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SpaceX's Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut schedule revealed by Elon Musk
On the heels of a brand new animation simulating the spacecraft’s next orbital launch milestone, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a tentative schedule for Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut.
Known as Demo-2, short for Crew Dragon’s second orbital demonstration mission, the launch could make SpaceX the first commercial company in history to send astronauts to space (i.e. orbit), as well as the first private company to deliver astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). If things go as planned over the next several months, that should kick off a new era where NASA will routinely rely on SpaceX (and Boeing) to ensure that the US has a continued presence in space.
The International Space Station has been continuously crewed by astronauts since October 31st, 2000, representing nearly two decades that humanity has had an uninterrupted presence in space. Supported by regular NASA Space Shuttle and Russian Soyuz launches that enabled space agencies to safely send astronauts to and from the space station, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and Boeing’s Starliner are nearly ready to pick up the torch that NASA and the United States fumbled when the Shuttle was prematurely canceled in 2011.
Over the last five years, SpaceX has been working tirelessly to design, build, and test Crew Dragon – all in the name of ensuring that it will be one of the most reliable and capable human-rated spacecraft ever flown once it begins taking astronauts to and from the ISS. As with almost all human-rated spacecraft in history, Crew Dragon’s development has not been without its hurdles and detours, ranging from challenges with the spacecraft’s parachute recovery systems to a catastrophic capsule explosion during thruster testing.
As a result, SpaceX has put extra effort into optimizing and redesigning Crew Dragon’s many subsystems to ensure that all work exactly as intended. Thankfully, all of Crew Dragon’s development hurdles have occurred during testing specifically designed to reveal such problems, meaning that no humans have been harmed (or killed) over the course of the program. In the history of human spaceflight, it has often been the case that catastrophic spacecraft failure modes are only discovered after operational flights began, resulting in the deaths of numerous astronauts during Soyuz, Space Shuttle, and SpaceShipTwo – as well as three NASA astronauts during Apollo 1 ground testing.
Spaceflight is nevertheless a dangerous endeavor, at least for the time being, so it’s entirely possible that Crew Dragon will ultimately suffer accidents or failures during crewed missions, evidenced most recently by Starliner’s failure to reach the space station during the Boeing’s spacecraft’s first orbital launch. Still, both companies are working hard to ensure that even in the event of a failure, their spacecraft are able to protect their astronaut passengers and safely return them to Earth.
In line with that, SpaceX (unlike Boeing) opted to perform a live In-Flight Abort (IFA) test with Crew Dragon before allowing the spacecraft to begin astronaut launches. Scheduled to launch as early as January 11th, SpaceX will launch a Dragon spacecraft atop Falcon 9 and simulate a rocket failure during the most stressful point of launch. If Crew Dragon can fire up its abort thrusters and whisk its hypothetical passengers to safety, chances are that the spacecraft will be able to do the same at any other point during launch – from before liftoff all the way to orbit.
SpaceX has been developing its first human-rated spacecraft since it began build Cargo Dragon more than a decade ago – all paths for the company have ultimately pointed towards human spaceflight. According to CEO Elon Musk, the Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 launch vehicle assigned to support the company’s inaugural astronaut launch will be in Florida and ready for flight as early as February 2020, a few-month delay compared to the often overly-optimistic executive’s previous Nov/Dec 2019 target.
Although the hardware could be ready to launch three months (or less) from now, Musk believes that the NASA preflight reviews that must follow will likely take “a few more months” – unfortunately likely given that Crew Dragon’s uncrewed launch debut (Demo-1) was likely ready for flight almost two months before NASA finally cleared SpaceX to launch.
Ultimately, as long as Crew Dragon’s IFA test goes well next month, it’s likely that the spacecraft will launch twice in the first half of 2020, potentially making history sometime in the second quarter.
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Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
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Tesla FSD V14.2 starts rolling out to initial batch of vehicles
It would likely only be a matter of time before FSD V14.2 videos are posted and shared on social media.
Tesla has begun pushing Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2 to its initial batch of vehicles. The update was initially observed by Tesla owners and veteran FSD users on social media platform X on Friday.
So far, reports of the update have been shared by Model Y owners in California whose vehicles are equipped with the company’s AI4 hardware, though it would not be surprising if more Tesla owners across the country receive the update as well.
Based on the release notes of the update, key improvements in FSD V14.2 include a revamped neural network for better detection of emergency vehicles, obstacles, and human gestures, as well as options to select arrival spots.
It would likely only be a matter of time before FSD V14.2 videos are posted and shared on social media.
Following are the release notes of FSD (Supervised) V14.2, as shared on X by longtime FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog.
Release Notes
2025.38.9.5
Currently Installed
FSD (Supervised) v14.2
Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2 includes:
- Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, leveraging higher resolution features to further improve scenarios like handling emergency vehicles, obstacles on the road, and human gestures.
- Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
- Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances.
- Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
- Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
- Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
- Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
- Improve handling of several scenarios including: unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school busses.
- Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and improve scenarios like handling emergency vehicles, obstacles on the road, and human gestures.
- Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
- Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
- Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
- Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
- Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
- Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
- Improve handling of several scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
- Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
- Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!
Upcoming Improvements:
- Overall smoothness and sentience
- Parking spot selection and parking quality
The Tesla Model X has always been one of the company’s most loved vehicles, despite its low sales figures, which can be attributed to its high price tag.
However, the Model X has been a signature item on Tesla’s menu of cars, most notably recognized by its Falcon Wing Doors, which are aware of its surroundings and open according to what’s around it.
But recent improvements to the Model X were looking slim to none, but it appears most of the fixes actually happened under the body, at least according to Tesla’s Vice President of Powertrain, Lars Moravy.
In a recent interview with Car and Driver, Moravy detailed all of the changes to the 2026 iteration of the vehicle, which was about 400 pounds lighter than it was originally. The biggest change is a modification with the rear motor, switching from an induction-type motor to a permanent-magnet design and optimizing the half-shafts, which shed about 100 pounds.
Tesla also got “almost 80 pounds out of the interior bits and pieces,” which “included making parts thinner, different manufacturing process choices, and incorporating airbag-deployment requirements into the headliner fabric,” the report said.
Additionally, the standard five-passenger, bench seat configuration saved 50 pounds by ditching pedestal mounting. This also helped with practicality, as it helped the seat fold flat. Engineers at Tesla also saved 44 pounds from the high-voltage wiring through optimizing the wiring from the charge-port DC/DC converter and switching from copper to aluminum wiring.
Tesla makes a decision on the future of its flagship Model S and Model X
Tesla also simplified the cooling system by reducing the number of radiators. It also incorporated Nürburgring cooling requirements for the Plaid variant, which saved nearly 30 pounds.
Many Tesla fans will be familiar with the megacastings, manufactured in-house by presses from IDRA, which also saves more than 20 pounds and boosts torsional stiffness by around 10 percent. Tweaks to the suspension also saved 10 pounds.
People were truly disappointed with what Tesla did with the Model S and Model X, arguing that the cars needed a more severe exterior overhaul, which might be true. However, Tesla really did a lot to reduce the weight of the vehicle, which helps increase range and efficiency. According to Grok, every 200 pounds removed adds between 7 and 15 percent to range estimations.
This makes sense considering the range estimations both increased by 7 percent from the Model X’s 2025 configuration to the 2026 builds. Range increased on the All-Wheel-Drive trim from 329 miles to 352 miles, while the Plaid went from 314 miles to 335 miles.
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
Tesla FSD V14.2 starts rolling out to initial batch of vehicles
