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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon to launch astronauts in July, says Russian source

Crew Dragon is lifted onto recovery vessel GO Searcher after the spacecraft's flawless inaugural launch and reentry debut. (NASA/Cory Huston)

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A source familiar with Russia’s aerospace industry recently informed state newspaper RIA Novosti that NASA has provided Russian space agency Roscosmos with an updated planning schedule for International Space Station (ISS) operations, including a preliminary target for SpaceX’s first Crew Dragon launch with astronauts aboard.

According to RIA’s source, NASA informed Roscosmos that the agency was tentatively planning for the launch of SpaceX’s Demonstration Mission 2 (DM-2) as early as July 25th, with the spacecraft departing the ISS, reentering the atmosphere, and safely returning astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to Earth on August 5th. In a bizarre turn of events, Russian news agency TASS published a separate article barely 12 hours later, in which – once again – an anonymous space agency source told the outlet that “the [DM-2] launch of Crew Dragon is likely to be postponed to November”. For the time being, the reality likely stands somewhere in the middle.

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1110071371701211137

While it’s hard not to jump to conclusions about the oddity of two wholly contradictory reports arising from similar sources in similar articles just half a day apart, it’s just as likely that the near-simultaneous publishing of both TASS and RIA stories is mainly a coincidence. At the same time, truth can be found in both comments made by the anonymous source(s), while they also offer a sort of best-case and worst-case scenario for the first crewed launch of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft.

RIA began the series on March 22nd with a brief news blurb featuring one substantive quote from the aforementioned space industry source.

“The American side informed the Russian side that the launch of the [first crewed launch of] Dragon-2…to the ISS…is scheduled for July 25. The docking with the station is scheduled [to occur around one day later]. The separation from the ISS and return to Earth is expected on August 5,” the agency’s source said.

https://twitter.com/AstroBehnken/status/1109250971757010945

Put in a slightly different way, NASA informed Roscosmos that it had begun to loosely plan for the launch of SpaceX’s DM-2 no earlier than (NET) late July, much like NASA and SpaceX publicly announced that Crew Dragon’s DM-1 launch debut was scheduled NET January 17th as of early December 2018. DM-1’s actual debut wound up occurring on March 2nd, a delay of approximately six weeks. The cause(s) behind the discrepancy between NASA’s first serious planning date and the actual launch remains unknown but it’s safe to say that things took quite a bit longer than expected even after Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 were technically “go” for launch.

Although NASA and SpaceX now have the luxury of a vast cache of flight data and the practical experience derived from conducting Crew Dragon’s first – and nearly flawless – orbital launch and ISS rendezvous, Crew Dragon’s DM-2 mission remains an entirely different animal. Aside from requiring a number of significant hardware changes and introducing the visceral pressure of real human lives hanging in the balance, DM-2 will be a major first for the NASA after having spent the better part of eight years unable to launch its own astronauts into orbit.

https://twitter.com/aallan/status/1108501528451653635

A ‘race’ no more

Meanwhile, Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft – a companion to Crew Dragon under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program – has suffered multiple setbacks in 2019, reportedly pushing the vehicle’s uncrewed launch debut from April to NET August, a delay of at least four months. As a result, nothing short of severe anomalies during Crew Dragon hardware preparation and/or NASA’s reviews of DM-1 performance and DM-2 flight-readiness could prevent SpaceX from becoming the first commercial entity to build, launch, and operate a crewed spacecraft in the history of spaceflight.

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The readiness of SpaceX’s Crew Dragon DM-2 spacecraft as of December 2018. (NASA)
The first truly crewed Crew Dragon is seen here in the late stages of assembly at SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory, August 13. (Pauline Acalin)

According to a December 2018 update provided during NASA’s quarterly Advisory Council meetings, the entirety of Crew Dragon DM-2’s manufacturing and integration may already be complete, with the capsule potentially heading to SpaceX’s Florida payload processing facilities later this week. NAC’s December 2018 dates did not, however, account for the DM-1 launch delays that shortly followed, plausibly impacting the completion of DM-2 integration and pad delivery to ensure that any potential anomalies experienced during Crew Dragon’s test flight could be resolved in Hawthorne, CA.

