SpaceX
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 head to Pad 39A for historic launch debut
NASA has confirmed that a Feb. 27th launch readiness review (LRR) prior to the orbital debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft concluded with all parties remaining “go” for the historic launch.
Scheduled to liftoff at 2:48 am EST (07:48 UTC) on March 2nd, Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon can now begin to roll out to Launch Complex 39A (‘Pad 39A’) and complete final preflight checks approximately 24-48 hours before launch. After relentless work over the last few months, SpaceX has also largely completed a significant series of changes – many aesthetic – to Pad 39A, giving the historic complex a sleek new black and white paint scheme and enclosed tower (FSS).
And there's the confirmation the LRR was completed and with a GO. Rollout is next. Expect lots of cool photos especially with the 39A FSS now fully "cladded" compared to the photo in the tweet during the Static Fire test. https://t.co/SQHcd3Ahgo
— NSF – NASASpaceflight.com (@NASASpaceflight) February 28, 2019
Falcon 9, Crew Dragon “go” for launch
Following up the Flight Readiness Review (FRR) five days later, the completion of the Launch Readiness Review (LRR) effectively means that SpaceX can now proceed into launch operations a bit like any other mission, rolling the rocket and spacecraft out to Pad 39A, taking the assembly vertical, and finally completing (relatively) routine preflight preparations. SpaceX pad engineers and technicians have already completed a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test over the last two months, meaning that they have already gained a significant amount of real-world experience working with and operating the brand new Crew Dragon spacecraft and its human-rated Falcon 9 rocket.
This milestone has been the better part of a decade in the making, beginning in 2009 or 2010 (depending on definitions) with funding from NASA dedicated to what would ultimately become the Commercial Crew Program (CCP). SpaceX did not begin to receive rewards or dedicated Crew Dragon-related funding until April 2011, when NASA awarded the company $75M to develop the spacecraft’s proposed integral abort system, relying on a newly developed Super Draco engine. In August 2012, NASA awarded Sierra Nevada, SpaceX, and Boeing several hundred million dollars each to continue serious development of their respective crewed spacecraft and launch vehicles, followed in 2014 by firm long-term contracts with SpaceX and Boeing to bring their Crew Dragon and Starliner vehicles to fruition.
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- The integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon ‘stack’ rolled out to Pad 39A for the first time in the first few days of 2019. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon and its crew-rated Falcon 9 went vertical at a launch pad (Pad 39A) for the first time ever on January 4th. (SpaceX)
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- Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 B1051 stand vertical at Pad 39A during preparations for a late January static fire test. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX completed a successful static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. (SpaceX)
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- An official SpaceX render shows Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon lifting off from Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
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Of note, SpaceX’s contract was valued at $2.6B, while Boeing received $4.2B, a full 60% more to complete an effectively identical task. Sadly, the US Congress systematically underfunded CCP during its formative years, largely a consequence of entrenched political and financial interests in preferentially funding NASA’s own SLS rocket and crewed Orion spacecraft above and at the cost of other rocket and spacecraft development initiatives. Insufficient funding likely contributed heavily to the years of delays subsequently suffered by the program and its commercial providers, pushing a nominal launch debut target from 2015 to 2017 before ultimately moving to 2018 and finally 2019, largely a result of unsurprising technical challenges faced by each provider as they entered into hardware- and testing-rich phases of development.
After approximately 5-6 years of concerted work, SpaceX and NASA are now as ready as they’ll ever be to conduct the first orbital launch of the Commercial Crew Program, to be followed as early as by Boeing’s own uncrewed orbital demonstration of its Starliner spacecraft. For those that have followed CCP for even part of its years-long saga, it’s more than a little surreal to be faced with the reality that such a milestone is barely two days distant.
Pad 39A: more than just a fresh coat
Meanwhile, SpaceX’s leased Pad 39A launch complex has undergone its own significant changes. Dating back to NASA’s Apollo Program, Pad 39A supported all but one of Saturn V’s 13 launches and more than 80 Space Shuttle launches before SpaceX took over the pad in 2014. In the five years the company has leased the facility, a range of changes have been made to the pad’s hardware, support facilities, and the primary metalwork known as service structures, one fixed (FSS) and one rolling (RSS). Aside from a bare skeleton of the RSS hinge, SpaceX has completely removed several hundred tons of Shuttle support hardware, while the FSS (the skyscraper-like rectangular tower) has remained largely unchanged, aside from the installation of a new level and Crew Dragon’s Crew Access Arm (CAA) on the ~110m (350 ft) tower.
