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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s hat is safe after ULA Vulcan rocket launch slips to 2023

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In the latest unfortunate development for SpaceX competitor United Launch Alliance’s next-generation Vulcan Centaur rocket, it looks like CEO Elon Musk may have been right all along when he forecast major delays more than three years ago.

In February 2018, even before SpaceX had flown Falcon Heavy for the first time, detractors with axes to grind were already busy attempting to downplay the rocket’s capabilities. On February 6th, Falcon Heavy lifted off for the first time, launching a several-ton Tesla Roadster car into interplanetary space and marking the first debut of a super heavy-lift rocket since the 1980s. That successful launch also meant that ULA’s last bastion of competitive advantage – the Delta IV Heavy rocket, fittingly by way of monopoly – was no longer alone.

Indeed, mere months after its near-flawless debut, Falcon Heavy had already secured its first operational US military launch contract. Delta IV Heavy, on the other hand, had already been preparing for retirement as part of ULA’s plan to replace two complex rockets (Delta and Atlas) with Vulcan.

Musk mercilessly took to task ULA’s heavy-lift rocket when commenters brought it up, noting that Falcon Heavy is largely comparable in a partially-reusable configuration but completely outclasses Delta IV Heavy – while still being dramatically cheaper – if all boosters are expended. The SpaceX CEO estimated that Delta IV Heavy launches would cost ULA significantly more than $400M after the company had effectively announced the end of Delta IV Medium production, though ULA CEO Tory Bruno still claimed a launch price of ~$350M.

In response to a reply noting that ULA’s plan was to replace Atlas V and Delta IV with Vulcan Centaur for launches “after 2020,” Musk pulled no punches, stating that he would “seriously eat [his] hat with a side of mustard if [Vulcan] flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.” At the time, ULA’s CEO did not exactly seem to share Musk’s shocking appraisal of the situation, which was out of left field even for major SpaceX proponents.

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At the time, ULA’s party line touted Vulcan Centaur lifting off for the first time in late 2019 – the very next year. Ironically, weeks after Musk threw down his hat-eating gauntlet, ULA announced that Vulcan’s first launch had slipped to “mid-2020” – with a second flight later the same year – to give the company time to move straight to a larger upper stage originally meant to debut later on. Six months later, ULA announced yet another delay for Vulcan, this time pushing the rocket’s launch debut from mid-2020 to no earlier than (NET) April 2021.

Three years later, April 2021 has come and gone and ULA’s latest public Vulcan launch target is now “late 2021,” though that is all but guaranteed to slip into early 2022. In the latest (not-so-) shocking development for ULA’s next-generation rocket, the company has now requested and received permission from the US military to swap out Vulcan for an Atlas V rocket on what would have been the vehicle’s first military launch.

Exercising a contract loophole that had to have been explicitly designed to give ULA – and ULA alone – the option to fall back on its Atlas V or Delta IV rockets if Vulcan were to experience major delays, Atlas V will now take over the ULA’s USSF-51 mission. As a result, Vulcan Centaur’s first dedicated ‘national security’ launch is now officially scheduled no earlier than 2023, saving Elon Musk from having to eat his hat.

As of May 2021, ULA has now replaced one Vulcan launch with an Atlas V and inexplicably closed nine Atlas V launch contracts with Starlink competitor Amazon, bringing into question whether the company is ever actually going to simplify its rocket production lines. Given that ULA no longer appears to be planning on reusing parts of Vulcan, the only possible way Vulcan will end up more affordable than the rockets its replacing is if it quickly becomes the only rocket ULA produces, which was originally the plan. With ULA now apparently going out of its way to sell Atlas V commercially instead of Vulcan Centaur, it’s difficult to argue that the company has any interest at all in lowering the cost of access to space or offering SpaceX serious competition outside of lobbying and greasing the hinges of revolving doors.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Grok coming to Tesla vehicles next week “at the latest:” Elon Musk

Grok’s rollout to Tesla vehicles is expected to begin next week at the latest.

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Credit: Tesla China

Elon Musk announced on Thursday that Grok, the large language model developed by his startup xAI, will soon be available in Tesla vehicles. Grok’s rollout to Tesla vehicles is expected to begin next week at the latest, further deepening the ties between the two Elon Musk-led companies.

Tesla–xAI synergy

Musk confirmed the news on X shortly after livestreaming the release of Grok 4, xAI’s latest large language model. “Grok is coming to Tesla vehicles very soon. Next week at the latest,” Musk wrote in a post on social media platform X.

During the livestream, Musk and several members of the xAI team highlighted several upgrades to Grok 4’s voice capabilities and performance metrics, positioning the LLM as competitive with top-tier models from OpenAI and Google.