According to NASA and SpaceX, DM-2’s Crew Dragon will need to be retrofitted with thermal regulation hardware to prevent Draco thruster plumbing from freezing under a handful of specific conditions on orbit, as well as potential modifications to the craft’s parachute system and the installation of four windows instead of two. SpaceX will also need to install Crew Dragon’s first orbit-ready display and control hardware. Finally, SpaceX has opted to conduct an in-flight abort (IFA) test of Crew Dragon to verify that the spacecraft can safely carry astronauts to safety from the moment of launch to orbital insertion, a test that will have to be completed successfully and reviewed by NASA before the agency allows SpaceX to proceed with DM-2.

Crew Dragon arrives at the ISS, nosecone open. (NASA)

All of the above tasks – including major agency-wide reviews of Crew Dragon’s performance during its DM-1 debut – must be completed before SpaceX will be permitted to launch astronauts to the ISS, all of which inherently add some level of uncertainty to DM-2’s practical launch schedule. If all reviews and modifications proceed flawlessly, including a perfect in-flight abort test as early as late June, it’s possible that SpaceX and NASA could be prepared to launch Crew Dragon once more by the end of July.

In reality, it’s extremely unlikely that everything will proceed perfectly, as evidenced by the drawn-out process required for NASA and SpaceX to eventually reach flight-readiness prior to DM-1. If a significant number of challenges arise over the next few months of reviews and work, it’s not out of the question for DM-2’s launch to slip to Q4 2019 or Q1 2020. Splitting the difference, it would be safest to bet that Crew Dragon will lift off with astronauts aboard no earlier than August or September. Regardless, a great many exciting milestones are soon to come for SpaceX’s first human spaceflight program. Stay tuned as SpaceX prepares to ship the second flightworthy Crew Dragon to Florida.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX pitches subscription model for Trump’s Golden Dome

SpaceX pitched a subscription model for Trump’s Golden Dome. Faster deployment, but at the cost of gov control & steady bills.

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(Credit: SpaceX/X)

SpaceX pitched a subscription model for U.S. President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome for America.

SpaceX is a frontrunner to build key components of President Trump’s Golden Dome–formerly known as the Iron Dome. In January, President Trump signed an Executive Order to build an Iron Dome missile defense shield to protect America.

The ambitious project has drawn intense interest from defense startups, including Epirus, Ursa Major, and Armada. Companies with long-standing contracts with the U.S. government are also vying to build Trump’s Golden Dome, like Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

According to six Reuters sources, SpaceX is partnering with Palantir and Anduril on a Golden Dome proposal for the U.S. government.

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The trio is pitching a plan to deploy 400 to 1,000+ satellites for missile detection and tracking, with a separate fleet of 200 attack satellites armed with missiles or lasers to neutralize threats. SpaceX will mainly focus on the sensing satellites, not weaponization.

SpaceX reportedly proposed a subscription service model for Trump’s Golden Dome, where the government pays for access rather than owning the system outright. This approach could bypass some Pentagon procurement protocols, enabling faster deployment. However, it risks locking the government into ongoing costs and reduced control over development and pricing.

A few Pentagon officials are concerned about SpaceX’s subscription model for the Golden Dome because it is a rare approach for major defense programs. U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein is exploring whether SpaceX should own and operate its segment or if the U.S. should retain ownership with contractors managing operations.

The Golden Dome’s innovative scope and SpaceX’s subscription model signal a new era for defense contracting. However, Trump’s Golden Dome program is in its early stages, giving the Pentagon time to consider SpaceX’s subscription model proposal. As the Pentagon weighs options, SpaceX’s technical prowess and unconventional approach position it as a key player in Trump’s vision for a robust missile shield.

