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SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lands for the last time ahead of risky in-flight abort test

Falcon 9 B1048 returned to Port Canaveral on Feb. 24 after the rocket's third successful launch and landing. (Tom Cross)

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SpaceX’s latest successful launch and landing has wrapped up with Israeli Moon lander Beresheet on its way to Earth’s neighbor, Indonesian communications satellite PSN-6 headed to its final orbit, and the second thrice-flown Falcon 9 Block 5 booster safely returned to Port Canaveral aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY).

Known as Falcon 9 B1048, its third successful landing and recovery will almost certainly be this booster’s last after its fourth launch was officially assigned to a critical Crew Dragon launch abort test, one that the booster is very unlikely to survive. According to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, that test could occur as early as April and will push the first flight-proven Crew Dragon space capsule to its limits.

https://twitter.com/_TomCross_/status/1099688043009753088

After weathering what Musk also described as the toughest reentry and heating conditions yet experience by a Falcon 9 booster meant for recovery, Falcon 9 B1048 landing (almost) flawlessly aboard drone ship OCISLY, stationed roughly 700 km (430 mi) off the Florida coast. Hinted at by the booster’s very slight lean on the recovery vessel’s deck, B1048 most likely cut thrust (or ran out of fuel) just before the optimal stop point, causing the rocket to fall a few unintended feet onto OCISLY and eat into part of the aluminum honeycomb ‘crush-core’ present on all Falcon landing legs.

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In essence, that crushable aluminum acts as a very rough form of emergency suspension meant to minimize potential damage to the fragile structure of Falcon booster propellant tanks at the cost of its landing legs. In the case of B1048’s third landing, the lean appears to be no more than a few degrees – scarcely out of the ordinary, at least relative to past leaning boosters. Most notably, Falcon 9 B1023 experienced a similar anomaly and a far worse lean after its first landing, an experience that did not apparently impact its ability to launch for the second time as a side booster for Falcon Heavy’s inaugural launch.

 

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B1048’s slight departure from a perfect trajectory should thus pose no problem for in-place plans for the rocket’s fourth (and likely final) launch. Known as Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort (IFA) test, SpaceX specifically requested the inclusion of a second abort test (above and beyond NASA’s testing requirements) to fully verify that astronauts could be pulled to safety at any point during launch. In 2015, the company completed a pad abort test of Crew Dragon, demonstrating that the spacecraft could escape from a failing rocket while static on the launch pad. The in-flight abort is precisely what it sounds like: a demonstration that Crew Dragon can safely escape a failing rocket while in flight. More than simply being in flight, the goal is to demonstrate a successful abort at the point of peak aerodynamic stress of Falcon 9 and Dragon, known as Max Q.

For Cargo Dragon launches, Falcon 9 has typically averaged dynamic forces of about 25 kPa (~4 psi), roughly equivalent to 2.5 tons of force per square meter. During launch, either the payload fairing or Cargo/Crew Dragon are subjected directly to those forces, often requiring a significant period of lower throttle to mitigate the forces those sensitive assemblies experience. Given that Crew Dragon’s abort scenario accelerates the capsule and trunk from a relative speed of zero to nearly 350 mph (150 m/s) in five seconds, the dynamic forces (i.e. mechanical loads and heating) the spacecraft is experiencing could jump 50% or more almost instantaneously.

 

After Crew Dragon aborts, the Falcon 9 stack – featuring B1048 and a full-fidelity upper stage with a mass simulator in place of its MVac engine – will be instantaneously exposed to those same dynamic forces, experientially equivalent to bellyflopping from an Olympic-height diving platform. The upper stage may actually be better off than the booster thanks to the generally smooth dome at its stern, whereas Falcon 9’s booster would have its interstage – a deep, open cylinder – exposed to the same airflow if or when the upper stage is torn away. At the point of abort, Falcon 9 will most likely be in the process of shutting down its Merlin 1D engines, effectively removing the booster’s control authority and leaving it at the mercy of the atmosphere. SpaceX’s CRS-7 Cargo Dragon failure (caused by the second stage losing structural integrity mid-flight) is actually a decent representation of what is likely to happen to B1048 and its upper stage.

