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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon gets tentative NASA target for first astronaut launch

Crew Dragon arrives at the International Space Station for the first time ever during its March 2019 DM-1 mission. (NASA)

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New information from both NASA and the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) confirm that SpaceX is currently targeting – at least very tentatively so – Crew Dragon’s first launch with astronauts aboard no earlier than November 15th, 2019.

SpaceX is currently in the midst of a complex, high-stakes anomaly investigation after its flight-proven DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule suffered a catastrophic failure on April 20th. That investigation is nowhere near full closure due to the fact that the interests of NASA and the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) are equally interwoven into the work involved. Given the potential consequences of a similar failure occurring with astronauts (public or private) aboard, NASA is unlikely to accept anything less than a no-stone-left-unturned analysis and failure resolution, including any necessary design changes to Crew Dragon, no matter how far-reaching.

As NASASpaceflight.com’s Chris Gerbhardt notes, the Crew Dragon-related dates included in the NASA Flight Planning Integration Panel (FPIP) document are extremely tentative. They’re really only there to serve as placeholders for longer-term International Space Station planning, already a necessarily uncertain endeavor. Nevertheless, NASA’s NET November 15th 2019 planning date for Crew Dragon DM-2 (the first crewed test flight) was likely okayed by SpaceX – if not provided outright by the company – before going into an official FPIP.

In other words, November 15th is probably a real target but should be treated as an absolutely-positively-no-earlier-than launch date for Crew Dragon’s first astronaut-laden mission to the ISS. Back in late March (after DM-1’s successfully completion but before the capsule’s ground failure), anonymous Russian space industry sources confirmed that NASA’s DM-2 planning date was July 25th, while also indicating that the space agency was already preparing for delays that could push DM-2 as late as November 2019.

Specifically, an anonymous Roscosmos source told Russian outlet TASS that “the [DM-2] launch of Crew Dragon is likely to be postponed to November”. Given that that delay was rumored – albeit quasi-officially – and reported on nearly a month before Crew Dragon capsule C201 catastrophically exploded during testing, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a November 2019 DM-2 planning date officially released by NASA more three months later.

Crew Dragon stumbles, but optimism remains

As is often said, things were going perfectly up to the point that they weren’t. Despite 2-3 months of NASA paperwork and review-related delays, SpaceX’s first flightworthy Crew Dragon performed flawlessly during orbital rendezvous, docking, departure, and reentry to the extent that NASA and SpaceX officials were joking on-webcast about their partial disbelief. NASA’s lengthy post-mission review effectively concluded as much, although there is always room for improvement.

Due to those aforementioned DM-1 delays (roughly early January to early March), DM-2’s Crew Dragon assembly and integration was delayed in turn to preserve access in case DM-1 revealed flaws or necessary changes. Things didn’t quite go as planned, but the delayed integration has turned out to be beneficial, preserving access to most of Dragon 2’s critical subsystems without requiring major disassembly before any anomaly-related changes are implemented.

A May 2019 NASA update indicated that SpaceX’s DM-2 Crew Dragon (likely the vehicle previously assigned to the subsequent USCV-1 mission) is in the late stages of assembly. Once the anomaly investigation is complete and the DM-2 spacecraft is updated with any necessary modifications, SpaceX will likely require an additional ~4 months of work to reach flight-readiness. (NASA)

Per a late-May update from CCP manager Kathy Lueders, SpaceX has effectively shifted its Crew Dragon hardware assignments over one to account for the loss of the DM-1 capsule, C201. The vehicle previously assigned to DM-2 has been reassigned to a critical in-flight abort (IFA) test, previously meant to use flight-proven C201. Per charts provided during Lueders’ presentation, SpaceX’s replacement DM-2 capsule (likely the capsule previously assigned to the following mission, Crew-1) is in a sort of holding pattern to allow for modifications that may be required after the DM-1 failure investigation concludes.

Per a previous December 2018 update from Lueders, SpaceX’s original DM-2 spacecraft (now assigned to IFA) was expected to be fully assembled, shipped to Pad 39A, and ready for launch by June 2019. Accounting for DM-1’s delays, that spacecraft could likely be ready for the abort test as early as July or August, which meshes with post-anomaly indications that IFA is now scheduled no earlier than fall (September 2019)

Backlit by Earth’s limb, Crew Dragon DM-1’s ISS arrival was captured by astronaut Anne McClain on March 3rd. (NASA/Anne McClain)

All things considered, a pragmatic analysis suggests that Crew Dragon‘s DM-2 launch will most likely happen no earlier than Q1 2020, although miracles (and nightmares) are certainly possible. For the time being, all that really matters to SpaceX is wrapping up the C201 failure investigation as quickly and accurately as possible. Only after the company has publicly announced the results of that investigation should any IFA or DM-2 launch dates be taken with anything less than a full shaker of salt.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla announces delivery timeline for Cybertruck in new market

“Coming soon! Estimated deliveries in Q1 for UAE.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla announced its delivery timeline for the Cybertruck as it heads to a new market.

Tesla Cybertruck deliveries started in the United States and Canada back in late 2023. However, the company has been looking to expand the all-electric pickup to new markets, including the Middle East, for which it opened up orders for earlier this year.

Initially, Tesla planned to launch deliveries late this year, but there has been a slight adjustment to the timeline, and the company now anticipates the pickup to make its way to the first adopters in the United Arab Emirates in Q1 2026.

This was confirmed by the Tesla Cybertruck program’s lead engineer, Wes Morrill:

Tesla first opened orders for the Cybertruck in the Middle East in mid-September of this year. It will be priced at AED 404,900 for the Dual Motor All-Wheel-Drive ($110,254) and AED 454,900 ($123,869) for the Cyberbeast trim.