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- Space Shuttle Atlantis prepares for STS-129’s Pad 39A launch, November 2009. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
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- 39A is seen here on February 11th, 2009 from a very similar angle to the 2009 photo of Shuttle Atlantis. (Tom Cross)
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- Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon vertical at Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
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- SpaceX technicians work on the tower and access arm, Feb. 11. (Tom Cross)
Most recently, the company has pursued a series of visually distinct changes to tower, painting it almost entirely black with white highlights and installing partially transparent black plexiglass panels along the full length of at least 2-3 of its four walls. While the paint color is almost certainly aesthetically motivated (it matches Falcon 9, Crew Dragon, and the access arm), the decision to enclose all or most of the FSS will likely be very well received the astronauts and technicians it will ultimately support, especially if SpaceX manages to keep out Florida’s notorious mosquitoes.
If SpaceX’s uncrewed DM-1 Crew Dragon demonstration is a success, the company could follow it up with Crew Dragon’s first launch with astronauts aboard as early as July 2019, officially returning 39A to active place in human spaceflight and marking the end of more than eight years spent without a domestic solution for transporting US astronauts into orbit.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX’s next trillion dollar bet has nothing to do with rockets, Musk tells staff
Elon Musk told SpaceX staff AI revenue will soon dwarf rockets and Starlink combined entirely.
Elon Musk told SpaceX employees this week that artificial intelligence, not rockets, will soon carry the company’s revenue. In a roughly 29 minute internal address posted on SpaceX’s X account on Tuesday, Musk said AI revenue will pass every other line of business at SpaceX “probably in September” and pull further ahead by the fourth quarter.
The numbers he gave are specific. SpaceX currently runs 1.4 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Musk wants that at 10 gigawatts by the end of 2027, a jump he tied directly to revenue: “if we bring 10GW of AI online by the end of next year, it will be $300 billion to $500 billion a year in revenue.” He called those “big numbers,” which undersells a projection larger than what most countries produce in a year.
We made rockets reusable and are rebuilding the internet in space. The next challenge: making life multiplanetary and understanding the true nature of the universe
Watch @ElonMusk deliver a company update to @SpaceX employees pic.twitter.com/5c8rxoCQfu
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) August 11, 2026
Musk went further on where AI fits into SpaceX’s future. “Probably in four or five years, AI will be 99% of the value of SpaceX,” he told staff, adding that digital intelligence would eventually run “a trillion times” ahead of biological intelligence as computing scales. He tied that growth to the company’s founding mission, telling employees “we must win on AI, because the future is overwhelmingly AI and robots,” with the payoff meant to help fund Starship and a Mars program that increasingly runs through Terafab, the joint Tesla, SpaceX and xAI chip plant.
Elon Musk launches TERAFAB: The $25B Tesla-SpaceXAI chip factory that will rewire the AI industry
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None of this is entirely new territory. SpaceX told investors much the same story during its first earnings call as a public company on August 4, where Musk moved the company’s $1 trillion revenue target up a year to 2030 and said Starlink could someday carry a majority of the world’s internet. What the all hands video adds is a hard deadline and a specific power figure Musk had not given publicly before, along with a franker pitch to his own workforce that AI, not launch cadence, is now the thing SpaceX is betting its future on.
The AI revenue itself is not coming from SpaceX training its own models. It is largely Starlink acting as the network layer for xAI’s workloads, plus SpaceX renting out compute capacity directly, the same approach behind the roughly $16 billion the company spent on AI infrastructure in a single quarter.
Musk closed the video with a pitch aimed at recruiting and retention rather than investors, telling employees that anyone who helps SpaceX win the AI race will eventually get the chance to go to the moon or Mars themselves. Whether SpaceX can turn 1.4 gigawatts into 10 in seventeen months is the more immediate question, and one that will show up in quarterly numbers well before anyone leaves Earth.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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