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Bell Canada takes aim at potential Starlink subsidies

Details of Bell Canada’s anti-Starlink efforts were shared by the Financial Times (FT).

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Credit: SpaceX

Tensions are rising in Canada’s telecommunications landscape as the nation’s leading telecom provider, Bell Canada, seeks to block Elon Musk’s Starlink from accessing potential subsidies.

Details of Bell Canada’s anti-Starlink efforts were shared by the Financial Times (FT).

Bell’s Push to Block Starlink Subsidies

As noted by the FT, Bell Canada and its subsidiary Northwestel are lobbying against potential subsidies that Starlink could receive for providing internet access to the country’s remote northern regions, including the Arctic. In correspondence obtained by the Times, Bell argued that Starlink’s flat pricing proves that it does not require support to operate in Canada’s remote areas. 

A decision about the matter will be announced by the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). That being said, the CRTC stated in January that a subsidy would help make “internet services more reliable and affordable for residents of the Far North.”

Starlink’s Defense

SpaceX, Starlink’s parent company, has fired back at Bell, stating that blocking subsidies would harm competition and leave isolated communities such as First Nations groups with fewer, more expensive, and less reliable internet options. 

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While Canada’s two biggest telecommunications groups, Bell and Rogers, still dominate the country’s internet and phone service market, Starlink has been making progress in its efforts to saturate the country’s remote regions. Starlink received official approval to operate in October 2022, and since then, it has grown its customer base to 400,000 active customers as of last year.

Musk’s Empire Under Fire in Canada

The subsidy clash is part of a broader Canadian backlash against Musk’s ventures, which seems to be fueled by his role in the Trump administration. Apart from Bell’s anti-Starlink efforts, Ontario also axed a $100 million Starlink contract. Quebec has noted that it would not be renewing its Starlink subsidy scheme as well. 

Tesla, on the other hand, lost government EV subsidies, with Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland leading the charge. As per Geoff White of the Public Interest Advocacy Center, “We should not be giving one cent of public money to an unaccountable imperialist like Elon Musk.”

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Tesla China’s first Megapack exports are headed for a big battery in Australia

The Tesla Megapack batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

A few days ago, Tesla announced that the first Megapack battery units from its Shanghai “Megafactory” were being shipped to Australia.

As per recent reports, the massive grid-scale Tesla batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.

The Shanghai Megafactory

The Shanghai Megafactory is Tesla’s first battery storage factory outside the United States. Built close to Gigafactory Shanghai, the Shanghai Megafactory is expected to supply Megapack batteries to both China and foreign markets.

The Megapack represents a huge portion of Tesla Energy’s deployments. With 3.9 MWh of energy, Tesla notes that each Megapack is enough to power 3,600 homes for an hour. The Shanghai Megafactory has a capacity to produce 10,000 Megapacks per year to start. 

Mike Snyder, vice president of Tesla, shared his optimism about the Shanghai Megafactory. “Megafactory gives us the ability to scale production and efficiency. We can lower logistics costs as well as product costs, and grow the business to new markets,” he stated.

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Australia Battery Projects

As noted in a report from Renew Economy, the first Megapack shipments from the Shanghai Megafactory will be installed in the second stage of the Western Downs battery project, which is being built by Neoen. The Western Downs battery project involves a 460 MWp solar farm coupled with a 540 MW/1,080 MWh big battery system.

Tesla has also been listed as the battery supplier for the upcoming Calala battery in Tamworth, New South Wales, which will involve 138 Megapack units. The Megapacks for the Calala battery will likely be imported from the Shanghai Megafactory as well.

Data from Rosetta Analytics suggests that Tesla is currently the dominant player in Australia’s energy storage segment, with the company holding over 30% of the market. Tesla has become a notable presence in Australia’s energy sector for years, especially following the company’s buildout of the Hornsdale “big battery,” which was initially comprised of Tesla Powerpacks, in 2017.

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