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SpaceX's first Space Force launch delayed by coronavirus pandemic
Officials say that SpaceX’s first mission for the Space Force – also the company’s second upgraded GPS III satellite launch – has been significantly delayed by the United States’ growing coronavirus outbreak.
Only recently folded into the Space Force, a Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) press release discussed the decision in greater detail, confirming that the center itself has chosen to delay SpaceX’s GPS III SV03 launch. Instead of a technical fault or issues processing the rocket or satellite, SMC is delaying the launch to “minimize the potential of COVID-19 exposure to the launch crew and early-orbit operators,” possibly referring to any combination of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, or SpaceX employees.
This is now the second SpaceX launch to be delayed by the coronavirus pandemic after the Argentinian government’s strict response force its space agency (CONAE) to postpone its SAOCOM 1B Earth observation satellite launch. Viewed a different way, SpaceX’s next two commercial (non-Starlink) launches have each been delayed a month or two. However, it’s reasonable to assume that those delays are more or less indefinite, given that they both appear to be contingent upon the end of the United States’ coronavirus outbreak.
As a result, it’s looking increasingly likely that SpaceX’s next two or three Falcon 9 launches will all be internal Starlink missions, carrying several more batches of 60 communications satellites into orbit. SpaceX’s next Starlink mission – the seventh overall – is expected to launch no earlier than April, likely in the second half of the month. Thanks to SpaceX’s highly successful Starlink factory, at least another two additional batches of satellites are ready or nearly ready for launch, waiting their turn for a Falcon 9 rocket.
SpaceX’s fleet of flight-proven rockets has rapidly diminished after two boosters failed their landing attempts in February and March 2020, making it substantially harder to support an aggressive Starlink launch cadence. Excluding two Falcon Heavy Block 5 side boosters flown in April and June 2019, SpaceX’s fleet is now down to three booster: B1049, B1051, and B1059.
Thankfully, although production slowed down as SpaceX’s Hawthorne factory focus shifted more towards payload fairings and upper stages, the company has continued to build Falcon 9 boosters. Currently, boosters B1058 and B1060 have passed their McGregor, Texas acceptance tests and are awaiting their first launches in Cape Canaveral, Florida. B1058 should become the first SpaceX rocket ever to launch astronauts as early as late May 2020, while B1060 – assigned to launch the GPS III SV03 navigation satellite will now have to wait until June 30th at the earliest for its debut.
Assuming everything goes as planned, both B1058 and B1060 will land shortly after their respective NET May and NET June launches, potentially freeing the boosters up for refurbishment and reflight on future SpaceX missions – Starlink included.
Unfortunately, future launch delays are extremely likely due to the fact that the United States remains in what appears to be the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic. SpaceX itself already has six confirmed COVID-19 cases at its Hawthorne, California factory and headquarters, a number that could easily continue to grow without strict and immediate interventions. For now, though, the company appears set on forging ahead in this time of crisis.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
