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SpaceX’s drone ships near return-to-action with Block 5 Falcon 9 landings

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8 years ago

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Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin’s recent trips to drone ship Just Read The Instructions’ berth in Port of San Pedro shows that SpaceX technicians are nearly done preparing the hibernating vessel for a return to Falcon 9 rocket recoveries in the Pacific Ocean, a ten-month drought likely to end for good on July 20th.

Although it’s hard to believe, SpaceX’s West Coast autonomous spaceport drone ship (ASDS) has been effectively marooned at its Port of Los Angeles berth for more than nine full months, with the vessel’s last recovery occurring just after the October 9 launch of ten Iridium NEXT satellites, the fourth of five SpaceX Vandenberg launches in 2017 (and the fourth of four West Coast booster landings).

SpaceX’s West coast drone ship Just Read The Instructions getting some much needed fresh paint in 2017. (Instagram, anonymous)

Three months after that October mission and booster recovery, SpaceX expended their next California launch and marked the beginning of a streak of eight missions where flight-proven Block 3 and 4 boosters could have been recovered but no attempts were made. While intermixed with the spectacle of Falcon Heavy’s dual side booster landings at LZ-1, the debut launch and recovery of Falcon 9 Block 5, and two other Block 4 booster recoveries, the majority of SpaceX’s launches since December 2017 have been treated as expendable – put simply, the company decided that recovering and refurbishing twice-flown boosters of older Falcon 9 blocks was not worth the effort and expense.

Instead, those well-worn boosters were expended in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans after partially supporting a series of experimental tests designed to gather additional data on the recovery envelope of SpaceX’s partially reusable rockets. The rationale makes sense – SpaceX fundamentally sacrificed some of its older, less-reusable Falcon 9 boosters for the sake of knowledge that may allow their highly reusable Falcon 9 Block 5 predecessors a better chance of successfully landing even after exceptionally fast, hot, and high-energy recoveries, a necessity if the upgraded rockets are to be reused 10 to 100 times, as is the goal.

Although Just Read The Instructions spent several months without a full complement of maneuvering thrusters, thanks in part to efforts to keep its besieged East coast sister Of Course I Still Love You operational, photographer Pauline Acalin’s photos over the last several months show that the vessel now has four full thrusters installed and ready to bring it back into rocket recovery action in the Pacific Ocean.

Still, the abrupt return to expendable rocket launches after a year – 2017 – filled to the brim with 18 of 18 successful launches and 14 of 14 successful landings led to a decidedly fascinating vein of disapproval in the SpaceX enthusiast and broader spaceflight fan communities – people had grown accustomed to the adrenaline-soaked thrill of routine Falcon 9 rocket landings. Some expressed worries that regularly and intentionally expending large hunks of metal in the ocean could harm their ecosystems and was tantamount to littering. None the wiser, every other launch provider in the world continues to expend all of their rocket boosters without any attempts at recovery like the nearly all non-Shuttle rocket launches in the past six decades, and their tepidly reusable next-generation rockets are unlikely to even begin attempting hardware recovery until the mid-2020s at the earliest.

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Frankly, SpaceX’s abrupt successes with orbital-class rocket recovery struck a chord with observers, demonstrating just how intuitive attempting to recover expensive rocket hardware really is, while also bringing into clear focus the actual insanity of failing to try and of the seemingly ad-hoc rationalization of expendable rocketry. Thankfully, we still have SpaceX, and the company’s spate of rocket booster sacrifices is likely just one expendable launch away from coming to an effective end for the indefinite future, with that particular launch – CRS-15 – scheduled less than two weeks from now, on June 29th.

 

After CRS-15, which will probably see its twice-flown Block 4 booster expended in the Atlantic, a combination of Block 5 Falcon 9s and Heavies will theoretically bring to an end the practice of expending orbital rocket boosters, at least on SpaceX’s watch. Considering that the upgraded boosters have been designed and built to launch as many as ten times with minimal refurbishment and potentially 100+ times with regular maintenance, the opportunity cost of an expended Block 5 rocket booster is so high that it is difficult to imagine SpaceX will be easily swayed to expend one until it’s flown at least several times prior.

We here at Teslarati eagerly await the imminent demise of expendable rockets, set to begin in earnest – at least for SpaceX – around July 19th and 20th with two Falcon 9 Block 5 launches on two coasts, one with Telstar 19V (Florida) and the other with Iridium-7 (California).

Follow us for live updates, peeks behind the scenes, and photos from Teslarati’s East and West coast photographers.

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Teslarati   –   Instagram – Twitter

Tom Cross – Twitter

Pauline Acalin – Twitter

Eric Ralph – Twitter

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab

“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.

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7 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.

The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.

The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.

Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production

Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.

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It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.

Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”

As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.

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Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.

It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst

The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.

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8 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear. 

Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website. 

Normalized December Deliveries

Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.

“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.

“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“

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Tesla’s United States market share

Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States. 

“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter.  For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.

“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“

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Elon Musk

Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’

“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.

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9 hours ago

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January 2, 2026

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”

Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.

Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report

Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.

In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.

However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:

“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”

It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.

While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.

Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.

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