SpaceX
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 head to Pad 39A for historic launch debut
NASA has confirmed that a Feb. 27th launch readiness review (LRR) prior to the orbital debut of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft concluded with all parties remaining “go” for the historic launch.
Scheduled to liftoff at 2:48 am EST (07:48 UTC) on March 2nd, Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon can now begin to roll out to Launch Complex 39A (‘Pad 39A’) and complete final preflight checks approximately 24-48 hours before launch. After relentless work over the last few months, SpaceX has also largely completed a significant series of changes – many aesthetic – to Pad 39A, giving the historic complex a sleek new black and white paint scheme and enclosed tower (FSS).
And there's the confirmation the LRR was completed and with a GO. Rollout is next. Expect lots of cool photos especially with the 39A FSS now fully "cladded" compared to the photo in the tweet during the Static Fire test. https://t.co/SQHcd3Ahgo
— NSF – NASASpaceflight.com (@NASASpaceflight) February 28, 2019
Falcon 9, Crew Dragon “go” for launch
Following up the Flight Readiness Review (FRR) five days later, the completion of the Launch Readiness Review (LRR) effectively means that SpaceX can now proceed into launch operations a bit like any other mission, rolling the rocket and spacecraft out to Pad 39A, taking the assembly vertical, and finally completing (relatively) routine preflight preparations. SpaceX pad engineers and technicians have already completed a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test over the last two months, meaning that they have already gained a significant amount of real-world experience working with and operating the brand new Crew Dragon spacecraft and its human-rated Falcon 9 rocket.
This milestone has been the better part of a decade in the making, beginning in 2009 or 2010 (depending on definitions) with funding from NASA dedicated to what would ultimately become the Commercial Crew Program (CCP). SpaceX did not begin to receive rewards or dedicated Crew Dragon-related funding until April 2011, when NASA awarded the company $75M to develop the spacecraft’s proposed integral abort system, relying on a newly developed Super Draco engine. In August 2012, NASA awarded Sierra Nevada, SpaceX, and Boeing several hundred million dollars each to continue serious development of their respective crewed spacecraft and launch vehicles, followed in 2014 by firm long-term contracts with SpaceX and Boeing to bring their Crew Dragon and Starliner vehicles to fruition.
- The integrated DM-1 Crew Dragon ‘stack’ rolled out to Pad 39A for the first time in the first few days of 2019. (SpaceX)
- Crew Dragon and its crew-rated Falcon 9 went vertical at a launch pad (Pad 39A) for the first time ever on January 4th. (SpaceX)
- Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 B1051 stand vertical at Pad 39A during preparations for a late January static fire test. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX completed a successful static fire of the first Falcon 9 rated for human flight on January 24th. (SpaceX)
- An official SpaceX render shows Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon lifting off from Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
Of note, SpaceX’s contract was valued at $2.6B, while Boeing received $4.2B, a full 60% more to complete an effectively identical task. Sadly, the US Congress systematically underfunded CCP during its formative years, largely a consequence of entrenched political and financial interests in preferentially funding NASA’s own SLS rocket and crewed Orion spacecraft above and at the cost of other rocket and spacecraft development initiatives. Insufficient funding likely contributed heavily to the years of delays subsequently suffered by the program and its commercial providers, pushing a nominal launch debut target from 2015 to 2017 before ultimately moving to 2018 and finally 2019, largely a result of unsurprising technical challenges faced by each provider as they entered into hardware- and testing-rich phases of development.
After approximately 5-6 years of concerted work, SpaceX and NASA are now as ready as they’ll ever be to conduct the first orbital launch of the Commercial Crew Program, to be followed as early as by Boeing’s own uncrewed orbital demonstration of its Starliner spacecraft. For those that have followed CCP for even part of its years-long saga, it’s more than a little surreal to be faced with the reality that such a milestone is barely two days distant.
Pad 39A: more than just a fresh coat
Meanwhile, SpaceX’s leased Pad 39A launch complex has undergone its own significant changes. Dating back to NASA’s Apollo Program, Pad 39A supported all but one of Saturn V’s 13 launches and more than 80 Space Shuttle launches before SpaceX took over the pad in 2014. In the five years the company has leased the facility, a range of changes have been made to the pad’s hardware, support facilities, and the primary metalwork known as service structures, one fixed (FSS) and one rolling (RSS). Aside from a bare skeleton of the RSS hinge, SpaceX has completely removed several hundred tons of Shuttle support hardware, while the FSS (the skyscraper-like rectangular tower) has remained largely unchanged, aside from the installation of a new level and Crew Dragon’s Crew Access Arm (CAA) on the ~110m (350 ft) tower.
- Space Shuttle Atlantis prepares for STS-129’s Pad 39A launch, November 2009. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
- 39A is seen here on February 11th, 2009 from a very similar angle to the 2009 photo of Shuttle Atlantis. (Tom Cross)
- Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon vertical at Pad 39A. (SpaceX)
- SpaceX technicians work on the tower and access arm, Feb. 11. (Tom Cross)
Most recently, the company has pursued a series of visually distinct changes to tower, painting it almost entirely black with white highlights and installing partially transparent black plexiglass panels along the full length of at least 2-3 of its four walls. While the paint color is almost certainly aesthetically motivated (it matches Falcon 9, Crew Dragon, and the access arm), the decision to enclose all or most of the FSS will likely be very well received the astronauts and technicians it will ultimately support, especially if SpaceX manages to keep out Florida’s notorious mosquitoes.
If SpaceX’s uncrewed DM-1 Crew Dragon demonstration is a success, the company could follow it up with Crew Dragon’s first launch with astronauts aboard as early as July 2019, officially returning 39A to active place in human spaceflight and marking the end of more than eight years spent without a domestic solution for transporting US astronauts into orbit.
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Investor's Corner
SpaceX gets initial stock coverage from Tesla’s biggest bull
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Elon Musk
Tesla Phone? Not quite, but close: analyst
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.








