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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon gets tentative NASA target for first astronaut launch

Crew Dragon arrives at the International Space Station for the first time ever during its March 2019 DM-1 mission. (NASA)

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New information from both NASA and the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) confirm that SpaceX is currently targeting – at least very tentatively so – Crew Dragon’s first launch with astronauts aboard no earlier than November 15th, 2019.

SpaceX is currently in the midst of a complex, high-stakes anomaly investigation after its flight-proven DM-1 Crew Dragon capsule suffered a catastrophic failure on April 20th. That investigation is nowhere near full closure due to the fact that the interests of NASA and the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) are equally interwoven into the work involved. Given the potential consequences of a similar failure occurring with astronauts (public or private) aboard, NASA is unlikely to accept anything less than a no-stone-left-unturned analysis and failure resolution, including any necessary design changes to Crew Dragon, no matter how far-reaching.

As NASASpaceflight.com’s Chris Gerbhardt notes, the Crew Dragon-related dates included in the NASA Flight Planning Integration Panel (FPIP) document are extremely tentative. They’re really only there to serve as placeholders for longer-term International Space Station planning, already a necessarily uncertain endeavor. Nevertheless, NASA’s NET November 15th 2019 planning date for Crew Dragon DM-2 (the first crewed test flight) was likely okayed by SpaceX – if not provided outright by the company – before going into an official FPIP.

In other words, November 15th is probably a real target but should be treated as an absolutely-positively-no-earlier-than launch date for Crew Dragon’s first astronaut-laden mission to the ISS. Back in late March (after DM-1’s successfully completion but before the capsule’s ground failure), anonymous Russian space industry sources confirmed that NASA’s DM-2 planning date was July 25th, while also indicating that the space agency was already preparing for delays that could push DM-2 as late as November 2019.

Specifically, an anonymous Roscosmos source told Russian outlet TASS that “the [DM-2] launch of Crew Dragon is likely to be postponed to November”. Given that that delay was rumored – albeit quasi-officially – and reported on nearly a month before Crew Dragon capsule C201 catastrophically exploded during testing, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a November 2019 DM-2 planning date officially released by NASA more three months later.

Crew Dragon stumbles, but optimism remains

As is often said, things were going perfectly up to the point that they weren’t. Despite 2-3 months of NASA paperwork and review-related delays, SpaceX’s first flightworthy Crew Dragon performed flawlessly during orbital rendezvous, docking, departure, and reentry to the extent that NASA and SpaceX officials were joking on-webcast about their partial disbelief. NASA’s lengthy post-mission review effectively concluded as much, although there is always room for improvement.

Due to those aforementioned DM-1 delays (roughly early January to early March), DM-2’s Crew Dragon assembly and integration was delayed in turn to preserve access in case DM-1 revealed flaws or necessary changes. Things didn’t quite go as planned, but the delayed integration has turned out to be beneficial, preserving access to most of Dragon 2’s critical subsystems without requiring major disassembly before any anomaly-related changes are implemented.

A May 2019 NASA update indicated that SpaceX’s DM-2 Crew Dragon (likely the vehicle previously assigned to the subsequent USCV-1 mission) is in the late stages of assembly. Once the anomaly investigation is complete and the DM-2 spacecraft is updated with any necessary modifications, SpaceX will likely require an additional ~4 months of work to reach flight-readiness. (NASA)

Per a late-May update from CCP manager Kathy Lueders, SpaceX has effectively shifted its Crew Dragon hardware assignments over one to account for the loss of the DM-1 capsule, C201. The vehicle previously assigned to DM-2 has been reassigned to a critical in-flight abort (IFA) test, previously meant to use flight-proven C201. Per charts provided during Lueders’ presentation, SpaceX’s replacement DM-2 capsule (likely the capsule previously assigned to the following mission, Crew-1) is in a sort of holding pattern to allow for modifications that may be required after the DM-1 failure investigation concludes.

Per a previous December 2018 update from Lueders, SpaceX’s original DM-2 spacecraft (now assigned to IFA) was expected to be fully assembled, shipped to Pad 39A, and ready for launch by June 2019. Accounting for DM-1’s delays, that spacecraft could likely be ready for the abort test as early as July or August, which meshes with post-anomaly indications that IFA is now scheduled no earlier than fall (September 2019)

Backlit by Earth’s limb, Crew Dragon DM-1’s ISS arrival was captured by astronaut Anne McClain on March 3rd. (NASA/Anne McClain)

All things considered, a pragmatic analysis suggests that Crew Dragon‘s DM-2 launch will most likely happen no earlier than Q1 2020, although miracles (and nightmares) are certainly possible. For the time being, all that really matters to SpaceX is wrapping up the C201 failure investigation as quickly and accurately as possible. Only after the company has publicly announced the results of that investigation should any IFA or DM-2 launch dates be taken with anything less than a full shaker of salt.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

Elon Musk

Elon Musk reiterates shocking xAI detail, and hints at an upcoming monster

He also announced that xAI’s upcoming model, Grok 5, will begin training very soon.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk has reiterated a rather shocking tidbit about xAI’s impressive scores at the ARC-AGI benchmark.

