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SpaceX’s first operational NASA astronaut mission (almost) ready for launch
SpaceX and NASA have completed the last major review standing between Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 and the duo’s operational astronaut launch debut, meaning that a routine static fire test is all that really remains.
On Thursday, November 5, the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule – named “Resilience” – of the first operational SpaceX mission to and from the International Space Station (ISS) as a part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) arrived at the Launch Complex 39A hangar at the Kennedy Space Center.
SpaceX is one of two commercial partners that NASA works with to develop a reliable system of crew transportation to and from the International Space Station. Since the retirement of NASA’s space shuttle program, the United States has been reliant on Russia and its Soyuz program to fulfill the task of maintaining an American presence aboard the ISS. With SpaceX’s first operational CCP mission – dubbed Crew-1 – a new era of commercialized crewed spaceflight will be ushered in.
On November 10th, SpaceX and NASA officials convened for a press conference following the successful completion of the Crew-1 flight readiness review (FRR) – the last major review standing between the assembled hardware and liftoff. SpaceX senior director of Human Spaceflight Programs Benji Reed listed off an array of historic milestones crossed as part of the FRR, noting that the review’s completion means that NASA has officially certified SpaceX for operational astronaut launches, making it the first and only private company in the world capable of safely launching humans.
Additionally, Reed revealed that Crew-1 and Cargo Dragon 2’s imminent December 2nd launch debut will together ring in a potentially unprecedented era in commercial spaceflight. Crew-1 – barring surprises in orbit – will further mark the longest continuous American spaceflight ever, beating a record set by a Skylab mission in the early 1970s if Crew Dragon remains in orbit for the full planned 180-210 days.
“Over the next 15 months, we will fly seven Crew and Cargo Dragon missions for NASA. That means that starting with Crew-1, there will be a continuous presence of SpaceX Dragons on orbit. Starting with the cargo mission CRS-21, every time we launch a Dragon, there will be two Dragons in space – simultaneously – for extended periods of time. Truly, we are returning the United States’ capability for full launch services and we are very, very honored to be a part of that.”
Benji Reed, SpaceX – November 10th, 2020
On a more technical level, Reed noted that SpaceX has decided to replace a component of Falcon 9’s upper stage ‘purge system’ and will bring the whole rocket horizontal later today (November 10th). That swap will delay Falcon 9’s Crew-1 static fire from ~8pm today to ~8pm on Wednesday, November 11th. The Crew-1 mission remains on track to launch no earlier than (NET) 7:49 pm EDT, Saturday, November 14th.
The Crew’s All Here
Three days later, after departing Johnson Space Center via a chartered flight from Ellington Field on Sunday, November 8, the four crew members of the Crew-1 mission arrived in Florida by plane at Kennedy Space Center’s former space shuttle landing facility.
Upon arrival, the crew members – NASA astronauts Victor Glover, Mike Hopkins, Shannon Walker, and Soichi Noguchi of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency – were greeted by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Agency Deputy Administrator Jim Morhard, Kennedy Space Center Director Bob Cabana, and manager of JAXA’s ISS program, Junichi Sakai.
“Today we are taking another big leap in this transformation in how we do human spaceflight. What we’re talking about here is the commercialization of space. NASA is one customer of many customers in a very robust commercial marketplace in low-Earth orbit,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said.
Final Milestones Ahead of Flight
After arriving at their launch site in Florida, the four-member crew made the short journey to the LC-39A horizontal integration facility acquainting themselves with their “Resilience” Dragon capsule and the SpaceX Falcon 9 booster that will soon propel them to space. The Dragon capsule had been oriented horizontally and mated with the Falcon 9 first and second stages.
Initially targeting liftoff on October 31, the Crew-1 mission experienced a delay after the SpaceX GPSIII-SV04 B1062 Falcon 9 vehicle suffered an early start anomaly initiating an autonomous pad abort at T-2 seconds.
As the GPS B1062 and Crew-1 B1061 Falcon 9 vehicles were likely built simultaneously, SpaceX and NASA decided to take time to inspect all engines, as well as those of the upcoming NASA, European Space Agency Michael Freilich Sentinel-6 booster, B1063. After replacing a number of engines, both missions are on track to launch before the end of the month.
On Monday, November 9, SpaceX and NASA managers began the tedious process of completing a flight readiness review. The meeting that extends an entire day, or two, involves managers from SpaceX, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, and the International Space Station program collaborating in discussion to conduct a joint pre-flight examination of all previous specialized reviews – such as ones done specifically for the Dragon capsule or the Falcon 9 booster. The meeting also serves as an opportunity for every department to discuss and close out any remaining concerns. The meeting began at 9 am on Monday, November 9, and concluded on Tuesday, November 10.
The B1061 Falcon 9 booster and Crew Dragon “Resilience” capsule were transported the short distance from the hangar to the launchpad ahead of the test firing of the nine Merlin 1D engines – a final test to certify all flight-critical hardware ahead of the launch attempt. Clearing the final hurdle before flight, SpaceX officially acknowledged that the Crew-1 mission is targeting liftoff at 7:49pm EST (0049 UTC on Nov. 15) on Saturday, November 14 from LC-39A at the Kennedy Space Center.
Following liftoff, the Dragon capsule “Resilience” will separate from the Falcon 9 first stage and continue to propel its crew on an uphill journey to rendevous with the ISS approximately seven and a half hours later.
Live hosted NASA and SpaceX coverage of the events will begin approximately three and half hours prior to liftoff at 3:30 pm EST and will be available on NASA TV and the SpaceX website.
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Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