The in-vehicle integration of Grok marks a new chapter in Tesla’s AI development. While Tesla has long relied on in-house systems for autonomous driving and energy optimization, Grok’s integration would introduce conversational AI directly into its vehicles’ user experience. This integration could potentially improve customer interaction inside Tesla vehicles.

xAI and Tesla’s collaborative footprint

Grok’s upcoming rollout to Tesla vehicles adds to a growing business relationship between Tesla and xAI. Earlier this year, Tesla disclosed that it generated $198.3 million in revenue from commercial, consulting, and support agreements with xAI, as noted in a report from Bloomberg News. A large portion of that amount, however, came from the sale of Megapack energy storage systems to the artificial intelligence startup.

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In July 2023, Musk polled X users about whether Tesla should invest $5 billion in xAI. While no formal investment has been made so far, 68% of poll participants voted yes, and Musk has since stated that the idea would be discussed with Tesla’s board.

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Tesla Robotaxi to expand Austin coverage, Bay Area launch targeted in coming months

Tesla is looking at the San Francisco Bay Area as the next location for its Robotaxi service.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla is preparing to expand its Robotaxi pilot program in Austin, Texas, with the self-driving service set to cover a larger portion of the city this weekend. The CEO shared the update in a post on social media platform X, where he also noted that the company is currently looking at the San Francisco Bay Area as the location for Tesla’s next Robotaxi pilot.

Tesla’s growing Robotaxi pilot

Tesla’s Robotaxi service first launched in Austin last month as a test program. While the vehicles operate without a human in the driver’s seat, a Tesla employee currently rides in the front passenger seat to monitor vehicle performance. Responses to Tesla’s Robotaxi pilot are quite positive, with some users praising the vehicles for their smooth and comfortable rides.

In a later post on X, Musk also stated that Tesla is in the process of seeking regulatory approval to begin operating robotaxis in the Bay Area, adding that a launch there could happen within “a month or two.” The California expansion would be a notable milestone for Tesla, considering its roots in the state.

Robotaxi is key to Tesla’s long-term growth

Autonomous driving remains central to Tesla’s long-term vision. Musk has consistently framed Robotaxis as a future driver of profitability and growth, particularly as EV sales face headwinds across multiple regions. In a way, the expansion of Tesla’s autonomous fleet is expected to play a critical role in differentiating the company’s offerings in a crowded electric vehicle market.

Tesla has yet to specify when the Robotaxi service will transition out of its testing phase or how it plans to monetize the platform, as the company is only charging a flat fee of $4.20 per ride in its Austin pilot program today. However, its growing geographic footprint suggests the company is steadily progressing toward wider deployment.

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xAI launches Grok 4 with new $300/month SuperGrok Heavy subscription

xAI also introduced SuperGrok Heavy, which is priced at $300 per month.

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Credit: xAI/X

xAI, the artificial intelligence company founded by Elon Musk, has officially launched its latest flagship models, Grok 4 and Grok 4 Heavy. Alongside the release, the company introduced its most premium subscription tier to date, SuperGrok Heavy, which is priced at $300 per month and targeted at power users and developers.

Grok 4 is designed to compete with top-tier AI models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini. As per xAI, Grok 4 demonstrates frontier-level performance across several benchmark evaluations. 

On Humanity’s Last Exam, an extensive test designed to evaluate general knowledge, Grok 4 scored 25.4% without using external tools, outperforming OpenAI’s o3 (high), which scored 21%, and Gemini 2.5 Pro, which scored 21.6%. 

When equipped with tools, Grok 4 Heavy scored 44.4%, making it the top-performing model in that category. For context, Gemini 2.5 Pro with tools scored 26.9%, as noted in a TechCrunch report.

xAI also highlighted Grok 4 Heavy’s “multi-agent” system, which enables multiple instances of the model to solve a problem in parallel and compare answers, similar to a study group. This collaborative approach is intended to improve both reasoning and accuracy in complex tasks.

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The company also shared results from the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark, where Grok (Thinking) achieved new state of the art (SOTA) score on the test with 15.9%. As per Arc Prize in a post on X, this score is “nearly double(s) the previous commercial SOTA and tops the current Kaggle competition SOTA.”

The $300/month SuperGrok Heavy plan grants users early access to Grok 4 Heavy, as well as upcoming product features. Upcoming capabilities that are planned for release in the coming months include an AI coding model in August, a multi-modal agent in September, and a video generation system in October.

Grok 4 and Grok 4 Heavy are available via API as part of xAI’s push to engage developers and enterprise users. The company’s enterprise platform, which launched just two months ago, will also expand via partnerships with cloud hyperscalers to bring Grok models to broader infrastructure environments.

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