The Cybertruck has been a highly anticipated vehicle in many parts of the world, but its ability to be sold in various regions is what is truly causing delays in the company’s efforts to bring the electric pickup worldwide.

Tesla confirms Cybertruck will make its way out of North America this year

In Europe, various agencies have challenged the design of the Cybertruck, arguing that it is unsafe for pedestrians due to its sharp edges and “boxy” design.

Agencies in the EU have said the vehicle’s “blade-like” protrusions are a violation of rules that ban sharp exterior edges that could cause severe injuries.

In Asia, Tesla will likely have to develop a smaller, more compact version of the vehicle as it does not align with local standards for urban environments. However, Tesla filed for energy consumption approval for the Cybertruck in December 2024, but there has been no real update on the status of this particular inquiry.

Overall, these issues highlight a real bottleneck in futuristic vehicle designs and the out-of-date regulations that inhibit the vehicle from becoming more widely available. Of course, Tesla has teased some other designs, including a more traditional pickup or even a compact Cybertruck build, but the company is not one to shy away from its commitments.

Nevertheless, the Cybertruck will appear in the Middle East for the first time in 2026.

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Elon Musk

Tesla teases new AI5 chip that will revolutionize self-driving

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk revealed new information on Tesla’s AI5, previously known as Hardware 5, chip, for self-driving, which will be manufactured by both Samsung and TSMC.

The AI5 chip is Tesla’s next-generation hardware chip for its self-driving program, Optimus humanoid robots, and other AI-driven features in both vehicles and other applications. It will be the successor to the current AI4, previously known as Hardware 4, which is currently utilized in Tesla’s newest vehicles.

Elon Musk reveals Tesla’s HW5 release date, and that it won’t be called HW5

AI5 is specially optimized for Tesla use, as it will work alongside the company’s Neural Networks to focus on real-time inference to make safe and logical decisions during operation. It was first teased by Tesla in mid-2024 as Musk called it “an amazing design” and “an immense jump” from the current AI4 chip.

It will be roughly 4o times faster, have 8 times the raw compute, 9 times the memory capacity, 5 times the memory bandwidth, and 3 times the efficiency per watt.

It will be manufactured by both TSMC and Samsung at their Arizona and Texas fab locations, respectively.

Here’s what Musk revealed about the chip yesterday:

Different Versions

Samsung and TSMC will make slightly different versions of the AI5 chip, “simply because they translate designs to physical form differently.” However, Musk said the goal is that its AI software would work identically.

This was a real concern for some who are familiar with chip manufacturing, as Apple’s A9 “Chipgate” saga seemed to be echoing through Tesla.

Back in 2015, it was found that Apple’s A9 chips had different performances based on who manufactured them. TSMC and Samsung were both building the chips, but it was found that Samsung’s chips had shorter battery life than TSMC-fabricated versions.

Apple concluded that the variance was about 2-3 percent. However, Tesla will look to avoid this altogether.

Release and Implementation into Vehicles

Musk said that some samples will be available next year, and “maybe a small number of units” would equip the chip as well. However, high-volume production is only possible in 2027.

This means, based on Tesla’s own timeline for Cybercab production in Q2 2026, early iterations of the vehicle would rely on AI4. Many believe AI4 can be utilized for solved self-driving, but the power of subsequent versions, including AI5 and beyond, will be more capable.

AI6 and Beyond

AI6 will utilize the same fabs as AI5, but there would be a theoretical boost in performance by two times with this version.

AI6 could enter volume production by mid-2028. However, AI7, which Musk only briefly mentioned, “will need different fabs, as it is more adventurous.”

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Tesla makes a splash at China’s Import Expo with Cybercab and Optimus

It appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.

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Image: Tesla China
Image: Tesla China

Tesla’s fully autonomous Cybercab made its first appearance in the Asia-Pacific region at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai on November 5, becoming the centerpiece of an event that drew 12 of the world’s leading automakers. 

The new model offers a glimpse into Tesla’s driverless ride-hailing future, and based on the reception of the event’s attendees, it appears that Elon Musk’s vision is something that still resonates with people.

Tesla showcases its driverless vision with the Cybercab

At this year’s expo, themed “Mobility, Infinite Possibilities,” Tesla’s futuristic two-seat Cybercab stood out as a showcase of complete autonomy. According to Tesla staff, the vehicle lacks both a steering wheel and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla’s cameras and an end-to-end neural network designed for full self-driving.

The Cybercab will ultimately serve in the company’s expanding Robotaxi fleet, a cornerstone of Elon Musk’s long-promised autonomous mobility network. During the event, a Tesla employee emphasized that the Cybercab’s model’s compact layout reflects real-world usage, as 92% of trips involve just one or two passengers, as noted in a Sina News report. Trips that require more passengers could easily be handled by the Model 3 and Model Y, which are both capable of seating four, or even five passengers.

Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot that is designed for both home and industrial use, was also present at the event. Similar to the Cybercab, Optimus also attracted quite a lot of attention from the event’s attendees.

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Automakers reaffirm commitment to Chinese innovation

Other global automakers, including Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Honda, also displayed cutting-edge concept cars and intelligent systems, but few captured the same interest as Tesla’s bold showcase of its autonomy and robotics.

Beyond new models, this year’s CIIE highlighted a renewed focus on local innovation and collaboration in China’s rapidly evolving EV landscape. Executives from Volkswagen, Audi, and General Motors reaffirmed that their long-term strategies center on “in China, for China,” strengthening R&D operations and forming tech partnerships with domestic suppliers.

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