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SpaceX’s first operational NASA astronaut mission (almost) ready for launch

The Crew-1 SpaceX Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon capsule, "Resilience," are pictured in the LC-39A hagar ahead of the final static fire test. (SpaceX)

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SpaceX and NASA have completed the last major review standing between Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 and the duo’s operational astronaut launch debut, meaning that a routine static fire test is all that really remains.

On Thursday, November 5, the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule – named “Resilience” – of the first operational SpaceX mission to and from the International Space Station (ISS) as a part of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) arrived at the Launch Complex 39A hangar at the Kennedy Space Center.

SpaceX is one of two commercial partners that NASA works with to develop a reliable system of crew transportation to and from the International Space Station. Since the retirement of NASA’s space shuttle program, the United States has been reliant on Russia and its Soyuz program to fulfill the task of maintaining an American presence aboard the ISS. With SpaceX’s first operational CCP mission – dubbed Crew-1 – a new era of commercialized crewed spaceflight will be ushered in.

The SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-1 mission arrived at Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A on Thursday, Nov. 5. (SpaceX)

On November 10th, SpaceX and NASA officials convened for a press conference following the successful completion of the Crew-1 flight readiness review (FRR) – the last major review standing between the assembled hardware and liftoff. SpaceX senior director of Human Spaceflight Programs Benji Reed listed off an array of historic milestones crossed as part of the FRR, noting that the review’s completion means that NASA has officially certified SpaceX for operational astronaut launches, making it the first and only private company in the world capable of safely launching humans.

Additionally, Reed revealed that Crew-1 and Cargo Dragon 2’s imminent December 2nd launch debut will together ring in a potentially unprecedented era in commercial spaceflight. Crew-1 – barring surprises in orbit – will further mark the longest continuous American spaceflight ever, beating a record set by a Skylab mission in the early 1970s if Crew Dragon remains in orbit for the full planned 180-210 days.

“Over the next 15 months, we will fly seven Crew and Cargo Dragon missions for NASA. That means that starting with Crew-1, there will be a continuous presence of SpaceX Dragons on orbit. Starting with the cargo mission CRS-21, every time we launch a Dragon, there will be two Dragons in space – simultaneously – for extended periods of time. Truly, we are returning the United States’ capability for full launch services and we are very, very honored to be a part of that.”

Benji Reed, SpaceX – November 10th, 2020

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On a more technical level, Reed noted that SpaceX has decided to replace a component of Falcon 9’s upper stage ‘purge system’ and will bring the whole rocket horizontal later today (November 10th). That swap will delay Falcon 9’s Crew-1 static fire from ~8pm today to ~8pm on Wednesday, November 11th. The Crew-1 mission remains on track to launch no earlier than (NET) 7:49 pm EDT, Saturday, November 14th.

The Crew’s All Here

Three days later, after departing Johnson Space Center via a chartered flight from Ellington Field on Sunday, November 8, the four crew members of the Crew-1 mission arrived in Florida by plane at Kennedy Space Center’s former space shuttle landing facility.

Upon arrival, the crew members – NASA astronauts Victor Glover, Mike Hopkins, Shannon Walker, and Soichi Noguchi of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency – were greeted by NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Agency Deputy Administrator Jim Morhard, Kennedy Space Center Director Bob Cabana, and manager of JAXA’s ISS program, Junichi Sakai.

“Today we are taking another big leap in this transformation in how we do human spaceflight. What we’re talking about here is the commercialization of space. NASA is one customer of many customers in a very robust commercial marketplace in low-Earth orbit,” NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said.

From left, NASA astronauts Shannon Walker, Victor Gover and Michael Hopkins, along with Soichi Noguchi of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) board plane to travel to Kennedy Space Center ahead of the SpaceX, NASA Crew-1 mission to the International Space Station. (NASA/James Blair)

Final Milestones Ahead of Flight

After arriving at their launch site in Florida, the four-member crew made the short journey to the LC-39A horizontal integration facility acquainting themselves with their “Resilience” Dragon capsule and the SpaceX Falcon 9 booster that will soon propel them to space. The Dragon capsule had been oriented horizontally and mated with the Falcon 9 first and second stages.

Initially targeting liftoff on October 31, the Crew-1 mission experienced a delay after the SpaceX GPSIII-SV04 B1062 Falcon 9 vehicle suffered an early start anomaly initiating an autonomous pad abort at T-2 seconds.