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Given the potential destructive power B1048 will face, not to mention the fact that the booster will likely not have grid fins or landing legs installed, today’s recovery will probably be the last time the rocket returns to port and prepares for another launch. Explicitly dependent upon the refurbishment of DM-1’s Crew Dragon capsule, SpaceX’s in-flight abort is not expected to occur until June 2019, although Musk has indicated that the aspirational target is to perform the test as early as April, perhaps less than 60 days after the capsule is scheduled to land in the Atlantic Ocean.


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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

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Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.

The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.

As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.

Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.

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The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.

Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.

That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.

Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.

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Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.

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SpaceX considering confidential IPO filing this March: report

The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to confidentially file for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as March. The filing could pave the way for a June listing at a valuation that may exceed $1.75 trillion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history.

The update was initially reported by Bloomberg News, which cited information shared by people reportedly familiar with the matter. 

As per the publication, a confidential filing allows a company to receive regulatory feedback before publicly releasing its financials. Bloomberg’s source, however, noted that the timing of SpaceX’s IPO is still under discussion and plans could change.

SpaceX did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

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A March submission would mark the clearest step yet toward bringing Elon Musk’s private space company into public markets. People familiar with the preparations said the offering could raise as much as $50 billion. That would surpass the $29 billion debut of Saudi Aramco in 2019, currently the largest IPO on record.

Major banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. are reportedly positioned for senior roles in the transaction. SpaceX is also said to be considering a dual-class structure that would allow insiders, including Musk, to retain enhanced voting control.

Satellite communications provider EchoStar Corp., which holds a stake in SpaceX, reportedly saw its shares rise following news of the potential filing.

At a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would immediately have a larger market cap than all but five of the companies traded in the S&P 500 index. That figure would place it ahead of Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. by market capitalization, trailing only a small group of mega-cap firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp.

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The scale of the proposed valuation reflects SpaceX’s dominance in orbital launch services and its Starlink satellite network, which serves millions of users globally. The company has also outlined long-term expansion plans tied to higher Starship launch cadence, orbital infrastructure, and lunar development initiatives.

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Elon Musk outlines plan for first Starship tower catch attempt

Musk confirmed that Starship V3 Ship 1 (SN1) is headed for ground tests and expressed strong confidence in the updated vehicle design.

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Credit: SpaceX/X

Elon Musk has clarified when SpaceX will first attempt to catch Starship’s upper stage with its launch tower. The CEO’s update provides the clearest teaser yet for the spacecraft’s recovery roadmap.

Musk shared the details in recent posts on X. In his initial post, Musk confirmed that Starship V3 Ship 1 (SN1) is headed for ground tests and expressed strong confidence in the updated vehicle design.

“Starship V3 SN1 headed for ground tests. I am highly confident that the V3 design will achieve full reusability,” Musk wrote.

In a follow-up post, Musk addressed when SpaceX would attempt to catch the upper stage using the launch tower’s robotic arms. 

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“Should note that SpaceX will only try to catch the ship with the tower after two perfect soft landings in the ocean. The risk of the ship breaking up over land needs to be very low,” Musk clarified. 

His remarks suggest that SpaceX is deliberately reducing risk before attempting a tower catch of Starship’s upper stage. Such a milestone would mark a major step towards the full reuse of the Starship system.

SpaceX is currently targeting the first Starship V3 flight of 2026 this coming March. The spacecraft’s V3 iteration is widely viewed as a key milestone in SpaceX’s long-term strategy to make Starship fully reusable. 

Starship V3 features a number of key upgrades over its previous iterations. The vehicle is equipped with SpaceX’s Raptor V3 engines, which are designed to deliver significantly higher thrust than earlier versions while reducing cost and weight. 

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The V3 design is also expected to be optimized for manufacturability, a critical step if SpaceX intends to scale the spacecraft’s production toward frequent launches for Starlink, lunar missions, and eventually Mars. 

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