News
SpaceX sends reused Falcon 9 booster west for first California Starlink launches
SpaceX has shipped the first of one or two flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters from Florida to California in the latest sign that the company is preparing to begin dedicated polar Starlink launches in the near future.
On May 27th, a Reddit post revealed a Falcon 9 booster arriving at Vandenberg Air/Space Force Base (VAFB), the home of SpaceX’s West Coast SLC-4E launch pad. Only truly useful for polar or high-inclination launches with satellites that need to orbit the Earth’s poles instead of the equator, SpaceX has only used SLC-4E twice in the last two years – once in June 2019 and most recently in November 2020.
Now, amidst a major hiring spree and rare new activity at a nearby Los Angeles port, SpaceX is clearly gearing up to return its SLC-4E launch pad to active duty.
B1049 began its career in Florida (Telstar 18V), moved to Vandenberg for its second flight (Iridium-8), went back to Florida for seven Starlink missions, and is once again returning to the best coast.— Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) May 27, 2021
Both recent West Coast Falcon 9 missions hosted booster landings at LZ-4, a landing zone situated a little over 1000 feet (300m) away from the launch pad. That freed up SpaceX to ship former West Coast drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRT) across the Panama Canal in August 2019, where it ultimately joined the company’s Florida rocket recovery fleet in early 2020 to support a major launch cadence ramp.
As a partial result, SpaceX was able launch Falcon 9 26 times in 2020, beating the previous record – 21 flights – by almost a quarter. In 2021, SpaceX is well on its way to smashing that annual launch record again and has completed 16 orbital launches with seven full months left in the year. That cadence is pushing SpaceX’s launch pads, recovery ships, and booster fleet to their limits. Due to the voracious demands of SpaceX’s almost weekly launch cadence, the company would only be shipping a workhorse booster to Vandenberg if there was a pressing need for it.
Said to be Falcon 9 B1049 by Next Spaceflight and NASASpaceflight reporter Michael Baylor, the booster that arrived at Vandenberg Air Force Base on Thursday has flown nine times – two of which it completed in February and May 2021. B1049 hasn’t been the most rapidly reusable of the fleet and is the oldest Falcon booster still operational after debuting in September 2018. However, SpaceX’s SLC-4E is relatively old itself and recruiting documents distributed as recently as 2021 indicated that the company’s West Coast resurgence was targeting a maximum cadence of one launch per month.
Virtually all of those missions will carry the company’s own Starlink satellites. On Wednesday, May 26th, SpaceX completed its 28th operational East Coast Starlink launch, effectively completing the first ‘tranche’ of the constellation once the satellites already in space reach their operational orbits. In April, SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell stated that polar Starlink launches would begin not long after that 28-launch milestones.
The day before B1049 arrived, SpaceX filed the first regulatory documents for at least six Vandenberg Starlink launches between July 2021 and January 2022 – one mission per month. It’s hard to say when the first launch will come. With B1049 now on site, FCC permits in work, and a new berth lease active in Port of Long Beach, the only real piece of the equation missing is a drone ship to support polar Starlink launches. According to said FCC documents, SpaceX will continue to push Falcon 9 to its limits on the West Coast, recovering boosters 640 km (~400 mi) downrange after polar Starlink launches.
SpaceX’s two operational drone ships – OCISLY and JRTI – currently have their hands full on the East Coast. Transporting either to California will take several weeks, limiting SpaceX’s East Coast launch cadence during that period. SpaceX and its contractors are currently hard at work completing a third drone ship – A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG), but past experience suggests that the vessel is at least a few months away from completion.
Once a drone ship has arrived at SpaceX’s new West Coast docks, though, the company will have almost everything it needs to kick off polar Starlink launches.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
