaves room for two more Starlink launches (including 4-3) in the last six weeks of the year.

Falcon 9’s Sentinel 6A launch and landing, November 2020. (SpaceX)

In the meantime, as early as November 23rd, SpaceX is scheduled to launch DART to an unspecified orbit – perhaps a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) but maybe directly into deep space, the latter of which would make it Falcon 9’s first launch beyond the Earth-Moon system. Despite the extremely light payload, Falcon 9 booster B1063 is expected to land at sea on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY), which falls in favor of a high-velocity Earth escape launch.

A SpaceX, JHUAPL (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab), and NASA team successfully mated the ~550-670 kg (1200-1500 lb) spacecraft to Falcon 9’s payload adapter on November 10th and are likely just a few days away from encapsulating DART inside the rocket’s comparatively massive payload fairing. Sans payload, Falcon 9 will likely roll out to SpaceX’s SLC-4E pad and perform a prelaunch static fire test any day now before heading back to the hangar for fairing installation.

Update: A NASASpaceflight.com forum member spotted Falcon 9 vertical while traveling by train past SpaceX’s Vandenberg launch pad, confirming that a static fire is imminent.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley

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Credit: Tesla

In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.

Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue

Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.

The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”

Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”

Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”

Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.

Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.

The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.

Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.

There are plenty of ways the company can do this:

Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts

SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.

SpaceX is charging Anthropic massive money for its compute

High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity

The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.

Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.

Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.

High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online

GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.

Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications

Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.

These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.

Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages

SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.

Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.

SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.

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Tesla headlights cause recall of over 20,000 Model 3 and Model Y

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Tesla headlights have caused a recall of over 20,000 of the company’s two most popular vehicles, the Model 3 and Model Y, due to the low-beam bulb exceeding the maximum allowed intensity according to federal standards.

Tesla initiated the recall with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) this morning, stating that the low-beam output “exceeds the maximum allowed intensity in the outer upper-right and outer upper-left areas of the 10U and 90U zone, as prescribed in FMVSS No. 108.”

Tesla sourced the impacted headlights from Marelli Automotive Lighting, a Mexico-based company. The recall impacts 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles and 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles. It is estimated that every VIN in this recall is impacted by the defect.

Typically, Tesla would remedy recalls of this nature through an Over-the-Air software update, which has been a major focus of criticism by the company and its supporters because the NHTSA still refers to it as a “recall,” even though it requires no action by the vehicle owner. The fix is shipped over the internet and downloaded to the car.

However, there appears to be a potentially different solution for this problem. Tesla has not developed a remedy for this issue, so it could potentially be on the way. The big issue appears to be the fact that these recalled lamps are out of production, and this is an old body style for both vehicles. The headlights and front-end designs are completely different.

Tesla switched to another supplier when the affected headlight design was discontinued. It plans to begin notifying owners of their remedy options by September 15.

Tesla filed a petition protesting the recall to fix the vehicles’ headlight issue, but the NHTSA denied it. Now, Tesla will come up with a solution to fix it.

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