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SpaceX to round out 2021 with a burst of Falcon launches

(Richard Angle)

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After an unusual cadence downtick in the third quarter of the year, SpaceX looks set to round out the last several weeks of 2021 with a burst of Falcon 9 launches from all three of its East and West Coast pads.

NASA confirmed in a November 22nd briefing that the rocket is in perfect condition and that weather conditions will be 90% favorable for Falcon 9’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) launch on Tuesday, November 23rd. On the opposite coast, SpaceX completed recovery operations for a back-to-back-to-back Crew Dragon splashdown, Crew Dragon launch, and Starlink launch; returning a Dragon, two well-worn Falcon 9 boosters, and a payload fairing to port between November 13th and 18th.

That’s left SpaceX’s East Coast recovery fleet and team about 10 days to prefer for a busy December of (potentially) even more Falcon launches and landings.

Following DART on November 23rd or 24th, SpaceX has scheduled its 16th Starlink launch of the year – cryptically deemed “Starlink 4-3” – no earlier than (NET) 6:20 pm EST (23:20 UTC), Wednesday, December 1st. Carrying another 15-ton (~33,000 lb) batch of 53 laser-linked Starlink V1.5 satellites, an unknown flight-proven Falcon 9 booster (potentially B1049, B0152, B1053, B1060, B1061, B1063, B1067, or even the just-launched B1058) will send the spacecraft on their way to space from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral LC-40 pad just 18 days after its last Starlink mission.

Up next, incorrectly surmised to be destined for Starlink 4-1 when it was spotted in transport on November 4th, Falcon 9 B1062 will likely support the launch of NASA’s tiny Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) spacecraft from Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A. Set to be the booster’s fourth payload in 12 months, Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch the minuscule ~300 kg (~650 lb) observatory to low Earth orbit no earlier than (NET) 1am EST (06:00 UTC), Thursday, December 9th. Unless there are surprise copassengers, it will be the smallest dedicated payload ever launched by Falcon 9, beating out NASA’s 362 kg (798 lb) TESS exoplanet observatory. The booster will likely return to Cape Canaveral for a touchdown at a SpaceX Landing Zone (LZ).

Falcon 9 B1062 and a new upper stage were spotted on the road early this month. (Chance Belloise)

Up next, another mystery Falcon booster is scheduled to launch the second of a new pair of Turkish geostationary (GEO) communications satellites NET 10:58 pm EST, December 18th (03:58 UTC 19 Dec) from LC-40. The 4500 kg (~10,000 lb) Turksat 5B satellite will ultimately join its 5A twin on orbit and support a variety of communications needs.

On the East Coast, barring major delays or an out-of-the-blue Starlink mission, SpaceX’s last launch of the year will be Cargo Dragon 2’s CRS-24 space station resupply run, which is currently set to launch at 5:06 am EST (10:06 UTC) on December 21st (delayed from December 4th).

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The Falcon 9 meant to launch SpaceX’s next West Coast Starlink mission is visible behind DART’s ride to orbit. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Finally, CEO Elon Musk expects SpaceX to launch at least one more Starlink mission (on top of Starlink 4-3) before the end of 2021. Based solely on pad turnaround timing, the most likely time for that mission is in the last week or two of December – about a month after DART if on the West Coast or 10-12 days after Turksat 5B on the East Coast. If all goes to plan, Falcon 9 will end the year having just completed its 30th orbital launch of 2021.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla uber bull Ron Baron says ‘the time to buy the stock is now’

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Credit: Tesla

In a new interview on Wednesday, Tesla uber bull Ron Baron said that anyone looking to buy the company’s stock should do so as soon as they can.

Baron, founder and CEO of Baron Capital and one of Tesla’s most persistent institutional bulls, used a CNBC Squawk Box appearance on Wednesday to deliver a familiar message with fresh urgency: In his opinion, Tesla stock is a buy:

“The time to buy the stock is now. FSD is catching on, and it’s going to be bigger and bigger. 55% of new buyers are buying it (Teslas) with FSD. It’s going to be everywhere. It’s safer.”

The Baron Capital frontman’s case is built around Full Self-Driving. Tesla reported 1.48 million active FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, and company officials have said roughly 55 percent of new North American deliveries left with a subscription enabled.

Baron framed that attach rate as proof the product is moving from enthusiast extra to default expectation, and as a reason software, not just vehicle volume, should drive the next phase of value.

His conviction on Tesla shares is not theoretical, as Baron Capital made its first Tesla investment in 2014, after years of meetings that began around the 2010 IPO roadshow. The firm later built a large SpaceX position starting in 2017.

Baron said those Musk-led bets have generated about $30 billion of the $71 billion in profits Baron Capital has produced for clients. He put the firm’s current exposure at roughly $25 billion in SpaceX and $5 billion in Tesla. Personally, he described SpaceX as his largest holding, at about $5 billion, with about $1.5 billion in Tesla and additional Tesla exposure through the firm’s funds.

