After an unusual cadence downtick in the third quarter of the year, SpaceX looks set to round out the last several weeks of 2021 with a burst of Falcon 9 launches from all three of its East and West Coast pads.
NASA confirmed in a November 22nd briefing that the rocket is in perfect condition and that weather conditions will be 90% favorable for Falcon 9’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) launch on Tuesday, November 23rd. On the opposite coast, SpaceX completed recovery operations for a back-to-back-to-back Crew Dragon splashdown, Crew Dragon launch, and Starlink launch; returning a Dragon, two well-worn Falcon 9 boosters, and a payload fairing to port between November 13th and 18th.
That’s left SpaceX’s East Coast recovery fleet and team about 10 days to prefer for a busy December of (potentially) even more Falcon launches and landings.
Following DART on November 23rd or 24th, SpaceX has scheduled its 16th Starlink launch of the year – cryptically deemed “Starlink 4-3” – no earlier than (NET) 6:20 pm EST (23:20 UTC), Wednesday, December 1st. Carrying another 15-ton (~33,000 lb) batch of 53 laser-linked Starlink V1.5 satellites, an unknown flight-proven Falcon 9 booster (potentially B1049, B0152, B1053, B1060, B1061, B1063, B1067, or even the just-launched B1058) will send the spacecraft on their way to space from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral LC-40 pad just 18 days after its last Starlink mission.
Up next, incorrectly surmised to be destined for Starlink 4-1 when it was spotted in transport on November 4th, Falcon 9 B1062 will likely support the launch of NASA’s tiny Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) spacecraft from Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A. Set to be the booster’s fourth payload in 12 months, Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the minuscule ~300 kg (~650 lb) observatory to low Earth orbit no earlier than (NET) 1am EST (06:00 UTC), Thursday, December 9th. Unless there are surprise copassengers, it will be the smallest dedicated payload ever launched by Falcon 9, beating out NASA’s 362 kg (798 lb) TESS exoplanet observatory. The booster will likely return to Cape Canaveral for a touchdown at a SpaceX Landing Zone (LZ).
Up next, another mystery Falcon booster is scheduled to launch the second of a new pair of Turkish geostationary (GEO) communications satellites NET 10:58 pm EST, December 18th (03:58 UTC 19 Dec) from LC-40. The 4500 kg (~10,000 lb) Turksat 5B satellite will ultimately join its 5A twin on orbit and support a variety of communications needs.
On the East Coast, barring major delays or an out-of-the-blue Starlink mission, SpaceX’s last launch of the year will be Cargo Dragon 2’s CRS-24 space station resupply run, which is currently set to launch at 5:06 am EST (10:06 UTC) on December 21st (delayed from December 4th).
Finally, CEO Elon Musk expects SpaceX to launch at least one more Starlink mission (on top of Starlink 4-3) before the end of 2021. Based solely on pad turnaround timing, the most likely time for that mission is in the last week or two of December – about a month after DART if on the West Coast or 10-12 days after Turksat 5B on the East Coast. If all goes to plan, Falcon 9 will end the year having just completed its 30th orbital launch of 2021.
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SpaceX just picked up another $1.6 billion from the Pentagon, with the U.S. Space Force awarding two task orders worth $1.6 billion to fly 18 Falcon 9 missions from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through the end of 2027. The launches will carry satellites for the Space Based Sensing and Targeting portfolio, a set of programs meant to help the military detect and track airborne threats and relay that information across forces in near real time.
The award falls under National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1, the Space Force’s faster, commercial style procurement track for missions that do not require the military’s most demanding certification process. It is also the largest single order publicly disclosed under that program so far, and the first task order issued since the Space Force nearly tripled Lane 1’s contract ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion on July 17.
SpaceX to become America’s Military data backbone for missiles, drones, and warfighters
Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, said the entire process, from identifying the requirement to signing the contract, took about two months, including a month set aside for companies to prepare proposals.
SpaceX is not just launching these satellites. It already holds the contracts to build two of the programs within the same portfolio, $4.16 billion for the Space Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator system and $2.29 billion for the Space Data Network Backbone, which Teslarati covered in May. That means SpaceX is now responsible for both building key pieces of the military’s next generation sensing network and getting them into orbit.
With this latest award, SpaceX’s Pentagon contract total for 2026 alone tops $8 billion, adding to a defense portfolio that already includes the Golden Dome missile defense software group SpaceX joined in April and a string of GPS launches it inherited after ULA’s Vulcan rocket ran into a booster anomaly, which we detailed in March.
Lane 1’s vendor pool technically includes seven companies: SpaceX, ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Stoke Space, Impulse Space, and Relativity Space. In practice, SpaceX remains the only provider with the combination of launch cadence, flight proven Falcon 9 hardware, and West Coast infrastructure to support a campaign requiring roughly one Vandenberg launch a month for the next year and a half.
Some lawmakers have flagged the growing concentration of national security launches with one company as a risk worth watching. For now, the Space Force keeps backing SpaceX, with it being the company that shows up ready to launch.
Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.
SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.
The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.
SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before
Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.
Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean
Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.
We’re sending a ship out to recover Starship https://t.co/fUqUZTITO9
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 28, 2026
This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.
Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims
Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.
The ship landing was precise, meaning that it would have been caught by the tower arms https://t.co/6nbNrRfX9P
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.
It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.
Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.
The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.
Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”
People on Mars in roughly 5 to 7 years.
Mars lander a few years sooner.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 29, 2026
The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”
Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.
Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.
In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.
The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.
SpaceX scores another massive Pentagon deal to support military satellites
Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch