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As the GPS B1062 and Crew-1 B1061 Falcon 9 vehicles were likely built simultaneously, SpaceX and NASA decided to take time to inspect all engines, as well as those of the upcoming NASA, European Space Agency Michael Freilich Sentinel-6 booster, B1063. After replacing a number of engines, both missions are on track to launch before the end of the month.

The astronauts for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-1 mission visit the Crew Dragon spacecraft, named Resilience by the crew, inside the SpaceX hangar at Launch Complex 39A on Nov. 8, 2020. (SpaceX)
The Crew-1 Resilience Dragon capsule and Falcon 9 booster are pictured inside of the LC-39A hangar ahead of the final static fire test. (SpaceX)

On Monday, November 9, SpaceX and NASA managers began the tedious process of completing a flight readiness review. The meeting that extends an entire day, or two, involves managers from SpaceX, NASA’s Commercial Crew Program, and the International Space Station program collaborating in discussion to conduct a joint pre-flight examination of all previous specialized reviews – such as ones done specifically for the Dragon capsule or the Falcon 9 booster. The meeting also serves as an opportunity for every department to discuss and close out any remaining concerns. The meeting began at 9 am on Monday, November 9, and concluded on Tuesday, November 10.

NASA and SpaceX leadership participate in a Flight Readiness Review (FRR) for the agency’s SpaceX Crew-1 mission at Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Nov. 9, 2020. (NASA/Kim Shiflett)

The B1061 Falcon 9 booster and Crew Dragon “Resilience” capsule were transported the short distance from the hangar to the launchpad ahead of the test firing of the nine Merlin 1D engines – a final test to certify all flight-critical hardware ahead of the launch attempt. Clearing the final hurdle before flight, SpaceX officially acknowledged that the Crew-1 mission is targeting liftoff at 7:49pm EST (0049 UTC on Nov. 15) on Saturday, November 14 from LC-39A at the Kennedy Space Center.

Following liftoff, the Dragon capsule “Resilience” will separate from the Falcon 9 first stage and continue to propel its crew on an uphill journey to rendevous with the ISS approximately seven and a half hours later.

Live hosted NASA and SpaceX coverage of the events will begin approximately three and half hours prior to liftoff at 3:30 pm EST and will be available on NASA TV and the SpaceX website.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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Tesla Cybercab spotted testing on public roads for the first time

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it.

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Credit: Teslarati

The Tesla Cybercab has been spotted testing on public roads for the first time, marking a substantial step forward in the vehicle’s development.

The car was spotted just minutes from Tesla’s Engineering Headquarters in Los Altos, California. There are a few interesting tidbits we can gather from the photo and the information shared with it:

The vehicle had a driver and side view mirrors equipped on it, which seems to be pretty expected, especially at this stage.

Tesla might have been using its Full Self-Driving software with the vehicle as it enters this new stage of testing on public roads. This seems most likely, especially as the car, which has long been developed to be void of a steering wheel and pedals, will totally rely on autonomous tech to transport one or two passengers to their destination.

Additionally, side view mirrors are required by law at delivery, and Tesla was likely looking to keep things as safe and elementary as possible, especially with this early stage of testing.

As this is the first time the vehicle has been spotted on public roads and the first time it was likely testing on them, Tesla was being cautious.

There have been a lot of developments with Cybercab over the past few weeks, as the car has been spotted testing on the Fremont Factory’s test track, units have been seen outside of Gigafactory Texas’s crash testing facility, and there has been some additional speculation about what the vehicle’s standard equipment will be.

There have also been quite a few job postings by Tesla for manufacturing and production roles related to Cybercab over the past few weeks.

Yesterday, Tesla’s Board Chair, Robyn Denholm, revealed that the company could end up building Cybercab with a steering wheel and pedals, contrary to what Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have wanted to do.

Tesla Cybercab might be getting a huge change

The vehicle has yet to reach that stage of regulatory testing, but Tesla wants to start volume production in Q2. If it wants to release the vehicle without any manual controls, that means that Full Self-Driving will need to be completed within the next eight months.

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Tesla hints it could see ‘a few more vehicles’ released soon

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

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Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm hinted the company could see “a few more vehicles” coming out and being released soon, although there is no indication of what could be on the way based on her comments.

However, Tesla has hinted toward several potential releases in the coming years, as other executives, including Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen, have talked briefly about what could be on the way.

Denholm said on CNBC yesterday that “we do have a few other vehicles coming out.”

It was a vague and almost cryptic sentence, as, in all honesty, it was not completely clear whether she was talking about recent releases that are just making their way to market, like the Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” or new vehicles altogether.

Nevertheless, it’s worth dissecting.

Tesla “Standard” Models

On October 7, Tesla launched the Standard Model 3 and Model Y, stripped-down versions of their now “Premium” siblings. The Standard trims lack premium features like leather seats, a rear touchscreen, and a glass roof, among other features.

Tesla begins deliveries of its affordable Model Y Standard

These cars are just starting to be delivered for the first time, so it is possible that Denholm was referring to these cars.

Potential Model 2 Hint?

There has always been a looming vehicle model that many Tesla fans and owners have been intrigued by: the Model 2.

This car was hinted at being the $25,000 model that Tesla was rumored to be developing, and many thought that was the vehicle that would be released earlier this month, not the Standard Model 3 and Model Y.

Instead, the Model 2 could be something that would enable Tesla to reach an entirely new consumer base, including those who are not able to swing the payment for the company’s more premium offerings.

It seems Tesla will have to launch some sort of extremely affordable model in the future, and with the Cybercab being slotted at that rough price point, it would not be out of the question for it to be in the realm of possibility for future releases.

It’s worth noting, however, that it is probably unlikely this will happen. Tesla is so deadset focused on autonomy, it seems Cybercab would take extreme precedence over the unconfirmed “Model 2.”

Cybertruck-inspired SUV

Tesla fans have been begging the company to develop a full-size SUV that would compete with the Ford Expedition or Chevrolet Tahoe, but the company has not given any indication that this would be something it would build.

Nevertheless, there was a very subtle hint in a recent promotional clip that showed a Cyber SUV mock-up placed strategically next to a clay model of a Model 3:

Tesla appears to be mulling a Cyber SUV design

The Model X is simply not what people want when it comes to an SUV, as it does not have the seating capacity and cargo space that many need with a full-sized SUV.

This issue, in particular, has been one that has been extremely relevant to the company’s future lineup as consumers have shown they would be interested in a Tesla vehicle that fit this description.

Additionally, von Holzhausen said in September that a Cyber SUV or a smaller electric pickup with a more traditional design is “definitely things we’ve considered…We’re working on so many innovative and fun things.”

Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck

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Investor's Corner

Tesla enters new stability phase, firm upgrades and adjusts outlook

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla is entering a new phase of stability in terms of vehicle deliveries, one firm wrote in a new note during the final week of October, backing its position with an upgrade and price target increase on the stock.

Dmitriy Pozdnyakov of Freedom Capital upgraded his outlook on Tesla shares from “Sell” to “Hold” on Wednesday, and increased the price target from $338 to $406.

While most firms are interested in highlighting Tesla’s future growth, which will be catalyzed mostly by the advent of self-driving vehicles, autonomy, and the company’s all-in mentality on AI and robotics, Pozdnyakov is solely focusing on vehicle deliveries.

The analyst wrote in a note to investors that he believes Tesla’s updated vehicle lineup, which includes its new affordable “Standard” trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, is going to stabilize the company’s delivery volumes and return the company to annual growth.

Tesla launches two new affordable models with ‘Standard’ Model 3, Y offerings

Tesla launched the new affordable Model 3 and Model Y “Standard” trims on October 7, which introduced two stripped-down, less premium versions of the all-electric sedan and crossover.

They are both priced at under $40,000, with the Model 3 at $37,990 and the Model Y at $39,990, and while these prices may not necessarily be what consumers were expecting, they are well under what Kelley Blue Book said was the average new car transaction price for September, which swelled above $50,000.

Despite the rollout of these two new models, it is interesting to hear that a Wall Street firm would think that Tesla is going to return to more stable delivery figures and potentially enter a new growth phase.

Many Wall Street firms have been more focused on AI, Robotics, and Tesla’s self-driving project, which are the more prevalent things that will drive investor growth over the next few years.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, tends to focus on the company’s prowess in AI and self-driving. However, he did touch on vehicle deliveries in the coming years in a recent note.

Ives said in a note on October 2:

“While EV demand is expected to fall with the EV tax credit expiration, this was a great bounce-back quarter for TSLA to lay the groundwork for deliveries moving forward, but there is still work to do to gain further ground from a delivery perspective.”

Tesla has some things to figure out before it can truly consider guaranteed stability from a delivery standpoint. Initially, the next two quarters will be a crucial way to determine demand without the $7,500 EV tax credit. It will also begin to figure out if its new affordable models are attractive enough at their current price point to win over consumers.

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