He also announced that xAI’s upcoming model, Grok 5, will begin training very soon.

xAI results on the ARC-AGI benchmark

In a recent post on social media platform X, Greg Kamradt, President of the ARC Prize Foundation, noted that Grok 4 has been used in two SOTA submissions to the ARC-AGI V1 and V2 benchmarks. The submissions, which were the best that the foundation has encountered to date, were done using xAI’s large language model, Grok 4. 

As per Kamradt, when asked about why the submissions were done using Grok 4, the authors stated that “It was the best model I used in testing.” Musk was evidently proud of this accomplishment, though he also highlighted that these accomplishments were attained with just Grok 4. This suggests that once Grok 5 is in the picture, xAI’s lead in the AI sector could become notable.

Grok 5 incoming

Elon Musk has shared a number of tidbits about Grok 5 as of late. In recent comments on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO stated that he believes Grok 5 has the potential to actually reach artificial general intelligence (AGI). This suggests that Grok 5 would be nothing short of a monster, as it could be capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a substantial margin.

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Grok 5 may also be coming soon. As per Musk in another post on X, xAI will be starting the training of Grok 5 in a few weeks. Musk definitely seems to be highly optimistic about the capabilities of Grok 5, with the CEO stating late last month that the update would be coming before the end of the year and that it will be “crushingly good.”

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SpaceX is partnering with chipmakers to enable Starlink satellite-to-cell service

President Gwynne Shotwell outlined the effort during a space industry conference in Paris.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is working with microchip manufacturers to integrate satellite-connectivity hardware into smartphones, advancing its plan for direct-to-device services through Starlink. 

The move follows the company’s $17 billion acquisition of wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp., a deal that positions SpaceX to operate more independently of traditional telecom carriers. 

President Gwynne Shotwell outlined the effort during a space industry conference in Paris this week, as noted in a Bloomberg News report.

Starlink direct-to-device

Starlink currently serves millions of customers in over 100 countries, primarily through ground-based dishes. The company, however, is now expanding into satellite-to-cell service, which should enable unmodified phones to connect directly with orbiting satellites. While SpaceX has a partnership with T-Mobile US, the EchoStar spectrum purchase gives it more control to negotiate with global carriers on its own terms.

“We’re working with chip manufacturers to get the proper chips in phones,” the SpaceX President stated. “We will now be initiating discussions with telcos in a different way now. Now it’s our spectrum, but we want to work with them, almost providing capacity and wholesaling capacity to their customers.”

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The company plans to launch satellites capable of supporting its direct-to-device business within two years, with early mobile phone testing expected by late 2026.

Starship program continues test flights

Shotwell also addressed SpaceX’s Starship program, which recently completed its 10th test flight in August. She said the mission met all objectives, providing a critical morale boost to teams after a challenging development year. 

“My Starship team needed that win,” Shotwell noted. “Development programs always are kind of a 24/7 operation, and I was really pleased for them.”

SpaceX is planning to fly one more iteration of the current Starship prototype, known as V2, before transitioning to the next-generation V3 vehicle. That version, expected to debut late this year or early 2026, is designed to be more capable and support eventual crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. 

“The V3, which we want to fly hopefully late this year, but maybe early next year, is really the vehicle that could take humans to the moon and Mars,” Shotwell stated.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk says xAI has a chance to reach AGI with Grok 5

The comment came after Grok 4 posted strong results on the ARC-AGI benchmark.

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xAI-supercomputer-memphis-environment-pushback
(Credit: xAI)

Elon Musk suggested this week that his artificial intelligence startup xAI has the potential to reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) with the next version of its large language model, Grok 5. 

The comment came after Grok 4 posted strong results on the ARC-AGI benchmark, which tests reasoning and problem-solving ability.

Musk sees Grok 5 as AGI candidate

In a post on X, user @amXFreeze shared the latest results of the ARC-AGI leaderboard, which showed Grok 4 outpacing rival systems such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT in problem-solving and open program synthesis tasks. 

Musk reacted to the performance by stating that “I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.” 

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to an AI system that is capable of matching or surpassing human-level intelligence across tasks such as thinking, reasoning, and other domains by a notable margin, as noted in a report from Benzinga. AI companies today are actively pursuing AGI.

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xAI’s speed 

While xAI was only established in March 2023, the startup has grown aggressively. Since its founding, it has rapidly risen in the AI segment and its Grok large language model has become a mainstream option for everyday users, especially on social media platform X. The company is still growing aggressively, and it is currently expanding its Colossus supercomputer cluster in Memphis. 

During xAI’s Engineering Open House event in San Francisco in its early days, Elon Musk highlighted that speed would be the company’s primary competitive edge. To highlight this, Musk stated that “No SR-71 Blackbird was ever shot down and it only had one strategy: to accelerate.” So far, xAI is definitely playing this role very well. 

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