That concentration is also a statement of loyalty. Asked about talk of a SpaceX-Tesla combination, Baron said he had already walked Elon Musk through arguments for and against a deal, then declined to repeat them on air. His public position was simpler: “Whatever you decide is better is what I’m going to support,” he said to Musk.

Baron also said that he picked up the farewell edition of the Model S after Tesla decided to sunset the vehicle earlier this year, calling it his favorite car he’s ever driven.

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SpaceX’s next Starship launch is about to attempt its biggest leap yet

SpaceX targets September 22 for Starship Flight 14, its first attempt to reach real orbit.

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SpaceX has set September 22 as the target date for Starship’s 14th test flight, and this one carries a different goal than any of the 13 that came before it. Every previous Starship mission has intentionally flown a suborbital arc, reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launched. Flight 14 is designed to send the craft into a genuine orbit around Earth for the first time.

The launch window opens at 7:15 a.m. Central time at Starbase in South Texas and runs for 75 minutes, pending regulatory approval, according to SpaceX’s mission description published Tuesday. If the flight goes as planned, Starship will circle the planet roughly six times at an altitude near 275 kilometers over about ten hours before a deorbit burn sends it toward a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile, a departure from the Indian Ocean recoveries used on the last several flights.

The mission also marks the first attempt to put a working batch of Starlink V3 satellites into actual service. Flight 13 carried 20 of the new satellites in July, but because that mission never left a suborbital trajectory, the payload reentered along with the ship instead of separating into orbit.

SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit

Each V3 satellite is rated for roughly one terabit per second of downlink capacity, so a successful deployment on Flight 14 would be SpaceX’s largest single jump in network bandwidth since Starlink began flying on Falcon 9.

Flight 13 still did the heavier lifting on the technical side. That July mission flew a deliberately more stressful reentry profile to test Starship’s heat shield, and the ship survived its softest splashdown yet, intact enough for drone inspections shortly after landing. Elon Musk said the flight delivered “all the heat shield data we needed and then some,” a result Teslarati covered in detail when he later said SpaceX had solved the vehicle’s biggest reusability challenge. Flight 14 is where SpaceX starts spending that confidence on an actual orbital insertion rather than another controlled fall back to Earth.

One thing Flight 14 will not attempt is a tower catch of the ship. Musk floated the idea right after Flight 13, but walked the timeline back in August, saying a catch attempt was more likely “in a few months.” The Super Heavy booster will still aim for its own recovery, targeting an offshore landing point in the Gulf of America, the same approach used on recent flights.

September 22 is SpaceX’s own target, not a locked date. Starship’s schedule has slipped before over hardware readiness and FAA sign off, and the company has said as much in its own mission notes. But the plan itself represents the clearest marker yet that Starship is moving from a suborbital test program into something meant to carry paying payloads and, eventually, people.

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Elon Musk gives his most telling Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation yet

Elon Musk hinted a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be coming, and Wall Street is taking notice.

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Elon Musk gave his clearest signal yet that Tesla and SpaceX could eventually combine, telling the All-In Summit in Los Angeles that the two companies’ deepening collaboration makes the question worth asking. Sawyer Merritt first surfaced the highlight on X Tuesday.

Asked directly why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate given how closely they already work together, Musk told hosts at the summit: “Great question there. With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas.” SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, who joined Musk on stage, added that SpaceX personnel have already moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps, saying the businesses are integrating “faster than I thought,” though “not fully integrated yet,”

The comments landed on top of merger speculation that has been building on Wall Street for months. JPMorgan has called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to overlapping ambitions in AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space. Jefferies went further, estimating Musk could retain roughly 55.3 percent voting control in a deal structured without a premium, a scenario that would still leave room for Tesla shareholders to come out ahead. On Kalshi, traders now put the odds of a merger before 2028 at 66 percent.

Tesla’s stake in SpaceX, still under one percent, traces back to its earlier investment in xAI, which converted to SpaceX equity after SpaceX absorbed the AI company. The two are also jointly building Terafab, a chip facility in Austin meant to serve both Tesla’s AI computing needs and SpaceX’s satellite ambitions. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has stood by a 2027 merger timeline for months, and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently floated a similar case, an idea Musk pushed back on directly at the time.

Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking

The timing adds another layer. Tesla has scheduled an October 1 unveiling for its next generation Roadster at a venue near SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas test site, using the phrase “Go for launch” in its promotional material. Both stocks dipped roughly 2 percent Monday before recovering slightly in premarket trading Tuesday, with SpaceX shares up about 0.4 percent and Tesla essentially flat.

Musk stopped short of confirming anything is in motion. But unlike his past denials of a corporate restructuring, this response didn’t rule one out, and it came with Shotwell sitting next to him describing an integration that’s already underway.

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